The American Spectator

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Back in December, Dave Weigel urged his readers to keep this prediction of Jim Henley's in mind:

As a reminder, the winter months are when insurgent activity drops, so look for a spate of stories about how "the surge is working" in the early months of 2007. Then look for everything to fall apart again as summer turns toward fall.

I think we can safely say that summer has turned into fall, and that this forecast has proven dead wrong. "Greyhawk" at Mudville Gazette notes the latest news:

Overall trends show a significant drop in violence over the last several months, according to previously unpublished military statistics obtained by NEWSWEEK. During a single week in mid-September, attacks in Iraq totaled about 900-down from about 1,700 a week in June. The number of attacks increased slightly in late September and early October during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. But according to the statistics, the just-ended Ramadan holiday was significantly less violent this year than in the previous two years.

Dave lamented in that December post that hawkish commentators don't take enough heat for their bad predictions. But guess what? The doves have flubbed plenty of predictions, too. (A few minutes of Googling turns up a 2002 Nation editorial warning of "significant losses of American lives... in the projected intense ground fighting around Baghdad and other urban areas?" Yup, they were worried not about a post-invasion insurgency, but about Saddam's formidable army.) One might merely observe that wars are fluid and unpredictable. But if one were inclined to be really uncharitable, one might throw Dave's declaration from that post right back at him: "These people are always wrong and should not be taken seriously."

topics:
Military, Iraq