1. Mitt Romney needs to avoid giving his critics easy ammunition. The controversies over "I like firing people" and not being concerned about the poor are totally unfair. They are also totally predictable and involve phrases it should be relatively simple to avoid using.
2. Reading articles about how Newt Gingrich could make a comeback, I'm seeing a lot more messaging advice than suggestions as to what primaries will allow him to amass the delegates necessary to beat Romney.
3. In 2008, Ron Paul's official campaign organization was widely panned while his "self-organizing grassroots" were praised for doing the heavy lifting. It was the latter who invented the concept of "money bombs," raised millions of dollars to break single-day fundraising records, dominated online straw polls, and developed the candidate's best ads and slogans. This time around, it may be the opposite. Paul's official campaign is much more professional and the grassroots has had less of an impact independent of the campaign.
An example: In Iowa and New Hampshire, the campaign identified and help turn out supporters. Paul finished third out of seven in Iowa and second out of six in New Hampshire, breaking 20 percent in both states. In South Carolina and Florida, they left get-out-the-vote operations mainly to the grassroots. Paul finished fourth out of four candidates and underperformed his poll numbers in both states. Much of this can be attributed the makeup of each of these four states and the smaller crossover vote in the last two primaries. And it was the campaign's own strategic decision to not really spend money getting out the vote in South Carolina or Florida. But it is a trend that bears watching as we head into caucus states where the campaign is once again engaged.
4. A lot of the endorsements Rick Santorum is getting now would have been more helpful immediately after Iowa. Even though he wasn't the announced winner until later, Santorum came out of Iowa with momentum that could have helped him bypass Gingrich.
5. If Romney is the nominee, no matter who he chooses for veep Barack Obama is going to try to make Donald Trump his running mate. He will have Romney and Trump standing before every workforce Bain touched saying, "You're fired."
6. Good economic statistics will help Obama make the case for his reelection, but more important than the official numbers are people's perceptions of the economy. Remember that the 1990-91 recession had technically ended before Bill Clinton even announced his candidacy and the economy was actually growing smartly in the last quarters of George Bush's presidency. But Clinton was still able to run against the "worst economy" since the Depression because jobs and incomes hadn't returned to their pre-recession levels, so it didn't feel like a recovery to the voters. It's actually dangerous for Obama to be too rosy about the economy if the electorate doesn't share his assessment, as it will make him seem out of touch.
Nevada moved its Republican caucuses from January to tomorrow in order to avoid a conflict with New Hampshire that would have potentially pushed the primary calendar into December 2011. As a reward for such good behavior, the state's caucuses have been completely marginalized by the Florida primary. Nevada will probably only generate major headlines in the unlikely event that Mitt Romney loses.
But the caucus will still bear watching. It will be Newt Gingrich's first opportunity to avenge his Florida loss. It will be Rick Santorum's first chance to eat into Gingrich's support and present himself as the new conservative alternative to Romney. It will also be the first test of Ron Paul's caucus strategy. Most local observers say that Romney and Paul have the best organizations working the caucus, but polls show Gingrich with more organic popularity than Paul. The Nevada polls can be unreliable, however: In the 2008 final results, Romney and Paul both received nearly double the vote percentage the pre-caucus polling average had predicted. Finally, it bears watching whether Romney can use Nevada to begin a winning streak that will make February a tough month for his opponetns.
As Aaron Goldstein and I have each noted, today's jobs report must be a short-term boost to President Obama. Over at intrade.com, Obama's betting odds to win re-election in 2012 are up from 55.5 percent yesterday (and 54.5 percent the day before) to 56.8 percent, having traded above 57 percent this morning.
But it's economics I want to talk about for a minute, rather than politics.
It is all the rage among conservatives, libertarians, and others who, like me, fear and loathe the Obama administration to point out the labor participation rate and suggest that the numbers are being manipulated to the advantage of Barack Obama and that labor statistics are barely-concealed "propaganda."
One of the leaders of this wave -- and a guy who I think is generally quite a good analyst -- is Tyler Durden who writes over at ZeroHedge.com. A perfect example is here.
