From NYSun column today FRIDAY 28: addend confirm on SA-18s.
What this all creates right now is an Iran that can and will
continue to resupply Hezbollah on the Lebanon front with arms,
ammunition, special forces, sophisticated logistics, an
intelligence apparatus, and the long-range Katyushas and missiles
that pepper Israel. Supply routes from Iran to Syria are not only
air lanes but also overland trucking on tribal routes through
Turkey and Kurdistan. Turkey knows this and knows this is tacit
support of Hizbollah and Syria. More striking is that the Kurds in
northern Iraq, ostensibly America's strongest ally in the
liberation and democratization of Iraq, are openly cooperating with
the Iranian military convoys. The Kurds have made a deal with
Tehran that looks to the future and the establishment of an
independent, oil-rich Kurdistan. The Kurds aim to drive out or
massacre the minority Turkmen in their territory, and they know
this will be a casus belli for Turkey. The Kurds will need Iran for
an ally and also as a transportation artery to get their oil to
market. The Russians must certainly know that Iran is using Turkey
and Kurdistan in their war effort, and the Russians have presumably
made a decision not to interfere in any fashion with their Caspian
Sea neighbor and commercial partner Iran. More puzzling is how
al-Maliki and the Shia/Kurd-dominated government in Baghdad might
not know of the resupply. Did Maliki stand next to President Bush
in a joint news conference knowing that not only are the Shia of
Iraq cheering Hezbollah in Lebanon but also that Iraq is an ally of
Iran and Syria in the fight? The resupply from Iran is profound
because Hezbollah could not have sustained the fight past the first
days without the certainty of endless weaponry and ammunition. The
Lebanon war plan is to escalate one step at a time, and this
requires the discipline of a confident, well-led, well-connected
force. Iran will not turn off the flow. And the rearming of Lebanon
through Syria also includes the very latest, best Russian- and
Chinese-origin equipment, including the SA-18 shoulder-fired
anti-aircraft missile, Sagger and Kornet antitank missiles, at
least one battery of Silkworm anti-ship missiles, and multiple
combinations of Zelzal-2 missiles and Fajr-3 and -5 rockets that
can easily reach Tel Aviv - and, with smaller warheads, much
farther, to Jerusalem. A decision to strike Jerusalem has not been
announced. Nonetheless, high-explosive warheads are poised to
strike civilian populations: at least one Scud-type missile has
already been found underwater in Haifa harbor.
topics:
Transportation, Military, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Israel, Oil
