I just looked at the full poll results, and the real interesting
story is on the Democratic side, where Obama has gained 7 points
since the last poll to pull into a statistical tie with Clinton (he
trails 28.9 percent to 26.6 percent), while Edwards dropped by 6
points. When I was in Iowa, the sense I got was that a lot of
people still liked Edwards, but were also sensing that he didn't
have what it takes to win. If his voters begin to rally around
Obama as the anti-Hillary candidate, and Obama is able to pull off
a victory in Iowa, it's the one thing that has the potential to
shake up things on the Democratic side at this point. Clinton would
still be favored to win the nomination even if she were to lose
Iowa, but it would turn the race into a real battle rather than a
repeat of Tyson vs. Spinks. In other findings, about 58 percent
of Democrats are very or somewhat likely to change their minds,
while about 69 percent of Republicans could shift their
support.