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At Large
The Syrian Muddle
The country is now so fissured it would be easier to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
There is no question that the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad has been strongly supported by its formal Russian alliance. Not only has the steadfastness of the entente been manifested by regular supplies of war materials, but perhaps as important has been the political encouragement that the Kremlin has offered. This public alignment at the UN has given credence to the internationalization of the civil conflict.
China has maintained its commitment to the Assad regime and Iran has positively reveled in its self-assumed role as “protector of established government.” Only recently has it been reported that the friendly government of Russia has made an effort to nudge Bashar al Assad to seek a safe haven while developing negotiations for a solution to the ongoing chaos. At the same time, however, there is the countervailing influence of Lebanon’s Hezbollah backed by their Iranian patron urging continuing battle. These important Shia brethren appear to be willing to do everything they can to maintain the Assad regime in power.
In specific terms, reports have indicated that battle-tested Hezbollah personnel have trained Syrian troops in urban fighting techniques, as well as organized the former crime gang and pro-regime Shabiha militia into what has been termed “an effective paramilitary force.” From the standpoint of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the Hezbollah fighters are “mercenaries” and are to be treated as such.
Five miles north of the border of Lebanon near the Syrian town of Qusayr is a group of Shia-dominated villages that have been the target of FSA rebel forces. Hezbollah fighters have defended these areas and now have introduced rocket bombardments to assist in these efforts. The rebels view this escalation as an expansion of outside military participation beyond existing Hezbollah aid to regime units and have said this justifies their call for foreign intervention.
Lebanese Sunnis have rallied to counter the participation of the Shia of Hezbollah. In spite of the urgings of Lebanese Christians that any and all of their Moslem countrymen stay out of the Syrian conflict, Maronite Christians of the Franjieh clan have continued their alliance with the Assad family’s Alawite sectarian connection. Interestingly, while not becoming directly involved in the conflict, the Kurdish population of northeast Syria — aided by Iraq Kurdistan and the paramilitary abilities of the PKK — have utilized the civil war to secure greater autonomy.
Conspicuous by their absence, however, is the United States and the European Union who had loudly proclaimed their political support for the National Coalition formed several months ago to represent the Syrian people. The rebel forces expected to have the Western rhetoric backed up with arms and equipment. Anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons were emphasized as needed to match the regime’s technical superiority. Covert European and American field operatives in liaison with various rebel groupings have found themselves politically undercut by the lack of any supply of advanced military equipment.
An ancillary effect of the inability of the military wing of the National Coalition to gain stronger materiel support from the West is their consequent inability to attract and retain fomer regime military personnel. The principal sources of aid to the rebel movement have come from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but this aid has been short on the heavy military equipment desired. This aid tends to favor the jihadists who have good contacts with Saudi intelligence and the Syrian wing of the Moslem Brotherhood who get most of the Qatari support.
A group of about 75 Chechnyan fighters have made their way to Syria, but aside from their availability for photo ops, these ferocious-looking veterans don’t seem to be quite sure for whom they are supposed to fight. Military attachés in Beirut have simply included these Chechnyans in their lists of generally available jihadist mercenaries. The Saudis and Qataris act as if they never heard of Chechnya.
The Russians and Iranians have no trouble in identifying those portions of the Assad military machine they aim to supply with arms and equipment. President Bashar al-Assad’s relatives and close Alawite associates direct his most dependable battalions and they are the ones that can expect first call on the military assistance being supplied by Moscow and Tehran. Fuel and ammunition flows through the Russian-protected Syrian ports. Tehran’s political operatives keep an eye on the interests of the loyal Shia minority.
While some of the Alawite leaders admit their patience has been sorely tested by the regime’s inability to overcome the Sunni-led opposition, Syria is dividing into special interests of local warlords, jihadists of varying stripes, and just plain turf-controlling armed partisans. It’s not an environment that encourages support for democratic principles.
The reality is that the late Hafez al-Assad held the country together through the allegiance of his relatives and friends of the Alawite sect, the secular strength of the Baath Party, and the careful distribution of privilege throughout the country regardless of religious or ethnic orientation. It was a balancing act that was reinforced by an intricate security system. This entire political structure has been irreparably fractured.
Photo: UPI
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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BackToBasics| 3.1.13 @ 9:00AM
After seeing the carnage and instability in Libya and Egypt, it's no surprise Russia would continue to help Assad and work towards a successor for that government who will predictably be more friendly to them. But, no matter who comes out on top the country will continue to be ripped apart. I don't hear the use of the term Arab Spring anymore regarding Syria or in the other countries either.
AlanAnti-RoveCheneyBrooks | 3.1.13 @ 3:54PM
BTB,
Sean Hannity and his ilk make a big deal about four killed in Libya, while so many others die.
No sense of proportion.
BackToBasics| 3.2.13 @ 4:51AM
Tragic death is bad no matter how many or few are killed. If the 4 deaths were not so bad by comparison then why did the Obama administration work so hard to misdirect and keep those deaths covered up?
cicero| 3.1.13 @ 10:39AM
The United States has no interest, strategic or otherwise, in Syria. Have we learned nothing about meddling in Arab politics? The only thing of interest they possess is oil, and we have enough of our own. Theirs has to be sold on the open market, so it is accessable if we need it. They will hate us for who we are, no matter what.
Let the Russians and Chinese deal with them The Russians are really good at it. See how well they did in Chechnya and Afghanistan. The Chinese need more messes to keep themselves occupied. It may take their minds off of Japan.
