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Iran War Plan: First Window Opening

By John Batchelor on 3.18.06 @ 12:04PM

Best signals source indicates the window for concern is March 21 to April 8 to watch for a multiple front offensive by Tehran.

The window has been in the signals since last December, so it is not tied to the UN Security Council action with regard the IAEA referral.

The window may already have achieved its aim by intimidating and marshalling the disparate elements of the Iranian war plan. Syria, Hizballah, Sadr, AlQ, Russia, Cairo, Beijing -- and more, all these are elements in the war plan.

The war plan has three distinct targets:

1. War on oil. To break the U.S. resistance by driving the price of oil into the $80-$100 region and hacking into all GDP projections.

2. Wipe Israel off the map. A decap strike at Jerusalem is credible, or a strike that separates Israel from its supporters.

3. The U.S. political apparatus. Iran has determined that the U.S. cannot deal effectively with a foreign policy crisis in an election year.

Again, the war plan has already moved pins around the map and may be a feint. Iran has tied down the U.S. ground forces in Iraq to the point that it can turn on and off the destruction of the Shia or Sunni leadership. A surrogate strike on Israel or on oil pipelines is most credible. The sleeper cells in Europe are said to be turned on. The hardened bunkers are ready to accommodate the Tehran leadership to ride out a U.S. strike. The Russians are ready to outlast the struggle and assert themselves as the new honest brokers in Asia.

The Iran war plan is not terror. It is domination.

topics:
Foreign Policy, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Israel, Oil