Phil, I'll play devil's advocate. While I agree he has serious
deficiencies for many conservatives on economics and on foreign
policy he has a window of opportunity in Iowa and therefore can,
even if he is not the eventual nominee, transform the race. Iowa is
in some ways tailor made for him. He enjoys a strong personal
appeal there, clearly has won some of the hearts of social
conservatives and is making a play for the Fair Tax crowd. Speaking
to his own staff as well as state GOP officials this past week, it
is clear he is beefing up his state organization, both paid and
volunteer. His populist economic appeal may not play to Club for
Growth but it may resonate better in Iowa. It is a state where big
media dollars aren't needed. Moreover, Romney may be vulnerable
there and that's the rub. Romney's lead, built on huge ad dollars
and an unprecedented investment of time, is likely to narrow as
January 3 approaches. His failure to win among the attending
audience at FRC and his squeaker in the online voting indicates
that when put in front of voters, especially social conservative
voters, he certainly has no lock. So even if Huckabee doesn't win
(which would, of course, be an enormous upset and likely end the
race for Romney) a close second may certainly take the wind out of
Romney's sails. Because of this possibility, Romney will need, even
after spending all this time and money, to spend more money --but
more importantly, his own time -- making sure Iowa is a solid win.
Otherwise Huckabee is the giant killer and the media attention will
have been well placed.