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But Dave, if nothing matters until the secret ballot vote, then why have a campaign at all?

Frontrunners never say "the only poll that matters is the one on election day," or any variation thereof. Plainly, Boehner's losing.

UPDATE: Catching up, I now see that Boehner started with this talking point yesterday in response to a release claiming that Blunt has the race wrapped up, with 117+ commitments. Boehner's other objection to the Blunt announcement is stronger: If Blunt has it won, why not step down from the whip post? Shadegg, meanwhile, claimed yesterday that "We already have defections from the Blunt list and we expect more."