Security council source reports that this news cycle is critical
first round of discussions between five permanent members with
regard the Iran confrontation. Britain and France are on course to
ask for an IAEA report of noncompliance. China is silent. Russia
asks for a report in 18 months.
Iran believes it can split the five with long term oil contracts
and back room promises. The US is now the prince of
multi-lateralism. Keeping Britain and France together, keeping
Russia moving without a "no," keeping China silent, is far-fetched
but possible.
There is no visible solution. Those who speak breezily of a
diplomatic solution have not read the 1945 UN Charter. Chapter
Seven, article 42, looms, a collective action of air, sea, land
forces for demonstrations, blockades and interventions to be
launched by a vote of the Security Council, with full compliance by
five perms. The vote is binding. Getting to the vote will be a
struggle, but the vote is the trigger. Jaw jaw leads to war war.
Iron tongues followed by iron weapons.
Source says Iran welcomes the confrontation. Source says that
Iran will watch the five perms talk, and if there is an indication
of collectivity, Iran will act to provoke the US or Israel in order
to split the five.
Iran is not a rational actor. It is a messianic state. It will
shatter the Security Council with falsehoods and cash and
intrigue.
When and if the Security Council breaks down, the US is left to
defend itself. Iran knows this.
Iran is planning for the necessity of preempt with a surrogate
attack on Israel, or with a staged incident over itsnational
sovereignty (airspace, coastal waters) is a credible and effective
scenario. Iran knows that the Bush Admin has low approval rate
with the American public because of Iran's black hand in Iraq and
because of plain clumsy over promising by the White House. Iran
knows that a darting attack on a US target, or on a US ally, that
is not answered in kind, will confirm Iran's ascendancy. Meantime,
the oil weapon is the flame turned up on the frogs.
Consider this a war warning, 2. The UN is near to joining the
League of Nations, ashes. We are in the final days of global
trust. Iran is consistent and extremely confident. Repeat, it is
not a rational actor. It cannot and will not climb down.
topics:
Iraq, Iran, Russia, Israel, Oil
