There are two ways Paul could affect the race if his fundraising
success is matched by a stronger than expected showing at the
ballot box. First, any top-tier candidate who finishes behind Paul
in New Hampshire or Iowa will face increased pressure to depart
from the race, even if Paul didn't actually take votes from
them.
Second, a respectable showing by Paul will create a narrative
that a critical mass of Republicans have turned against the war,
even if much of his support doesn't come from traditional
Republicans. Dave Weigel makes a different but related point about
GOP war politics in a Hit and Run post about the Paul haul.
Paul has attracted a following among people who haven't had a
candidate to root for in a long time, and in some cases ever in
their lives. I think his candidacy is to a certain extent about
providing these voters and his Old Right
conservatism a home in the GOP. Will he succeed? Well, first
we'll have to see if Paul can turn his following out to vote.
topics:
Conservatism
