Best signals source indicates the window for concern is March 21
to April 8 to watch for a multiple front offensive by Tehran.
The window has been in the signals since last December, so it is
not tied to the UN Security Council action with regard the IAEA
referral.
The window may already have achieved its aim by intimidating and
marshalling the disparate elements of the Iranian war plan. Syria,
Hizballah, Sadr, AlQ, Russia, Cairo, Beijing -- and more, all these
are elements in the war plan.
The war plan has three distinct targets:
1. War on oil. To break the U.S. resistance by driving the price
of oil into the $80-$100 region and hacking into all GDP
projections.
2. Wipe Israel off the map. A decap strike at Jerusalem is
credible, or a strike that separates Israel from its
supporters.
3. The U.S. political apparatus. Iran has determined that the
U.S. cannot deal effectively with a foreign policy crisis in an
election year.
Again, the war plan has already moved pins around the map and
may be a feint. Iran has tied down the U.S. ground forces in Iraq
to the point that it can turn on and off the destruction of the
Shia or Sunni leadership. A surrogate strike on Israel or on oil
pipelines is most credible. The sleeper cells in Europe are said to
be turned on. The hardened bunkers are ready to accommodate the
Tehran leadership to ride out a U.S. strike. The Russians are ready
to outlast the struggle and assert themselves as the new honest
brokers in Asia.
The Iran war plan is not terror. It is domination.
topics:
Foreign Policy, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Israel, Oil
