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Iran President Ahmadinejad remains out of sight and unlocated by routine signals intelligence at the beginning of the second week of mystery.

Meanwhile the Basiji, the bully boy militia attached to the revolution, begin national defense exercises in Khuzestan, the province neighboring Iraq in the south, also scene of the terror bomb blasts last week, at the city of Ahvaz. The national defense exercises are not terror related. The exercises are more practice to repel airborne assault, and also practice to engage in urban fighting.

These national defense exercises resemble the crude, panicky, lumbering exercises practiced by Iraqi forces during the chatty decade of paranoia between Gulf I and Iraqi Freedom. (See 1997 Harrison Ford vehicle "Air Force One" for a glimpse at the Iraq obsessed national security apparatus of the Clintonistas.)

Quick observation at this point in time is that Iran is major league spooked. Spooked enough to launch diversionary strike? Spooked enough to keep Ahmadinejad in the genie's bottle that birthed him?

Puzzle if Ahmadinejad is working up a spectacular performance for the occasion of the IAEA condemnation on Ground Hog Day. Puxatawney Phil and Persian Paranoid both come out to see their shadow and scoot back into the cave for six more weeks of winter?

topics:
Iraq, Iran