In his Washington Post
column today, Charles Krauthammer joins those pundits giving
political advice to Barack Obama. The big question, of course, is
should Obama run in 2008, or wait another four years so he isn't
such a novice? Krauthammer says he should run to gain more
experience, even though he'll ultimately lose.
I'm not so sure I agree with Krauthammer. Right now, Obama has a
spotless record as this young, fresh-faced politician. Should he
run and lose the nomination fight, I think there's a danger that he
loses his aura and becomes just like any other politician.
Krauthammer says that by running, he puts himself in the position
to get a vice-presidential nomination. But I think he can acomplish
the same thing merely by flirting with the presidency, which has
already generated a lot of buzz and demonstrated his star power,
without having to go through a bruising political campaign. By
sitting out, he kind of shows deference to his elders, doing
something for the good of the party, which I think could be
rewarded with a vice-presidential nod.
Of course, my calculation is based on my view that national
security issues will dominate the 2008 presidential election, which
is why I think that Giuliani can overcome his liberal stances on
social issues to win the Republican nomination. If I'm right, then
Obama would not have a prayer of winning in 2008 because of his
lack of national security credentials.
However, there clearly is a growing section of the electorate
that's tired of war and the deep divisions in this country during
the Bush presidency. In my view those who don't understand the
nature of the threat we face are living in denial, but regardless,
there are those who want to return to a world where we aren't in a
prepetual state of war. So, for those looking for the antidote to
the bitterness of the Bush years, they may find it in Obama, who
clearly projects a sort of sunny optimism.
Though I think running in 2008 would be a risk, waiting could
also be a risk. If he runs now, he may turn out to be ready for
superstardom a la LeBron James, who came from the NBA right out of
high school and proved that he was ready for prime time. But if
Obama doesn't strike while the iron's hot, he could risk the Matt
Leinart syndrome. Leinart, of course, would have been a sure No. 1
pick in the NFL draft in 2005, but by staying an extra year at USC,
he dropped to the 10th pick.
topics:
Barack Obama
