Best source on Russian foreign policy speaks dismissively of the
charge by Saakashvili of Georgia that Russia was behind the
simultaneous explosions on three gas pipelines and one electric
line over the weekend that pushed Tblisi and much of the
U.S.-mission-critical state of Georgia into dark cold.
Puzzle is what caused the so-called explosions?
Consider accident. Russia's infrastructure is pasted together,
and pipelines blowing up in a violent cold snap is Soviet-age
believable. Then again, the gas lines are Gazprom's, who did the
coordinated turn down of gas a few weeks back through Ukraine into
Europe (unless it was Gazprom thugs stealing in Ukraine); so
perhaps it was just a Gazprom failure.
Consider terror. The natural gas lines into Georgia pass through
North Ossetia, which is the neighborhood of the Chechen attack
dogs.
Russia, ignoring Saakashvili's antics, asserts the strike was
those rascally mass murdering Chechens who hit the lines. True or
not, this is a significant assertion, because Russia is at the same
time telling the oil-hungry West that massive, expensive,
Russian-led security is needed to guard pipelines in the Caucuses.
Russia is not thinking just of Gazprom lines. The biggest pipeline
in the area is the South Caucasus Pipeline that is coming on line
in summer 2006 to connect the Caspian Sea and the Azerbaijan fields
to Turkey and the Black Sea. The Baku-Tblisi-Turkey line will be a
major energy source for Europe. The South Caucasus Pipeline
security becomes European security.
And only Russia can guarantee the Caucasus -- if, and only if,
the West keeps out of the continuing genocide in Chechnya, if, and
only if, the West bends a knee to the new power at the Kremlin.
Also, what else could this convenient accident-terror incident
tell the West?
Is Russia telling the West that the South Caucasus Pipeline
should have been built through Russian-controlled territory? Is
Russia telling the West not to toy with beggarly confused
hysterical Georgia? Is Russia reminding NATO not to proceed to
invite Georgia and the larger misbehaving Ukraine ?
It is inarguably deep wintertime in the Caucasus in the 21st
Century. Also inarguably, the Little Father (Kremlin) is in control
of the Great Game.
topics:
Foreign Policy, Russia, NATO, Energy, Oil
