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A few people have asked me to clarify whether I am actually predicting a Republican congressional pickup in Massachusetts. Short answer: no. Despite all the factors weighing in favor of Jim Ogonowski I mention in this column, the fact that independents in the Fifth Congressional District are angrier at the national Republican Party than the state Democratic Party will probably be too much for him to overcome.

But that doesn't mean it isn't worth a try. Jim Geraghty has a post on the conservative blogosphere's efforts on behalf of Ogonowski.