So what does it all mean? In some sense not much has changed in
the last 5-6 months. If you look at the handy RCP national poll chart, comparing
May/June and the present, what strikes you is that aside from
substituting Thompson for McCain in second place the race has
remained fairly steady in the national polls. Yes, Huckabee is
gaining of late but the basic structure of the race is the same,
albeit with a different runner up. To some extent the same is true
in the
RCP early state poll averages. Romney leads in Iowa and NH but
nowhere else. Rudy is a nose ahead in SC(another poll may be out
shortly according to Politico) and has significant leads in other
states. So the essential question remains the same: Will Romney's
lead in early states hold and give him enough of a bounce to vault
him ahead of Rudy in everything that follows? So the more things
have changed, the more debates we have had, and after the
appearance of Huckabee and Thompson and the tens of millions raised
and spent we are back to where we have been all along. And
therefore beneath that broader questions are smaller queries: 1)
Will Huck get his organizational act together and dent Romney in
Iowa ? 2) Has Rudy, still to run TV ads in NH, found in the Granite
State an electorate more in tune with his appeal than Romney's and
the chance to knock out his most viable foe? 3) If Hillary sweeps
in Iowa and NH do Independents pour into Michigan and Florida,
affecting the race in these two early states? All this explains
why Romney is in Iowa for three days and Rudy spends the better
part of the week in NH.