1. Best signals source says that Tehran chief brain and
strategist Rafsanjani is now in Damascus for a round of meetings
with the terror camps, from the al-Assads to Nasrallah of the Hizb
to the usual suspects of PFLPGC, Hamas, IJ, Al Aqsa: the topic is
agreed: the struggle to liberate the Golan Heights, the West Bank,
the whole of Palestine, is the same struggle as to liberate Iraq.
Iran means to crush Israel and retake Palestine just as if this was
the end of the second crusade.
2. The Damascus meetings turn on what is to be done to prep for
the pre-empt that the Iranians aim to launch before October
showdown with the UNSC. The collective attack on Israel will
soften the resistance to the general assault in the Gulf region on
the oilfields.
3. Rafsanjani next heads to Kuwait to warn the Sunni princes
of oil that they either turn the Americans out of their back acres
or they will burn with the Americans. This same message will be
delivered to Bahrain and the UAE. Burn later or surrender now.
4. The Tehran regime will not wait for the expected American
punch under cover of the UNSC. The IRGC will pre-empt, forcing an
escalating scale of strike/counter-strike.
5. Iran possesses several nuclear warheads purchased from
Central Asia and the Black Sea Fleet in the 20th century. It also
has up to 3 hand made plutonium bombs acquired from the North
Koreans. The Chinese and Russians both know that Iran has these
weapons and will use them at the point the escalation rounds become
unbearable in Tehran. The Chinese especially understand, because
Bejing is proliferator in chief. Those cascades in Iran are built
with Pakistani, Iraqi, North Korean, Chinese technicians. The
Iranians are working with the North Koreans because the warheads
they aim to produce must fit on the North Korean missiles and use
the North Korean warheads.
6. The question unanswered is: Does the US State Department
asknowledge that Iran is a nuclear weapon power with the capability
of launching warheads on the command of the National Comand Center
(Ayatollah K)?
7. My Israeli signals source estimates two rounds of
consultations at the UNSC through the summer months, heading to a
final series of resolutions for sanctions in October. Israel is
not surprised by anything so far. Israel does not know what the US
president will do as the confrontation deepens into tactical
options.
8. Best signals source indicates that Iran will treat any UNSC
sanction as an act of war and will escalate the attacks on Israel
and the US interests in the Gulf . Iran will use the oil weapon
like turns of the screw. An open source suggests a possibility
that the Sauds believe China will pay $90/barrel as a floor. The
oil weapon will threaten the US economy first and foremost and will
stagger the Bush GOP chance to retain command of Congress. Cynical
question: do the Dem wannabees who are hawking the
Iran-not-nuke-for-ten-years yarn count on the Bush team losing to
Tehran in a catastrophe, and does this mean that the Dems will
inherit a hobbled giant for a generation?
9. The UN is on a glide path to Chapter 7, Article 42. No one
state can turn it off. Point of no return already passed. The
Tehran regime welcomes the showdown. The Tehran regime may be
manipulating the showdown.
10. Best signal identifies shooting by November election, since
the Tehran regime believes thet the Bush Admninistration cannot
handle a foreign policy crisis in an election year.
11. In the event of airland battle, the winter months will bog
down troop movements and will make airstrikes sloppy in poor
weather. Tehran believes the UN will bargain for a ceasefire that
will leave Tehran triumphant in the region and the US in retreat
from Iraq.
12. Endgame is acceptable up to the unknowable: Will the US
national security apparatus resupply the beleaguered region with
naval forces that the Iranians will strike with a nuke? What will
the US response be to such a calamity?
13. This is a war warning, part 4.
topics:
Foreign Policy, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, Oil
