Tonight's last-minute emergency talks among the EUnuchs,
deciding whether the negotiations to admit Turkey can commence
tomorrow, are apparently deadlocked. Austria wants to block Turkish
membership, and has offered a "privileged partnership" in its
place. Turkish PM Erdogan has pursued membershp as relentlessly as
several predecessors, and has already rejected the Austrian
proposal. Erdogan said that if Turkey weren't allowed to begin
talks on full membership -- even though that means acceptance of
about 85,000 pages of EU law -- Turkey would walk away. He said
that the EU would then merely be a "Christian club."
It's not at all clear that Turkey would benefit from membership,
except to export its unemployed to France and other EU members.
(France's "Polish plumber" problem times ten.) But if Turkey is
rejected, or even delayed again, the most moderate, Westernized and
democratic nation in the Muslim world will be further alienated not
only from the EU but from us, and given a big incentive to drift
closer to Russia or Middle Eastern allies. The Turks are not Arabs;
they have no cultural inclination to divorce themselves from NATO
and join with the Arabs.
For decades, Turkey was the cornerstone of NATO, blocking Soviet
expansion though the Caucasus and into Iran. The Erdogan
government, far more closely linked to Islamists, but not itself
Islamist, will find it harder to maintain its moderation. And when
we consider that fact, we must remember that Turkey's northeastern
border is "Kurdistan," and its determination to prevent an
independent Kurdistan is one of the things that can hold Iraq
together, or not.
The EU will act, as it always does, on the basis of its own
economic interests and without regard to how it will affect the war
on terror. If it rejects or delays full membership for Turkey, we
should step in quickly and decisively. Will Turkey slide away from
democracy and into a theocratic state radical Islamic state? As
unlikely as it seems now, if Turkey is continuously pushed away
from the West, its professional military (still the most powerful
political force) will not be able to resist Islamization forever.
Some are calling for an Islamic economic alliance, with an obvious
eye on Turkey's problem with the EU. Instead of standing by while
this might happen, why can't we offer a Turkish version of NAFTA to
help Turkish moderates keep their nation democratic? We can compete
with the EU, and succeed where they fail. It's Palmerston time
again. We have no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only
permanent interests. Turkey has been a valuable ally. It is our
interest to keep it so.
topics:
Islam, Law, Military, Iraq, Iran, Russia, NATO
