Little by little, the conventional wisdom that Rudy Giuliani is
unelectable is starting to fade. In just the past few days,
Jonah Goldberg,
Michael Barone, and
Tom Bevan have written about how Rudy could win the nomination.
Today, the Washington Times
reports:
Social conservatives -- contrary to conventional
wisdom -- will seriously consider supporting the Republican
presidential aspirations of Rudolph W. Giuliani even though he's a
pro-choice, anti-gun New Yorker, political analysts and operatives
say.
But Rudy will never win in South Carolina, say you? The story
continues:
Scott Malyerck, executive director of the
Republican Party in South Carolina, an early primary test, said
voters recognize Mr. Giuliani as a strong, decisive leader and a
decision maker.
"John McCain and Mitt Romney have been working hard in South
Carolina over the past year," Mr. Malyerck said. "Even though Rudy
Giuliani has not formally gotten his campaign up and going, he has
been treated like a rock star across the state at rallies and
fundraisers alike."
Meanwhile, Richard Viguerie, who not surprisingly is bearish on a
Rudy candidacy, calls Giuliani a "blank slate" on taxes and the
size of government. Say what you will about Giuliani's record on
social issues, but on the tax and size of government issue, he's no
blank slate--he cut or eliminated 43 taxes in the liberal New York
City, slashed government payrolls and reduced welfare rolls to 1966
levels. The fact that Viguerie would make such a comment reinforces
a belief I've had for awhile. The conventional wisdom is that once
conservatives learn more about Rudy's record, he'll lose support.
However, I think the exact opposite is true. Because of a lot of
Republicans who are liberal on social issues tend to be more
moderate to liberal on economic issues, conservatives who hear Rudy
is pro-choice and pro-gay rights just assume he's also for big
government and for raising taxes. Once conservatives are more
familiar with Rudy's record in its entirety, they'll be much more
able to accept disagreements on social issues, especially if he
commits to appointing strict constructionalist judges.