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Re: Mythical Huckabee

Phil, I'll play devil's advocate. While I agree he has serious deficiencies for many conservatives on economics and on foreign policy he has a window of opportunity in Iowa and therefore can, even if he is not the eventual nominee, transform the race. Iowa is in some ways tailor made for him. He enjoys a strong personal appeal there, clearly has won some of the hearts of social conservatives and is making a play for the Fair Tax crowd. Speaking to his own staff as well as state GOP officials this past week, it is clear he is beefing up his state organization, both paid and volunteer. His populist economic appeal may not play to Club for Growth but it may resonate better in Iowa. It is a state where big media dollars aren't needed. Moreover, Romney may be vulnerable there and that's the rub. Romney's lead, built on huge ad dollars and an unprecedented investment of time, is likely to narrow as January 3 approaches. His failure to win among the attending audience at FRC and his squeaker in the online voting indicates that when put in front of voters, especially social conservative voters, he certainly has no lock. So even if Huckabee doesn't win (which would, of course, be an enormous upset and likely end the race for Romney) a close second may certainly take the wind out of Romney's sails. Because of this possibility, Romney will need, even after spending all this time and money, to spend more money --but more importantly, his own time -- making sure Iowa is a solid win. Otherwise Huckabee is the giant killer and the media attention will have been well placed.

topics:
Economics

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