Some stark evidence for the missed window of opportunity. A new
Strategic Vision
poll shows Rudy up 34-18% in Florida which reflects movement of
+4 for Rudy and -6 for Thompson. Romney edges up +2. As I have
written elsewhere, Florida remains crucial
state for Rudy and his best chance for a win before Super Duper
Tuesday which comes a week later. He has been spending more time
there and recently announced 32 county chairs. The state is
diverse, expensive to advertise in and has a lot of transplanted
Easterners but also Midwesterners. Perhaps the most important
endorsement of the primary season: Charlie Crist, the
overwhelmingly popular Governor. He and McCain have been close but
with McCain's difficulties it is not likely I think that Crist
would throw he weight there. If I had to bet I would guess that
Crist, who advises Republicans "not to tell people what to do every
minute of their lives, but to give people choices " and has marked
a moderate change of tone if not policy since Jeb Bush, will
eventually back Rudy. Had Thompson entered several months ago and
begun laying the groundwork for his campaign it might be a very
different race. For now, I'd put my money on Romney to give Rudy
the toughest time --his organization(with the brilliant former Jeb
chief of staff Sally Bradshaw and former GOP Chair Al Cardenas) is
solid and he has money to advertise in the multiple media markets
which make up the state.