John: Much as I hate to agree with two of the people most
responsible for our lack of a credible missile defense (Levin being
the primary obstructionist) Carter and Perry are right. We need to
strike the missile on the NK launch pad unless they agree,
forthwith, to abide by the international convention on missile
testing.
That convention requires international notices (NOTAM's --
notices to mariners and airmen) which publish time, distance and
purpose of launch. If they don't, we should launch a cruise missile
from a B-2 without notice to anyone.
The issue of using the Ft. Greely and Vandenberg interceptors is
complex. (The following isn't classified). These interceptors have
a .6 reliability, meaning they are 60% likely to succeed. To be
sure, you have to use at least two. The ship-based "Standard-1"
missiles on Aegis ships off Japan have a .5 reliability, or 50-50
chance of success. Because these weapons are probable, not
certain, means of killing the NK bird, we need to use the tool that
gives a 100% chance. B-2's ain't gonna be seen or heard. And we
have mensurated coordinates (3-dimensional) on the NK bird. All
Dubya has to do is decide, and the fly-guys will do the rest.
Forthwith.