I have some sympathy to this argument, but I think it's getting much more traction than it deserves, as you can see in the comments to Aaron's note and my note about the employment numbers.
But even someone who digs into the numbers as much and as well as Durden does can sometimes miss something important.
In particular, Durden says that the civilian non-institutional population rose by 1.7 million month-over-month but doesn't mention that almost all of that increase was due to an adjustment by Bureau of Labor Statistics based on the results of the 2010 census, plus smaller annual adjustments.
From the BLS report:
The adjustment increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 1,510,000, the civilian labor force by 258,000, employment by 216,000, unemployment by 42,000, and persons not in the labor force by 1,252,000. Although the total unemployment rate was unaffected, the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio were each reduced by 0.3 percentage point. This was because the population increase was primarily among persons 55 and older and, to a lesser degree, persons 16 to 24 years of age. Both these age groups have lower levels of labor force participation than the general population.
In other words, the participation rate (employment-population ratio) was reported to have dropped by 0.3%, exactly the amount of participation rate "drop" created by changing the population number used in the calculation (due to updated census data.) Without this once-a-decade adjustment, the change in participation rate would have been reported as...wait for it...zero.
I don't want to overstate the significance of Durden's oversight, which conservative voices around the media and the web are also making, namely the idea that the participation rate dropped 0.3 percent and the labor force dropped more than 1.2 million in the past month. Those things are simply not true no matter how loudly people scream "conspiracy" and "propaganda." (Having been trading financial markets for about 25 years, I've heard these same accusations about economic data being manipulated to help the incumbent president -- whether Democrat or Republican -- so many times, they just bore me now.)
And while the actual participation rate might in fact be this new lower number, that would also mean that prior numbers were lower. In other words, the top-line change -- caused almost entirely by using new census population numbers -- is an artifact of the new census data, but few people have read to the end of the BLS report to get that important piece of information.
Furthermore, there are cyclical reasons that the participation rate shouldn't be as high now as it was a few years ago in a different part of the economic cycle, as economist Brian Wesbury (no liberal, he) explains.
Look, I don't like writing anything that is likely to benefit Barack Obama or his supporters. But the facts are the facts, and the claims of a big one-month drop in labor force and participation rate are simply wrong. If our side is going to call certain data "propaganda," the least we can do is make sure we understand the data.
That's why, according to former U.S. Rep. Mark Souder, Newt Gingrich was forced to step aside as Speaker. While there are parts of the story he leaves out, especially regarding all the events of 1998, Souder provides a fair and balanced assessment that is probably more kind to Gingrich than not. It's well worth a read. Fair is fair. I remembered the Gingrich ethics charges to be somewhere between the high level of infraction charged by critics and the almost non-existent infraction described by Souder, and I have hit Gingrich for it. I still think others would dispute Souder's virtual exoneration of Gingrich. Nonetheless, based on Souder's account, if I overstated Gingrich's culpability in a post somewhere several months ago, as I think I may have (I can't find the post now, but I'll keep trying), then I withdraw that particular criticism to whatever extent it was overstated.
Either way, the Souder account is a good read. On matters aside from the formal ethics charges, plenty of others have described at great length all the horrors of Gingrichian leadership to which Souder only briefly, but memorably, alludes.
Anyway, getting the record right is important. Please do read Souder's piece to get a thoughtful account thereof.
The Gipper's 101st birthday on Monday merits a class in Reagan 101.
One of my points is that conservatives can't win on principle alone, without doing the hard work of learning how to communicate those principles. The ability to communicate rather well, in at least a memorable fashion, is what has kept Newt Gingrich in contention during this primary season. I guess the third factor in the equation, one I left out in the piece linked above, is that the communicator must be a good messenger on a personal level -- reassuring, trustworthy, likeable, and believable. That's where Gingrich fails. If only we could again find somebody to combine the principles, the ability, and the likeability, then conservatives would finally be truly ascendant.
Even if Ross Kaminsky is correct in saying that unemployment is falling despite President Obama's economic policies there is no question these numbers will help Obama's re-election prospects. The unemployment rate has fallen five straight months dropping nearly a percentage point. Perception, after all, comprises nine-tenths of reality.
