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Alito and the Betrayal Margin

By John Batchelor on 1.29.06 @ 2:46PM

Choral member Democrats falling in line, D-Day Minus 1:

Obama indicates he will vote for cloture and asks a sensible question: why would any Democrat vote yes for cloture if he or she aimed to vote no on the Alito nomination on the Senate floor?

Also Lieberman, a Doubtful Dem as of Friday, now falls in with the chorus and says he will vote no for cloture on Monday afternoon.

Moving count, this leaves the cloture vote still in doubt.

Among the Dems, only Nelson, Johnson and Byrd of Deep Red States are pledged to vote for cloture.

Dems Dorgan and Conrad of Deep Red North Dakota are considered likely cloture yes votes.

However this means that the wobbly Republican senators now are critical to the Frist led cloture vote. Losing even one red senator makes the task to get to 60 most arduous.

Snowe of Blue Maine and Chafee of Blue Rhode Island are considered uncertain, and they are both standing reelection in activist dominated small states, where a rush of outside (netroot or DNC cash) help could send them to defeat. The mention of Stevens of Alaska as wobbly appears specious.

Am watching most closely which way Snowe and Chafee jump when they announce their decision before the vote scheduled for 4:30 pm est.

My hardest count now, pushing all doubters to one side or another, is 60 for cloture, 40 to continue debate (filisbuster).

In sum, there is no margin for betrayal on either side of the fight.

topics:
NATO, Alaska