Gone is Dear Leader and sophisticated fashionista Kim Jong-il,
with his platform shoes, bouffant hair, and over-size sun glasses.
However, son and Great Successor Kim Jong-un, though possessing
more mundane sartorial tastes, is proving to be worthy of his
official title. For Kim fils is fast becoming an
international sensation, along with his wife, Ri Sol-ju, and U.S.
basketball legend Dennis Rodman.
Kim, informally known among North Korea watchers as the Cute
Leader, has broken the mold of his two totalitarian predecessors,
attending prep school in Switzerland, following American
basketball, enjoying Disney characters, and showcasing his
attractive young wife with designer purse. All of this has given
rise to speculation that Kim is a closet liberal — after all, how
could he sample life in the West without falling in love with
liberty?
Now the communist monarch is hanging out with Dennis Rodman —
known as much for his off-court antics as his professional play.
The two seemed to have a good time, with Rodman lauding the “epic
feast” organized by his “friend,” who was an “awesome guy.” Rodman
also called Kim’s father and grandfather, whose victims could fill
the heavens, “great leaders.” But that only makes sense since Kim
Il-sung, the founder of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,
was officially known as Great Leader.
Alas, a European education doesn’t guarantee democratic
tendencies. China’s Chou En-lai studied in Paris, as did the
genocidal Pol Pot, who turned Cambodia’s landscape red with blood.
Syrian Bashar al-Assad is killing his people even though he is a
London-trained ophthalmologist. KGB chief Yuri Andropov, who in
1982 took over as General Secretary of the Soviet Communist Party,
didn’t attend a Western university but was acclaimed a likely
reformer because he was a jazz aficionado and collector of abstract
art. Never mind all of those years busily imprisoning Soviet
dissidents.
Maybe the trappings of the West aren’t enough. But Kim Jong-un
apparently has become a father, preempting Britain’s Prince
William. Surely that will make Kim a liberal free-thinker dedicated
to social justice and all that is good and wonderful in the
universe.
The South Korean media is reporting that Ri gave birth last
month. There was no public announcement, however, suggesting that
the baby was a girl. Alas, Kim, despite his winning smile and
fondness for basketball, appears to be a male chauvinist, just like
most everyone surrounding him. Although Kim’s aunt, Kim Kyong-hui —
Kim Jong-il’s favorite sister — was and remains a power in the
regime, the leadership otherwise is male. Maybe Kim Jong-un isn’t a
secret liberal after all.
But then, his behavior tells us that. Economic reform is an
obvious necessity, given the continuing catastrophe known as the
DPRK economy. Moreover, he has talked about raising living
standards amid rumors of changes in both agricultural and
industrial policy. But so far economic reform appears to be more
talk than reality, with the regime simply swapping deck chairs on
the Titanic. Rather than reduce Pyongyang’s almost total control,
his government has shifted responsibility for lucrative business
operations back from the military to the party and focused on
making deals with China.
The only political change of note has been his government’s move
to reassert party domination over the military, which does nothing
to liberate the suffering citizens. The “awesome” Kim has not
backed away from his father’s “military first” policy when it comes
to resources: North Koreans may be hungry, but Pyongyang found
money for a nuclear test this year and two rocket launches in 2012.
Unfortunately, the majority of North Koreans don’t get to enjoy the
sort of “epic feast” prepared for Rodman by his close friend.
It isn’t easy to measure domestic repression except through the
reports of refugees, and there are fewer of them because Pyongyang
has tightened border controls. Hundreds of thousands of desperate
North Koreans have fled north across the Yalu into China. Many have
been repatriated by Beijing —with awful consequences. Now few have
a chance to even risk a rush to freedom.
Finally, the government formally headed by Kim (whether he is
really in charge, part of a collective leadership, or more of a
figurehead is not obvious) has continued with the North’s long-time
policy of brinkmanship and provocation. Although Rodman said that
Kim asked President Barack Obama to “call,” the North Korean
military command subsequently threatened to respond to new UN
sanctions by canceling the 1953 ceasefire. The Kim regime
explained: “We aim to launch surgical strikes at any time and any
target without being bounded by the armistice accord and advance
our long-cherished wish for national unification.”