Now, of course, Ross might also be right to say that this pace of improvement in the economy cannot be sustained. In which case, President Obama will find himself in a more vulnerable position and Mitt Romney would be in a much better position to take advantage of the situation. Of course, whether Romney has the political instincts to do so is another matter entirely.
But if the economy more or less stays as it is and people have the sense not only the worst of the recession is over but that things will get better then Obama will be easily re-elected in nine months time.
Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton apparently suffered a relapse on Monday night and was seen drinking at a bar in Dallas. His teammate Ian Kinsler is also reported to have arrived at the bar in an effort to persuade Hamilton to return to his home.
Hamilton, of course, has a long history of alcohol and substance abuse problems. These problems surfaced soon after the Tampa Bay Devil Rays made him the number one pick in the 1999 MLB Draft and was suspended on multiple occasions. His problems were such that he was unable to play professional baseball from 2003 through late in the 2006 season. But after Hamilton became a born again Christian and renewed his baseball activities, the Cincinnati Reds took a chance on him when they acquired him in the Rule 5 Draft (via the Chicago Cubs) prior to the 2007 season.
After hitting 19 homeruns with the Reds in 2007, Hamilton was traded to the Texas Rangers for pitcher Edinson Volquez. Hamilton had a breakout season with the Rangers in 2008 hitting .304 with 32 homeruns and league leading 130 RBI. The highlight of the 2008 season was the Homerun Derby the night before the All-Star Game when Hamilton had the Yankee Stadium faithful chanting his name after hitting homerun after homerun. Because of Hamilton's standout performance, hardly anyone remembers that Justin Morneau of the Minnesota Twins actually won the Derby that year.
In January 2009, Hamilton would suffer a relapse in Arizona (although this was not disclosed until many months later) after going more than three years without consuming alcohol and drugs. After an injury plagued 2009 season, Hamilton won the American League MVP in 2010 hitting hitting .359 (good enough to win the AL batting crown), 32 homeruns and 100 RBI as the Rangers made their first World Series appearance. His numbers fell off slightly in 2011 hitting .298 with 25 homeruns and 94 RBI. Of course, the Rangers went to the World Series again and his 10th inning homerun off Cardinals closer Jason Motte in Game 6 could have clinched it for the Rangers but Lance Berkman and David Freese had other ideas.
There are several factors which may have contributed to Hamilton's relapse apart from the fact that he is an addict. First, one can only imagine the guilt he feels over the death of firefighter Shannon Stone, who fell to his death at Rangers Ballpark last July after Hamilton tossed him a ball in the stands which he intended to give to his son, Cooper. Although Hamilton has forged a close relationship with the Stone family, I am sure Hamilton will always feel some level of guilt even though he and everyone else understands it was an accident.
Second, Hamilton's support network is in a state of flux. Although Hamilton's teammates have been supportive of him up to and including making a point of celebrating their post-season triumphs with ginger ale, Hamilton was closer to Johnny Narron than anyone else. Indeed, it was Narron who was instrumental in getting Hamilton back into baseball and every day Hamilton has been in a big league uniform, Narron has been at his side. Although he has served both the Reds and the Rangers an assistant hitting coach, his primary job was keeping Hamilton on the straight and narrow as an "accountability partner."
However, back in November, Narron was hired as the hitting coach for the Milwaukee Brewers. Hamilton's father-in-law initially agreed to take Narron's place but has since reconsidered. Given the severity of Hamilton's condition, he needs someone to watch his back. The Rangers need to hire either someone already close to Hamilton or hire someone who has been through what he's been through (i.e. Bob Welch, Dave Parker, Tim Raines).
Finally, there is Hamilton's future with the Rangers itself as he becomes a free agent after the 2012 season. Hamilton and the Rangers had been in discussions to extend his contract but the relapse might very well put that process on hold. Even if you put Hamilton's two relapses to the side, he is very injury prone despite his productivity. Since 2007, Hamilton has been on the DL five times. This is not likely to get better for Hamilton who turns 31 in May. But Hamilton's tendency to get hurt might not bode well for his future with the Rangers. Of course, this will also be factors for the other 29 MLB teams that may wish to pursue him after this season.
