Polls go up and down. But after drifting within 5
pts on the
RealClearPolitics.com average of polls Rudy is now close to
10%. ( I hesitate to put too much emphasis on the RCP national
average since it includes the Rasmussen poll which does not make it
methodology clear and is exceptionally volatile.) Looking at one
recent poll says something perhaps about what has happened since
Thompson entered. The ARG poll narrowed to just 1
pt.shortly after Thompson entered the race. Now Rudy's lead is up
to 8pts.(To a lesser extent the same is seen in Gallup which
narrowed to 8 pts. and then bounced back to 12pts.) The reverse
gender gap which I have referred to is on display--Thompson
narrowly beats Rudy among men but does very poorly with women. Rudy
does exceptionally well with women. We'll see if this shows up in
other polling.
Meanwhile where are the candidates going after the
Republican Jewish Coalition and Club for Growth Events in DC this
week? Romney is heading back to Iowa, no doubt wanting to make sure
that a hard couple of weeks won't hurt him where he can't afford to
lose. Rudy will be there as well and is then going on to Minnesota
and Illinois ( both Feb. 5 states) and Florida. Where will Thompson
go when he gets back on the trail after the Florida debate?(He will
go back on the trail, right?) I'm guessing South Carolina, Iowa and
Florida --places he needs to do well.