So much for the Cute Leader heading a reform parade.
Of course, the relatively young Kim — probably 30, though the
regime routinely lies and obfuscates when it comes to any facts
about the leadership — might be playing a long game, securing his
position before unveiling a dramatic reform agenda. However, he
more likely is committed to retaining his luxurious privileges,
which would vanish if the DPRK became a normal country.
Indeed, the risks of liberalization for not just Kim but the
entire elite ruling class are high. The North Korean population has
suffered and starved for decades and increasingly knows that the
system is a lie. Relax totalitarian controls and a lot of “awesome”
people, starting with the Cute Leader, might end up adorning
lampposts. To the nomenklatura the costs of reform likely look a
lot higher than the potential benefits.
Which means not much will change. Pyongyang sees a nuclear
arsenal as the way to prevent American-supported regime change, à
la Iraq and Libya, and continued repression as the way to prevent a
grassroots revolution, à la Tunisia and Egypt. Nothing that has
happened in the 14 months since Kim’s ascension suggests that he or
anyone else at the top has abandoned either of these fundamental
policies.
This isn’t an argument against any engagement, but against the
persistent triumph of hope over experience form of engagement.
Obviously, years of negotiations have not produced an enforceable
nuclear settlement. But there is no military option, since the most
important objective on the peninsula is to maintain the peace.
Isolation has failed and will continue to fail without Chinese
support. Official aid and subsidized trade have only underwritten
North Korean misbehavior.
The U.S. should be open to any meaningful North Korean overture
while preparing for a world in which the DPRK survives and expands
its nuclear capabilities. The North’s unique system of monarchical
communism will end some day. But it increasingly looks like any
change will occur despite, not because of, the Great
Successor.
Kim Jong-un appears to genuinely like basketball. Unfortunately,
that does not make him a reformer. Dennis Rodman’s “awesome” friend
just happens to be a dictator who likes basketball.
Alan| 3.7.13 @ 7:29AM
A communist thug and the village idiot, who would have thunk it!
Albert Constantine Jr.| 3.7.13 @ 8:21AM
During the informal yet official visit to Abbottabad, Pakistan in May of 2011 by the American representatives known collectively as Seal Team 6, much was learned about the sometimes anti-American international leader known as Osama bin Laden. One of the salient facts brought to light was that the al Qaeda leader was an avid collector of pornography.
Perhaps if we sent a delegation consisting of Jenna Jameson and Ron Jeremy, a different outcome could have been achieved with our once rival, that would have allowed us to celebrate our common humanity, rather than have stayed focused on the things which divided us.
markenoff| 3.7.13 @ 10:11AM
Kim Jong-un is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.
markenoff| 3.7.13 @ 10:11AM
Dennis Rodman is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.
gene| 3.7.13 @ 6:33PM
Yeah, "The Machurian Candidate" The original one with the Chairman of the Board.
cicero| 3.7.13 @ 10:31AM
I guess following the news from North Korea beats Saturday cartoon viewing, but is not much more productive. Everytime they run out of food, and the basics, they shoot off a rocket, test a device, or threaten to bomb San Fran. Everybody knows that North Korea will not launch a war. It would mean the destruction of the regime. China will not send its army over the boarder, this time. The first rule of any regime is survival. The Kims wold not survive a war.
The only thing keeping them in power is the army. The only thing keeping the army behind them is the fact that the army is allowed to control the economy, such as it is. As long as the army is fed and housed, all is well. As soon as the food runs out, Kim is toast, and another regime will emerge. The world will have to wait for that.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 3.7.13 @ 12:30PM
"As soon as the food runs out, Kim is toast..."
Given the reports of survival cannibalism from out of North Korea, this sounds like it has already occurred.
When the army's food runs out, though, I'd say he'd be much more likely to be rib roast and perhaps, pate, rather than toast.
markenoff| 3.7.13 @ 3:56PM
Soylent green
Crassus| 3.7.13 @ 8:10PM
Soylent green is people!