But if I were to venture to guess, I wouldn't be surprised if Hamilton ended up reuniting with Narron (along with his brother Jerry) in Milwaukee in 2013, even if the team's name conjures an alcoholic beverage. The absence of Prince Fielder's lefthanded bat might be enough for the Brewers to take a chance on Hamilton.
This isn't Hamilton's first relapse and it probably won't be his last. Then there's the question of how Hamilton will handle his addiction after his baseball career is over which might be sooner rather than later. On the other hand, as many people who go to AA meetings will tell you, "One day at a time." On Monday, Hamilton had a bad day and can't change that fact. All he can do, with a little help, is get through today and begin again tomorrow.
UPDATE: This afternoon, Hamilton held a press conference and said he had "a weak moment" and ended up consuming "three or four" alcoholic beverages. Hamilton also noted that he contacted Ian Kinsler and asked him to join him for company and added that Kinsler was not aware he had been drinking.
The January employment report, released this morning, must have big grins on the faces of President Barack Obama and his campaign staff. And despite the negative political implications (of helping Obama's reelection chances), I still can't find myself rooting against good economic news. The key is that this is happening despite, not because of, Obama's policies.
The month-over-month gain in non-farm payrolls came in at 243,000, far exceeding the highest estimate in Bloomberg's survey of economists, which was 189,000. Private sector payrolls came in at 257,000, again far above estimates, and showing the additional good news that government head counts are shrinking.
The unemployment rate was reported at 8.3%, matching the lowest of the estimates. Average workweek length and average hourly earnings were also very strong.
The political issue here, if this sort of economic trend were to continue, is how Mitt Romney will make his case, which is primarily an economic one, if the economy seems to be on a solid recovery track. I do not believe this pace of improvement is sustainable. Nevertheless, the argument that "this is the weakest recovery in modern American history" is somewhat too subtle for the average voter to understand.
The stock market is looking much stronger prior to Friday's open, though one has to wonder whether some of this good news was already "baked in," given the rally the market had earlier in the week. I would not be surprised to see modest profit-taking by the end of the day. That said, I think plenty of people will be caught short here and if the market is still near its highs in the last 15 minutes, I think they'll take it higher as the shorts are forced to cover going into the weekend.
Government bond and note years are up modestly, and markets have raised their bets on a Fed rate hike by the end of 2013 by about 25%, to a 100% chance of the Fed moving from a 0% target to a 0.25% target. If anything, I think this may still represent lower interest rates than we'll see if the economy gains traction.
There are no two ways about it, at least from an economic point of view: This was a great number, the best in years, and I'm very glad more Americans are finding work. I just hope they don't credit President Obama.
Obama to speak in a green, woman-friendly firehouse in Arlington (Star Telegram)
Jobless rate has fallen because of dropouts (Washington Times)
White House not backing down on contraception (National Journal)
Donald Trump said to Newt Gingrich: "You're fired!" (LA Times)
Susan G. Komen deals with well-coordinated attacks from Planned Parenthood (Politico)
Senate passed STOCK Act last night (Roll Call)
Rep. Health Shuler of NC, a rare "blue dog" Democrat, retires (Roll Call)
Sen. Hatch is not yet convinced Obama is Jesus Christ (The Hill)
Occupy DC members on a "sleep strike" (DCist)
Hillary Clinton: Bond Villain? (Daily Mail)
Tim Geithner Defends Dodd-Frank (NY Times)
Leon Panetta story sparks Israel-Iran speculation (Politico)
VIDEO: Sen. Jim DeMint narrates a cartoon:
From the Middle East Media Research Institute, excerpts from an interview that aired Monday on Al-Hayat TV with Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg:
I met with the head of the elections commission. I think that the first step has gone well, and that elections have been held for the lower house that everyone has considered to be free and fair. So that's one milestone, and the next will be the drafting of a constitution.
I can't speak about what the Egyptian experience should be, because I'm operating under a rather old constitution. The United States, in comparison to Egypt, is a very new nation, and yet we have the oldest written constitution still in force in the world.
[...]
