Gone is Dear Leader and sophisticated fashionista Kim Jong-il,
with his platform shoes, bouffant hair, and over-size sun glasses.
However, son and Great Successor Kim Jong-un, though possessing
more mundane sartorial tastes, is proving to be worthy of his
official title. For Kim fils is fast becoming an
international sensation, along with his wife, Ri Sol-ju, and U.S.
basketball legend Dennis Rodman.
Kim, informally known among North Korea watchers as the Cute
Leader, has broken the mold of his two totalitarian predecessors,
attending prep school in Switzerland, following American
basketball, enjoying Disney characters, and showcasing his
attractive young wife with designer purse. All of this has given
rise to speculation that Kim is a closet liberal — after all, how
could he sample life in the West without falling in love with
liberty?
Now the communist monarch is hanging out with Dennis Rodman —
known as much for his off-court antics as his professional play.
The two seemed to have a good time, with Rodman lauding the “epic
feast” organized by his “friend,” who was an “awesome guy.” Rodman
also called Kim’s father and grandfather, whose victims could fill
the heavens, “great leaders.” But that only makes sense since Kim
Il-sung, the founder of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,
was officially known as Great Leader.
Alas, a European education doesn’t guarantee democratic
tendencies. China’s Chou En-lai studied in Paris, as did the
genocidal Pol Pot, who turned Cambodia’s landscape red with blood.
Syrian Bashar al-Assad is killing his people even though he is a
London-trained ophthalmologist. KGB chief Yuri Andropov, who in
1982 took over as General Secretary of the Soviet Communist Party,
didn’t attend a Western university but was acclaimed a likely
reformer because he was a jazz aficionado and collector of abstract
art. Never mind all of those years busily imprisoning Soviet
dissidents.
Maybe the trappings of the West aren’t enough. But Kim Jong-un
apparently has become a father, preempting Britain’s Prince
William. Surely that will make Kim a liberal free-thinker dedicated
to social justice and all that is good and wonderful in the
universe.
The South Korean media is reporting that Ri gave birth last
month. There was no public announcement, however, suggesting that
the baby was a girl. Alas, Kim, despite his winning smile and
fondness for basketball, appears to be a male chauvinist, just like
most everyone surrounding him. Although Kim’s aunt, Kim Kyong-hui —
Kim Jong-il’s favorite sister — was and remains a power in the
regime, the leadership otherwise is male. Maybe Kim Jong-un isn’t a
secret liberal after all.
But then, his behavior tells us that. Economic reform is an
obvious necessity, given the continuing catastrophe known as the
DPRK economy. Moreover, he has talked about raising living
standards amid rumors of changes in both agricultural and
industrial policy. But so far economic reform appears to be more
talk than reality, with the regime simply swapping deck chairs on
the Titanic. Rather than reduce Pyongyang’s almost total control,
his government has shifted responsibility for lucrative business
operations back from the military to the party and focused on
making deals with China.
The only political change of note has been his government’s move
to reassert party domination over the military, which does nothing
to liberate the suffering citizens. The “awesome” Kim has not
backed away from his father’s “military first” policy when it comes
to resources: North Koreans may be hungry, but Pyongyang found
money for a nuclear test this year and two rocket launches in 2012.
Unfortunately, the majority of North Koreans don’t get to enjoy the
sort of “epic feast” prepared for Rodman by his close friend.
It isn’t easy to measure domestic repression except through the
reports of refugees, and there are fewer of them because Pyongyang
has tightened border controls. Hundreds of thousands of desperate
North Koreans have fled north across the Yalu into China. Many have
been repatriated by Beijing —with awful consequences. Now few have
a chance to even risk a rush to freedom.
Finally, the government formally headed by Kim (whether he is
really in charge, part of a collective leadership, or more of a
figurehead is not obvious) has continued with the North’s long-time
policy of brinkmanship and provocation. Although Rodman said that
Kim asked President Barack Obama to “call,” the North Korean
military command subsequently threatened to respond to new UN
sanctions by canceling the 1953 ceasefire. The Kim regime
explained: “We aim to launch surgical strikes at any time and any
target without being bounded by the armistice accord and advance
our long-cherished wish for national unification.”
So much for the Cute Leader heading a reform parade.
Of course, the relatively young Kim — probably 30, though the
regime routinely lies and obfuscates when it comes to any facts
about the leadership — might be playing a long game, securing his
position before unveiling a dramatic reform agenda. However, he
more likely is committed to retaining his luxurious privileges,
which would vanish if the DPRK became a normal country.
Indeed, the risks of liberalization for not just Kim but the
entire elite ruling class are high. The North Korean population has
suffered and starved for decades and increasingly knows that the
system is a lie. Relax totalitarian controls and a lot of “awesome”
people, starting with the Cute Leader, might end up adorning
lampposts. To the nomenklatura the costs of reform likely look a
lot higher than the potential benefits.
Which means not much will change. Pyongyang sees a nuclear
arsenal as the way to prevent American-supported regime change, à
la Iraq and Libya, and continued repression as the way to prevent a
grassroots revolution, à la Tunisia and Egypt. Nothing that has
happened in the 14 months since Kim’s ascension suggests that he or
anyone else at the top has abandoned either of these fundamental
policies.
This isn’t an argument against any engagement, but against the
persistent triumph of hope over experience form of engagement.
Obviously, years of negotiations have not produced an enforceable
nuclear settlement. But there is no military option, since the most
important objective on the peninsula is to maintain the peace.
Isolation has failed and will continue to fail without Chinese
support. Official aid and subsidized trade have only underwritten
North Korean misbehavior.
The U.S. should be open to any meaningful North Korean overture
while preparing for a world in which the DPRK survives and expands
its nuclear capabilities. The North’s unique system of monarchical
communism will end some day. But it increasingly looks like any
change will occur despite, not because of, the Great
Successor.
Kim Jong-un appears to genuinely like basketball. Unfortunately,
that does not make him a reformer. Dennis Rodman’s “awesome” friend
just happens to be a dictator who likes basketball.
