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Jim: It's not just that Gingrich probably isn't running that keeps him out of the top tier. If he does decide to enter the race in the fall, he'll be way behind on fundraising; many donors will already be committed to another candidate, and many others will be reluctant to back Newt because of his obvious liabilities. He's whip-smart -- he'd make a good cabinet secretary -- but he lacks either the broad appeal or the political discipline to win a general election.

As for where the Newt fans are going to go, I don't know, but I suspect that a lot of those who are telling pollsters they support Gingrich are "Anyone But McCain" types.