Two weeks from tomorrow, we'll choose between Dubya and John François. And then the lawyers and courts will take over to tell us which really won. If we're lucky, we'll know by inauguration day. It may be quite a while before we know who won, but we can say -- right now -- who will be winners or losers as the result of either candidate's victory. I've spent many hours with the Loose Canons crystal ball and my special global intelligence consultant, the late Sidney Reilly. In our collective judgment, these are the top losers in a Bush or Kerry win.
If Mr. Bush wins, the clearest and most immediate loser will be the outrageously-biased mainstream media. CBS News and the New York Times, to mention only two of the worst offenders, have bent their picks trying to defeat Mr. Bush. Their prestige -- or what's left of it -- rides on his loss. If Mr. Bush wins, Gunga Dan will retire this spring, Peter's ratings will shrink and NBC's new anchor -- Brian Williams -- will soon wonder why the hell he's taken the job. No one outside Manhattan and the liberal salons of Washington, Los Angeles, London, and Paris will have subscriptions to the Times. Which is pretty much the case already. (Think of all the liberals who will have nervous breakdowns if Bush wins. Then buy stock in Roche Pharmaceuticals and GlaxoSmithKline, manufacturers of Valium and Wellbutrin, while the market is down.)
In a tie for second place losers will be Iran and Syria. There will be action taken against other sponsors of terror, but Iran is the epicenter of global terrorism and thus earns a special place at the top of our list of problems. Syria, which like Iran is actively supporting the insurgents in Iraq, joins the top of the list of problems that have to be solved urgently by diplomatic means or otherwise. Iran's hell-for-leather rush to obtain nuclear weapons and the ability to produce them makes it the single greatest threat to America today. The mullahs will not survive another Bush presidential term. Neither will Bashar Assad.
Third place goes to the United Nations, which at this point should be registered as another 527 group for Kerry. Like the liberal press, the future power and prestige of the U.N. is riding on Duyba's defeat. Kofi Annan and Mohammed el-Baradei might actually have to get real jobs. Annan is continuing to campaign against Mr. Bush. First he said that the Iraq war was illegal. Then he directly contradicted the president's statements that the war has made the world safer. And, just to make sure no one missed the Kerry campaign ad, Annan said last weekend any military action against Iran without U.N. permission would also be illegal. Funny way to campaign for re-election as Secretary General when the U.S. has a deciding vote. El-Baradei -- the willfully blind head of the International Atomic Energy Agency who is very comfortable with the Iranian nuclear weapons program -- is also campaigning for reappointment while the Arab media expresses shock that he didn't win the Nobel Peace Prize. We mustn't fret too long over their future, because Annan will be given a college presidency (in France, presumably) and el-Baradei has a promising career ahead of him as a baseball ump. Mr. Bush will continue to play at diplomacy at the U.N., but the important American diplomatic and military actions will be independent of it.
Any list of losers in a Bush win has to include the EUnuchs. The EU is still tottering along nicely, but those who have built their careers on anti-Americanism such as Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder, and the rest will lose power and influence quickly in a second Bush term. Bashing America is the favorite European sport, but when an American president bites back -- and the people back his play with actions such as the informal boycott of French goods -- paybacks hurt. Chirac is maneuvering to make Dominique de Villepin his successor. De Villepin former foreign minister and U.N. delegate -- best remembered for refusing to answer a reporter's question about who he wanted to win the Iraq war -- isn't a very good choice if Dubya is still in the saddle. The EU is an economic suicide pact. That will become painfully clear in a second Bush term.
Another set of losers -- the OPEC nations -- are waging a quiet economic war against us right now. Which should be a surprise to absolutely no one given that many of the OPEC nations -- Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela -- are the principal supporters of terrorism. (Kuwait is a notable exception. We need to remember that though Indonesia is not a supporter of terrorism, its former president Megawati Sukarnoputri was probably among the bribed by Saddam in the Oil for Food scam.) The price of oil, in the $50 per barrel range, is already slowing our economy. After the election, these nations, will either reduce the price of oil or begin to feel more pressure from us than they ever have before. Unless Mr. Kerry wins.
IF MR. KERRY WINS, THE biggest loser will be the American soldier. They who go in harm's way are all volunteers. They are willing to brave danger because -- in large part -- they trust their president to only spend their lives when necessary in the cause of American freedom and security. During the Clinton years, the White House broke that bond. Mr. Bush has restored it, but the troops know Kerry won't maintain it. The troops will rightly fear a return of the Clinton era, spending lives in places such as Somalia where nothing can be accomplished. (Darfur province in Sudan, where genocide continues while the U.N. stands idly by, beckons to Kerry.) Re-enlistments will decline and resignations will rise. Kerry -- not Bush -- will reinstitute the draft to try to keep the force from becoming what it was in the Clinton era: hollow.
The next biggest loser in a Kerry win is Israel. Kerry's allegiance to the U.N. and France can have only one effect. It means a concomitant reduction in American support for Israel, in the diplomatic arena and possibly in the economic arena as well. Israel is always under siege, but without a strong American hand vetoing U.N. nonsense, and without a non-nuanced pro-Israeli voice from the White House to Europe, the EU may even put Israel on a list of sanctioned nations, precluded from some or all trade. The EUnuchs would cozy Kerry into talking again with Arafat, reviving Arafat's moribund role as the Palestinian's "representative" in some new peace process. No wonder a recent poll by the Canadian La Presse newspaper showed Israelis overwhelmingly for Bush.
Israel won't be the only loser internationally. If Kerry were to do what he's promised and undertake unilateral talks with North Korea, that will sour our relations with China, endanger India, Japan and South Korea. If he implements his version of Carterism and bases international relations on human rights, Turkey and Pakistan -- both key allies in the war against terrorists -- will be distanced from us. Our connection to them will hang by a thread, and both we and they will lose.
If Kerry wins, every American doctor will lose. So many physicians -- especially those in practices prone to lawsuits such as ob-gyn's, surgeons and anesthetists -- are finding that they can't afford insurance. Without it, they can't practice. With a charter member of the bottom-feeding trial lawyers guild on the ticket, there is zero chance for medical malpractice reform under Kerry. Everyone who is anxious to see their family doc go out of business should vote for John François.
Last, and least, lest we forget, the junior senator from New York will be a big loser. Miz Hilly's road to the White House run into an impassable eight-year roadblock. Kerry wouldn't fail to run in '08, and would certainly lose. That leaves Hillary to 2012, by which time she'd actually have a record to run on. Yes, it's years away, but be patient. Miz Hilly's run for the White House is going to be the most fun we've had since Lil' Billy was impeached.
TAS Contributing Editor Jed Babbin is the author of, Inside the Asylum: Why the UN and Old Europe Are Worse Than You Think (Regnery Publishing).
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