The Spectacle Blog

“Our Lead Is Vanishing At A Rate Of *AWESOME*”

By on 4.22.09 | 4:53PM

On February 2nd, Steve Lonegan, former mayor of Bogota, and contender for the GOP nomination for the New Jersey governor's race, was looking at numbers from Quinnipiac like this:

Christie: 44%
Lonegan: 17%

At that point, Chris Christie was asserting he had no ethics problems at all, and that if something smelled unethical, he wouldn't do it. That, I said, was some Orwellian verve.

So little surprise comes that when we're looking at the new numbers, Christie's campaign can still claim: "We're winning."

Christie: 46%
Lonegan: 37%

Chris Christie's bumbling campaign has gone from a 22 point lead (March 9th) down to a 9 point lead (April 21st).

The pollster writes:

“Christopher Christie’s lead over Steve Lonegan in the Republican primary shrinks as we shift from registered voters to likely voters. These Republican loyalists are less impressed by a political newcomer than a party veteran,” Richards said.

To which Christie's campaign responds:

Chris Christie campaign manager Bill Stepien said that polls released this morning confirm that Christie remains the frontrunner not just in the gubernatorial primary, but for the general election.

"Two new polls continue to show encouraging news for Chris Christie. The bottom line is that I'd rather be Chris than any other candidate right now,” he said. “Chris has a substantial lead in both the primary and general election polls, a significant fundraising advantage in the primary and grassroots support in all corners of the state, as evidenced by him winning every single county convention.”

Okay. Christie does deserve congratulations for winning every single county convention. Except that happened in February, back when he was said to be the only viable candidate. Things have changed. The poll showing his lead cut in half is today. While I'm sure Bill Stepien is sincere in thinking that he'd "rather be Chris than any other candidate right now," it does make me worry about Bill Stepien's stock portfolio/NCAA brackets/horserace betting record. You're supposed to look at change over time.

If we could revisit those poll numbers, the term "buzz saw" comes to mind.

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