Being on Scott Rasmussen’s email Daily Update report is a sure
way to develop a love/hate/total exasperation relationship with
that alternately wise and frivolous, savvy and ignorant,
shape-changer known to pollsters as the American likely voter.
Our Scott has racked up a good enough record of calling
elections correctly, as to the winners and the spreads, that his
numbers likely do reflect the universes he attempts to measure.
He’s no amateur or partisan. Though when his numbers reflect
favorably on conservative candidates or causes, folks on the left
accuse him of being a Republican hack. I believe the force of the
evidence is that Scott is an honest and competent taker of voter
temperatures. But voters have proved themselves so fickle and
feckless of late, one can excuse alert observers for wondering if
Scott is just parsing ignorance to the third decimal place. Can all
this accuracy be in the service of anything worth knowing?
A few examples:
The reports provide periodic evidence of voter lucidity. The
Feb. 26 Update finds that 45 percent of likely voters want to see
the federal deficit reduced by spending cuts alone and not by tax
rate increases. Even the 36 percent who insist on, as we’ve been
badgered into saying by the Obama-stream media, “a balanced
approach,” want to see more spending cuts than tax increases. On
2/26 we also learned that a slim majority, 54 percent, also
recognize that the sequester “cuts” are not in fact cuts in
spending.
The 2/22 Update shows Americans haven’t bought the leftist
canard that it is too difficult to vote in America (and that this
is because conservative legislators and elections officials across
the country are conspiring to keep minorities and other Democrats
out of the voting booth). Only 17 percent buy this dreamy Obama
talking point. Almost twice as many, 27 percent, tell Rasmussen
that voting in America is too easy. Same-day voter registration
gets two thumbs down. In the same day’s report we learn that 59
percent of voters believe textbooks for America’s government
schools are more concerned with political correctness than with
accuracy.
We learned from the 2/20 Update that only 25 percent of voters
believe Secretary of Porous Borders Janet Napolitano when she says
the U.S.-Mexico border is more secure than ever. Nearly twice as
many, 47 percent, disagree with her optimistic (or just plain
dishonest) take. The same Update shows a majority of American
voters put improving the economy ahead of dealing with that
made-by-and-for-leftists-phony-alarum, global warming.
This kind of coherence extended well before the November general
election, when various Updates showed a majority or significant
pluralities of voters thought the government was getting too big
and too butinsky, and personal freedoms were being eroded. More
voters expressed concern about economic prosperity than about
Obama’s economic fairness talking points. Obamacare took its lumps,
and there has always been great skepticism about global warming and
little interest in taxing or regulating to combat it. Most voters
say the government should not be picking winners and losers in the
economy, and 67 percent say they believe private sector employees
work harder than government employees.
But conservatives shouldn’t get too giddy about the wisdom of
the American voter. Rasmussen Updates also bring jarring
revelations as well, not the least among them being that since
Election Day, between 50 and 56 percent of likely voters have told
the Rasmussen folks who conduct the daily presidential tracking
poll that they approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as
president.
A surprising 59 percent of respondents told Rasmussen in January
that they’re all right with full combat roles for women. And 54
percent say they agree with Obama’s recommendation to raise the
minimum wage to $9 per hour. Only 34 percent saw the obvious flaws
in this clunker.
Before and after Election Day, the same electorate that is
skeptical of Obamacare and believes it will drive health care costs
up, approves of Obama’s actions in health care more often than
disapproves. Even though more respondents have expressed
conservative views on the economy and the role of government in
same, the same folks, by a small margin, say they trust the
Democrats to improve the economy more than the Republicans.
This last head-scratcher, and some of the other anomalies, at
least partly reflects the poor job Republicans have done in
communicating what they stand for (to the extent the current crop
of Republicans stands for anything). But it also demonstrates that
in too many instances Joe and Jill Sixpack, trying to keep their
busy lives between the ditches, just aren’t paying much attention
to public affairs. Or aren’t thinking much about what they see.
Of course the biggest anomaly came on November 6 when these same
free-enterprise, limited government patriots returned the most
statist, government-on-steroids president in our history to office
for another four-year whack at fundamentally changing America.
In psychology there’s a condition called cognitive dissonance.
This describes the discomfort people feel when holding simultaneous
but conflicting beliefs. A prime example of conflicting beliefs
would be faith in the fundamental soundness of free enterprise and
cherishing personal freedom — but at the same time expecting
Barack Obama to promote one and protect the other.
On the basis of what voters told Rasmussen Inc. pre-November 6,
I would have expected an epidemic of cognitive dissonance. But in
order for the discomfort to set in, the sufferer must be aware of
the contradictions. Apparently Joe and Jill aren’t there yet. I’ve
no idea what would lift the veil.
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
