Given that we're in the middle of July and it's still early, I
don't think it's that helpful to really look at these debates in
terms of who "won" in the traditional sense. Barring either a big
moment, or a major flub, these debates will be long forgotten by
the time the first votes are cast. However, what I do find these
debates useful for is to pick up on answers and exchanges that
provide clues into how the rest of the campaign might shape up-i.e.
what this tell us about how they may perform down the road. By this
standard, I think Hillary Clinton had a great night, and not just
because she didn't commit any obvious gaffes that could endanger
her frontrunner status, but because she handled one of the most
difficult challenges facing her campaign (running as a dynasty
candidate in a change election year) rather
deftly. Barack Obama, meanwhile, who is in the best position to
exploit this potential weakness by presenting himself as the
candidate who most represents change, responded feebly by leaning
on the "cynicism" crutch. If he cannot find a way to say to the
Democratic electorate, in some fashion, "Look, Bill Clinton was a
great President for the 1990s, but we need a different kind of
leadership to face a new set of challenges in the coming decade,"
then Obama is toast. Furthermore, the exchange demonstrated one of
the biggest obstacles for Obama-how does he go after Clinton
without contradicting his pledge to usher in "a new kind of
politics"? After four debate performances, it's pretty clear that
Clinton is a machine. Completely fake, completely soulless, but
somebody who will always say precisely what she is programmed to
say. For Obama, that means that he cannot count on her committing a
major flub. He's going to have to find a way to go after Hillary,
and quick (as it seemed he was doing on healthcare), or else risk
letting her get a free ride while cementing the impression that
he's nothing but a puffed up featherweight trying to move up a few
too many divisions.
Dave
Weigel endured liveblogging. See also Ryan Sager, and Jim Geraghty (who calls Joe Biden
the surprising winner and Hillary the surprising loser).
topics:
Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton
