The Campaign Spectator

Romney-Ryan Galluping to November

The void in the heart of the Obama campaign.

By 10.19.12

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Governor Mitt Romney's amazing performance in the first presidential debate continues to propel him upwards in the polls. Indeed, the former Massachusetts Governor is Gallup-ing towards election day.

Gallup's polling of 2,700 likely voters from October 10th through 16th reveals a 7-point lead for Romney, 45 percent to 51 percent with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The Republican-friendly Rasmussen poll has Romney up by 2 points, and the RealClearPolitics on line average of all polls to date gives him with a one-point lead.

It is possible that President Obama may yet reap some benefit from the second debate, but Romney certainly has the Big Mo on his side which is energizing volunteers, donors, and party regulars throughout the nation. In my home state of Missouri, which, in modern times, has always gone with the winner, except for Stevenson over Eisenhower, once, and McCain over Obama in 2008, is siding with the Republican candidate by over 7 points (7.7 percent).

In my two adopted states of Virginia, where Romney is within less than a point of Obama (0.8 percent), and Michigan, in which Romney is now only 4.2 points down, things are moving in the right direction and fast. In my wife's home state of Wisconsin, Governor Romney is, incredibly, within 2 percentage points. Thinking back on Governor Scott Walker's amazing victory in his recall election, Romney will have the benefit of an outstanding voter turnout organization still in place.

Pennsylvania, previously on no pundit's radar, is getting very interesting with Romney closing to within 5 points of the President. North Carolina and Florida have moved, decisively into the Republican column. Even Ohio, still a challenge for the Republicans, appears to lean to the President by only 2.4 points, again, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls.

The Obama campaign now faces several serious problems. First, its unremitting barrage of negative, personal, ad hominen attacks on Mitt Romney and all his works has failed, having been rendered totally irrelevant by the Republican candidate's masterful performance in the first debate. All the money, all that television time, all that political capital employed in that base pursuit of character assassination is now kaput. The American people saw Mitt Romney, the human being, and pronounced the Obama agitprop a lie.

The failure of the Obama campaign's personal attack strategy is related to their second problem. They really cannot defend the indefensible condition of the American economy, its lack of vitality and jobs and the massive debt as evidenced in four straight federal budget deficits of a trillion dollars each.

Besides these two problems, there is also the total dearth of new ideas or forward (excuse the term) thinking about an Obama administration's second term. More of the same? That is not exactly a winning formula. Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum. The Chicago crowd, having nothing to fill the void, must now stand by and watch Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan Gallup their way to Election Day on a platform of growth and opportunity.

The void in the heart of the Obama campaign was in evidence in the vice-presidential debate in which Vice President Biden tried to substitute theatrical mime and bombast for reasoned debate with Congressman Ryan, who came prepared for a serious discussion about the daunting challenges facing America. It was truly a spectacle unbecoming a senior citizen like Joe Biden who was spared the withering critique from the media, members of which readily confessed on air they liked the guy.

Joe Biden's misrepresentation of Catholic moral and social teaching along with his apologia for the Obama administration's antipathy to religious freedom and the Catholic community was offensive in the extreme. His characterization of Obama Supreme Court appointees as "open-minded" on matters such as abortion was laughable.

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are mounted up and riding to the sound of the guns in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado. The prospects for ultimate victory have never looked better.

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About the Author

G. Tracy Mehan III served at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the administrations of both Presidents Bush. He is a consultant in Arlington, Virginia, and an adjunct professor at George Mason University School of Law.