The American Spectator

Rudy campaign manager Michael DuHaime and pollster/strategist Brent Seaborn held a media call. Their main message: if you count the delegates and don't buy into the "Iowa/NH momentum trumps all" theory, Rudy is well positioned to take the nomination. They note that the early states, aside from Florida with a winner take all pot of 57 delegates, apportion delegates among the candidates so the Florida winner will likely go into February 5 with the lead. Of the 1038 February 5 delegates DuHaime points to the winner take all states -- NY, NJ, CT and Del -- as well as California and Illinois as places where Rudy is poised to win as well as states like Georgia and Alabama where Rudy is in second and can pick up more delegates. Nationally they stressed that Rudy is ticking up over 30% and seemed more than pleased to point out Huck's success in challenging Romney in some states. What about those early states? They emphasized the amount of money Romney has spent in early states ($16-17M) and in "his own backyard" in NH (approximately $4M on TV) and noted that despite that advantage Romney has been flat in those states since May and June. As for NH, they argued that Romney has an "institutional advantage" and is well know from his days as Governor and that despite weeks of TV time McCain has not moved up. (No clue yet when they will go up with TV.) Bottom line: they continued to stress that Rudy has "multiple paths to victory" and declined to label their effort as only a "February 5" strategy. We'll find out in a couple of months whether they are right.