I had to laugh today when I saw a picture of John Kerry talking down to one of the so-called Syrian rebel chieftains. Kerry looked supersilious, and the Syrian looked contemptuous of Kerry. Will we never learn? All they want is our weapons and money, both of which they will use against us and our citizens as soon as they get the chance.
Al Adab| 3.1.13 @ 11:36AM
The situation in Syria might be an opportunity for Lebanon. That small, abused once prosperous country could secure itself, perhaps with French help, from the intimidation by Syria which has been its lot for too long. Syria is better left to its own devices. When it is busy destroying itself, it leaves all its neighbors alone.
Bob K| 3.1.13 @ 12:35PM
It seems clear to the Russians, and likely the Assads, that the country is irrevocably torn apart. Rather than turn it over to a coalition of Sunni's there appears to be fall back positions to carve out small territories or satrapies under the rule of minority factions.
Dave Williams| 3.1.13 @ 12:51PM
Muzzies killing muzzies....what's not to like? I hope the Syrians keep slaughtering each other for the next 20 or so years. And maybe, if we're really lucky, the Saudis will be next.
cicero| 3.1.13 @ 5:18PM
Al Adab - You have to bleed for Lebanon. It was once known as the Monte Carlo of the eastern Med. They had the misfortune of having the "Palestinians", lead by Arafat, move in on them after they were driven out of Jordan, and were not allowed into the other Arab countries. What was a diverse country peopled with Christians, Druz, Maronites, and Muslims has become a hell hole, used as a pawn by the Syrians, Iranians, and their surrogates.
Their only chance of a civilized, productive society would have been to allign themselves with Isreal, early on. That was impossible then, and more so now. So sad.
I have several friends who came here during and right after the civil war of the early '70s. The stories they tell you tell of thier yearning for what can never be again.
Bob K| 3.1.13 @ 9:26PM
My late father in law was Syrian Orthodox. His parents immigrated here from Syria. He always used to contend that Lebanon was part of Syria and he would jokingly tell his friends who identified themselves as Lebanese that Danny Thomas "invented" Lebanon. There were churches for Syrian Catholics, Syrian Maronites and Syrian Orthodox in our area.
One of the things that helped to weaken the Syria/Lebanon area was the great diaspora of Christians from that region to the USA during the 1st 2 decades of the 20th century.
Dimitry_Aleksandrovich| 3.3.13 @ 3:28PM
The biggest mistake of Maronites in Lebanon was to align themselves with Israel. This put them at odds with nearly every other Arab speaking nation in the region including their fellow Arab speaking Christians. Was the PLO a negative influence on Lebanon...I would say yes, but Lebanese Maronites should have never abandoned the cause of the Palestinians especially given the fact that in 1948 both Muslim and Christian Palestinians were driven off their land by the Hagganah, Irgun and the Stern gang. If it isn't all ready happening (especially after Israeli bombs fell in Christian suburbs of Beiruit in 2006) you will see an alliance emerging between Arab speaking Christians and the Shia Hezbollah to defend their communities against the Wahhabists (like Al Nusra in Syria). Anti-Christian pogroms in Iraq (under the nose of the American occupation at the time) and in Egypt (both under Mubarak and since) by Wahhabist/Salafist (militant Sunni Islamists) has only further cemented the need for such an Arab Christian-Shia alliance in the Middle East. Being the minority in the region and given the fact that Zionist forces ethnically cleansed Palestinian Christians as well as Muslims in 1948 it would be suicide for Arab speaking Christians to form an alliance with Israel.
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Michele San Pietro| 3.2.13 @ 12:13PM
I hope the people who oppose Assad's murderous regime will finally prevail. They cannot be worse than Assad!
Dimitry_Aleksandrovich| 3.3.13 @ 12:47PM
Mr. Wittman I want to ask you why do you suppose Syrian and Lebanese Christians are aligning themselves with Assad (and a defacto alliance with the Shia Hezbollah) against the Western and Wahhabist backed FSA? A rather good insight would be the anti-Assad oppositions graffiti that was appearing on the sides of apartment buildings even before the Western powers and their regional allies armed the Sunni opposition turning away from massive protests and sparking off the Civil War which has left over 70,000 dead...that graffiti read "Christians to Beiruit and Alawites to the wall.". Given that genocidal sentiment within the FSA is it any wonder why non-Sunni Syrian minorities stand by Assad. We are on the wrong side of this conflict and the Russians, Iranians and Chinese are on the right side.
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obadiah| 3.4.13 @ 11:46AM
The article is unfair to Hezbollah and the Shiites. They are fighting for their lives. After having killed and thieved for 20 years, they have good reason to expect vengeance from their victims. Then they will have even better reason to wreak vengeance in return. Vengeance every which way. Hatred between Islamic factions can be even stronger than hatred of Jews or Americans, especially remote Americans.
Dimitry_Aleksandrovich| 3.4.13 @ 6:09PM
Just found this article on FOX. More repercussions from US and NATO intervention in Libya and the ousting and execution of Ghaddafi.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2.....islamists/
Coptic Christians working in Libyan markets are being tortured by Wahhabist/Salafist scumbags not unlike the "rebels" (indeed many were) we supported to overthrow Ghaddafi and continue to support against Assad in Syria. May all Wahhabists have their throats slashed or meet their end with a bullet to the back of the head. As I continue to say they are the scourge of the earth. The Bin Laden's and Zawahiri's of this world are from this Wahhabist fold but here we are in the 21st century after 9/11 no less playing footsies with these scumbags. God bless Russia and God bless Assad, we know what to do with these scum. Line em up and mow them down. They're good for making sure your Kalashnikov is firing properly and for fertilizer, but beyond that the Wahhabist is good for nothing else.