Al Adab| 3.7.13 @ 11:20AM
As they say, you can't make this stuff up. If NK renegs on the cease fire and threatens a nuclear attack on the US, it should be treated as a serious enemy even if, as is likely, all the talk is only hot air. The country could not survive a one week aerial assault by the US. China of course remains the wild card and whether they would defend their ally is an open question.
I GOT HUNG UP SILLY| 3.7.13 @ 1:04PM
Anything positive happening in North Korea has to first go through China like When the previous father of North Korea's current leader died the same week Burma opened up ?
markenoff| 3.7.13 @ 3:57PM
"....the previous father of North Korea's current leader....." Not to be confused with the current father of North Korea's previous leader.
cicero| 3.7.13 @ 1:22PM
Good point, Albert. As A - China does not want any kind of shooting war that will upset the progress made on its current economic course. If Kim starts anything, it will be out of desparation, and in order to maintain his hold on power. You also have to know that he is not the real power. All is controlled by the military. They will keep singing the same song, as long as they think it will continue to work. Once no one responds, they will have to try another tune. They will have two choices: start a war - China won't let them get a way with that, unless it is an attack on Tokyo. New Emperor for Life - which will give them time to find a better plan.
Anthony| 3.7.13 @ 1:44PM
Gee Mr. Bandow, don't you think it's time to update your stale repertoire?
We've read this story before. It was in the '80s when Andropov became Premiere of the Soviet Union and the media went gaga over the prospect that he was not an old style Soviet dicator.
The media were abuzz because Andropov liked scotch and listened to jazz.
How'd that work out for the Soviet Union and the Cold War?
And you actually suggest a twerp of a North Korean thug is going to go soft on America because of Dennis Rodman!!!!
Puleezze.
JD| 3.7.13 @ 3:32PM
The problem is that Bandow is exactly right - Kim is a liberal.
He believes that government should make all of the people's decisions for them and that domineering, oppressive government is the best way to prosperity. He has an inflated sense of his own intelligence. He doesn't tolerate disagreement. And he lies about all of these things.
Liberal paragon.
Seek| 3.7.13 @ 4:42PM
What sort of education did you get? Kim is a Communist, which is exact opposite of a classical liberal. Even modern social democratic liberalism doesn't even approach the barbarism of the North Korean regime.
There's a reason why introducing free-market reforms into a nation's economy is often called "liberalization." Red State vulgarians, unfortunately, have a hard time understanding this.
JD| 3.7.13 @ 6:00PM
I know the difference between classical liberal and modern "liberal" better than most any modern "liberal", who tries to claim to be the best of both extremes.
These modern liberals claim to truly embody the ideals of the classical liberal exclusively by endorsing policies opposite those of the classical liberal. Similarly, they accuse their enemies of being simultaneously anarchists and totalitarians.
You seem to be asking me to participate in this dishonesty. I will not.
I compared Kim to the modern version of "liberal", which is the more common use today. This describes a person who has "discovered" that freedom isn't freedom because harsh realities keep people from doing what they think they could do in a fantasy land, so we need almighty government to make us truly free by freeing us from real-world consequences - by controlling everything.
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I GOT HUNG UP SILLY| 3.9.13 @ 12:57PM
Who could call North Korea a Communist threat to anyone but the millions of their own citizens who the World knows are not even being fed over the countries continued large military expenditure$ ...
I GOT HUNG UP SILLY| 3.9.13 @ 1:04PM
This problem of North Korea attempting to be a current and future nuclear~missile arms supplier to the Middle East has obviously been left for China to deal with.
China is aware that others in Asia friendly with the West can also easily be supplied nuclear weapons & missiles that can reach China if their North Korean trading partner continues going down this slippery slope..
I GOT HUNG UP SILLY| 3.9.13 @ 1:13PM
Obviously> Once future Chinese elections begin replicating our own newly corrupted Inter+National "Unlimited Corp free speech Super PAC$ USA Elections," North Korea will just become another Chinese Province ..
Nate W.| 3.10.13 @ 5:16AM
China wants status-quo, and doesn't want N.K. to collapse. The Chinese would be left with a huge money hole which would take decades to improve
(much like East Germany).