Let me say first that a constitution, as important as it is, will mean nothing unless the people are yearning for liberty and freedom. If the people don't care, then the best constitution in the world won't make any difference. So the spirit of liberty has to be in the population, and then the constitution - first, it should safeguard basic fundamental human rights, like our First Amendment, the right to speak freely, and to publish freely, without the government as a censor.
[...]
You should certainly be aided by all the constitution-writing that has gone one since the end of World War II. I would not look to the US constitution, if I were drafting a constitution in the year 2012. I might look at the constitution of South Africa. That was a deliberate attempt to have a fundamental instrument of government that embraced basic human rights, had an independent judiciary... It really is, I think, a great piece of work that was done. Much more recent than the US constitution - Canada has a Charter of Rights and Freedoms. It dates from 1982. You would almost certainly look at the European Convention on Human Rights. Yes, why not take advantage of what there is elsewhere in the world?
Ginsburg, of course, gets one of nine votes on the functional meaning of the US Constitution. That she thinks the age of the constitution she's charged with interpreting make it deficient relative to newer constitutions is kind of shocking, particularly in the context of her praise for the rights enshrined in the First Amendment -- rights that, in practice, are protected far less robustly in South Africa or Canada or Europe than they are in the US. On the other hand, given her style of interpretation, it's kind of not shocking at all.
(Hat-tip: Weasel Zippers)
Phil Klein calls Mitt Romney's joint appearance with Donald Trump to accept the latter's endorsement "the biggest blunder of his candidacy." I'm not sure I'd go that far, but it's certainly up there. Consider that last time the effect of a Trump endorsement was polled, by Fox News in Spetember, it came out as a net negative: 31% would be less likely to vote for a Trump endorsee, only 6% more likely.
Those who are working to re-elect Barack Obama are thrilled by the development, touting it on the @BarackObama Twitter account and in a blast email from the Democratic National Committee. Romney will most likely be the Republican nominee, and if Trump says something particularly incendiary, one can certainly imagine an attack ad using the footage of Trump and Romney. But even if this blows over and doesn't seriously hurt Romney, it's hard to see how it can possibly help.
Noah Millman is wrestling with a fair-minded compromise between a government trying to enforce a right to health care and religious employers trying to follow their institutional conscience. He comes up with ending private health insurance. But it seems to me what he has discovered is the inherent problem of rights that impose unequal obligations on others to be fulfilled. More rights for me means fewer rights for thee.
Consider what I wrote when the St. Louis Cardinals acquired pitcher Edwin Jackson from the Chicago White Sox (via the Toronto Blue Jays) last July:
So the Cardinals are Jackson's sixth big league club (including the five minutes he spent with the Jays) in less than three years. Jackson joins a Cardinals team that is currently in first place in the NL Central and is now part of a starting rotation in St. Louis which includes Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse. But even if the Cards should win the World Series methinks Jackson will be pitching elsewhere in 2012. He is a free agent at the end of the season.
I guess you could call him Travelin' Edwin Jackson.
Well, the Cardinals did win the World Series and Jackson, true to form, has moved on. Today, Jackson signed a one-year contract with the Washington Nationals pending a physical. Jackson went a combined 12-9 with a 3.79 ERA along with 148 strikeouts in just under 200 innings pitched with the Chisox and Cardinals in 2011.
The Nats look like they could contend in 2012 especially if MLB decides to add a second Wild Card spot. In any case, Jackson joins a starting rotation which includes Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Chien-Ming Wang and ex-Oakland Athletic Gio Gonzalez.
Interestingly, the 28-year old Jackson was offered several multiple year deals with the Cardinals, the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles but decided to seek a one-year deal so he could re-enter the free agent market after this season. Jackson's decision to sign with the Nats is no doubt disappointing to Pittsburgh Pirates fans who had lobbied him to sign with the Bucs through Twitter. But who knows? The Nats are Jackson's seventh big league team and probably not his last. Maybe Pirates fans will get their wish in 2013.
Of course, Jackson has a long way to go before he catches up to his former Cardinals teammate Octavio Dotel who, now as a member of the Detroit Tigers, will have pitched for an MLB record 13 teams.
