This is War Warning Part Five, in three sections.
Section 1: Tehran War Plan R.
1. The Tehran war plan has a code name that is unknown. For
the purposes of this construction, it is Operation R.
2. The window for R remains September-October of 06,
coterminous with Yom Kippur.
3. Tehran will tempt the US with provocations from now through
the summer.
4. The major R provocation will resemble a surge of terror
strikes from the witch’s brew of terror gangs. The surge will be
directed against sacred sites as well as strategic and civilian
sites; the surge will include Israel, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and
possibly Europe. Note that the Al Aqsa and Islamic Jihad gangs on
the West Bank are working to show that they deserve to be part of
the surge. Hamas is a junior partner. The tyro Zarqawi has
proposed himself as a regional commander. Al Q is a full partner,
though junior to HizbAllah.
5. R has two victory points. If the US does not respond to the
surge, Tehran wins. If the US does respond, Tehran wins. The
Tehran regime is supremely confident. Ayatollah Khamenei fuels the
confidence, but the regime is not dependent upon one man. The
regime is a counter-counter-revolution. The regime believes that
it must strike now because the most young population is feral and
disloyal.
6. Critical to understanding the Tehran regime’s confidence in
R is its radical Shiite theology. Ahmadinejad is a sincere
messianic voice: he represents a monolithic, Mahdist, apocalyptic
cadre in the IRGC leadership. The inspiration for these Mahdists
is not Ayatollah Khamenei but rather is a shadowy ayatollah who was
long in Germany before the revolution: what is most critical about
this most radical and treasured ayatollah is that he has declared
that it is legitimate to use nuclear weapons to advance the
revolution.
7. For a thousand years, Shiites have been the practical,
coherent, accomodating minority in Islam, forced by the persecution
of the Sunni majority to find expedient solutions to threats. What
is new and profound is that the present Tehran regime is committed
to a confrontation with what it believes is satanic forces. The
Tehran regime believes that democracy is the work of Satan. The
Tehran regime believes that the United States is a demon that it
calls World Arrogance. The Tehran regime believes (Ahmadinejad
especially) that the chaos and ruin that will follow nuclear
exchange will at the same time prepare the entry of the 12th
(Invisible) Imam and the delivery of the faithful to paradise on
Earth.
7a. The distinction made by some voluble commentators in the EU
that there is a division between Ahmadinejad (and his IRGC allies)
and the wiseman voice of the old crocodile Rafsinjani and the young
crocodile Larijani is a false note. Rafsanjani has just comleted an
embassy from Damascus to Kuwait City in which he informed the
sheepish Gulf emirs that in the event of air strikes, anyone who
aids the US will be burned. National Security Council adviser
Larijani is a servant of the Council of Elders. In the event of
crisis, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei endorses the
necessity of nuclear launch: twice in the last two yars, Khamenei
has provided his signature of the launch codes during war
exercises.
8. Operatation R includes conventional and nuclear components.
In the event of a US strike, Iran will respond with conventional
and nuclear weapons. (The regime has nuclear warheads that it
purchased from the Soviet stockpiles in the early 90s.) R will
strike at the Arabian oilfields and Israel: a version of the war
plan has been published in the Saudi Arabian press, with the caveat
that it calls for suicide strikes on all Gulf states that support
the US: the shahid detail is theological language and not
strategic: the IRGC has sufficient Shahab missiles and other
hardware to launch a decapitating strike on the critical oilfield
nodes: also Plan R calls for a nuclear tipped strike in the event
that the US strikes and assaults become untenable.) R calls for
the destruction of at least one US carrier battle group. The
Tehran regime believes it will survive the US strikes in deep and
hard sites. The Tehran regime believes that the very
disequilibrium of the contest — the overwhelming US force compare
to the IRGC force — is demonstration of its imminent success. The
Tehran regime believes that Allah will provide the fate that is
required to defeat the US strikes.
9. R holds that the UN or other non combatant agents (EU, NATO)
will intervene after the first round of strikes, and that the
ceasefire will prevent the US from consolidating its advantages
with combat ground units. Tehran believes the ceasefire through
the winter months will turn into a truce that will leave Iran the
regional hegemon and the US in retreat.
10. The Tehran regime believes that the humilation and
disintegration of the US democracy is imminent. The Tehran regime
believes that Satan will perish at the end of days. The Tehran
regime believes in the Day of Judgement.
More soon: (Next: United Nations Security Council Plan)