Jeffrey Lord, who has intellectual integrity about equivalent to Bill Clinton's, has become a purveyor of smear jobs utterly divorced from facts, logic, and decency. After an exchange of about a dozen emails back and forth in which he refused to acknowledge simple facts -- not opinions, facts -- the time has come to show him up for his growing and despicable hackery.
One of Lord's obsessions these days seems to be the idea that Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post, and formerly of this publication, is "in the tank" for Mitt Romney (oh, really? How about this, Jeff?) and that she has written almost nothing in favor of any real conservative. I noted to him that she has written literally several dozen pieces that are absolutely glowing about Rick Santorum, whom Jeff does indeed accept as a real conservative. Despite easy Google access to the evidence, Jeff continued to refuse to acknowledge this fact, and refused to retract the smears against Rubin (which included smears against Elliott Abrams and others).
So, to set the record straight, here are a number of posts Rubin has written that are favorable to Santorum, or on balance critical of Romney, or more favorable of Santorum than of Romney. Here (way back in August) and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here ("Romney's lack of connection to voters is precisely the opening Santorum can use to wedge himself in between Romney and a conservative base that has not yet embraced Romney wholeheartedly") and here and here and here and .... oh gosh, I'm tired, but I could go on and on after these 21 I've already cited.
Why does this matter? Because there's a sick trend out there, which is to try to read between the lines of a writer's posts and ascribe motives to them that are different from what they actually write -- in other words, to accuse them of deliberate deception, based on nothing other than some extensions of logic (as in: hmmm... if somebody is AGAINST Gingrich, AND it is accepted wisdom that this is a two-man race between Romney and Gingrich, AND if the conventional wisdom is right to the effect that Santorum has no chance and that a late entry has no chance, THEN, ergo, anybody who criticizes Gingrich, even if praising Santorum, must secretly be trying to help Romney).
Readers of these columns and blog posts repeatedly accuse me, for instance, of being in the tank for Romney even though they can find not one shred of evidence that I have written in praise of Romney's substance in the past four years, and even though I have written several full columns and numerous blog posts harshly critical of Romney.
In short, everybody's integrity is made suspect even without a shred of evidence that there is a reason for suspicion. Jeff did this to Rubin, for instance, through his long, rambling, connect-the-invisible-dots attempt to smear Rubin's integrity by means of some imagined guilt-by-association-by-association-by-association link to Elliott Abrams' wife.
Here's a suggestion: Let's discard the idiotic labels (Establishment Romneyite; RINO; Right-Wing-nutso; Neocon), and instead just focus on the substance of people's records, proposals, and, yes, demonstrable public character. And let's stop asserting that everbody who opposes one's own candidate is therefore automatically excluded from the conservative club.
Sarah Kliff of The Washington Post gives credit where credit is due:
After the Susan G. Komen Foundation for the Cure's decision to defund Planned Parenthood, attention has focused on its Vice President for Policy, Karen Handel. She joined the group last January after a failed run for governor in Georgia, where she had advocated defunding Planned Parenthood.
But there's another woman who deserves equal credit: Americans United for Life President Charmaine Yoest. It's her group that issued a report last fall, "The Case for Investigating Planned Parenthood," that led to a probe by the Energy and Commerce Committee. And it's that investigation that puts Planned Parenthood in violation of Komen's new policy that bars funding of groups under investigation.
Stipulate that Kliff is probably a liberal who disapproves of the Komen Foundation's decision, but she is correct in citing Yoest's work with Americans United for Life that encouraged members of Congress to launch the first-ever federal probe of Planned Parenthood's taxpayer-funded operations.
In July, Yoest organized a Capitol Hill press conference where leading pro-life House Republicans -- including New Jersey Rep. Chris Smith, Illinois Rep. Randy Hultgren and North Carolina Rep. Renee Ellmers -- hailed the AUL report as "a blueprint" for a congressional investigation of Planned Parenthood's misconduct. And six months later, the Komen Foundation's defunding is a direct result of that investigation.
Many important facts are being overlooked amid the liberal media noise (e.g., "Uproar as Komen Foundation Cuts Money to Planned Parenthood,") but among that forest of ignored facts, no one should fail to recognize Yoest's role as an effective leader of the pro-life movement in this battle.