In November 2011, Silvio Berlusconi resigned as Prime Minister
of Italy and was succeeded by EU Commissioner Mario Monti. The
Associated Press proclaimed Berlusconi’s
resignation an “end of an era.”
There was a compelling case for that conclusion. Italy was a
fiscal basket case and Berlusconi was plagued by corruption and
scandal. Just last October, Berlusconi was
convicted of tax evasion and sentenced to four years in prison
(which was reduced to one year which he is likely never to serve).
Then there are the allegations of sex with an under-aged prostitute
known as Ruby whom he allegedly met at a “bunga bunga” party in
2010. At one point, Berlusconi claimed Ruby
was then Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s granddaughter. As of
this writing, Berlusconi is still awaiting trial.
Yet at the time of his resignation I did not believe
we had heard the last of Berlusconi:
Even in the best of times, most Italian governments have a life
of a year. Since the end of WWII, Italy has had 60 coalition
governments. I don’t expect this new coalition under Monti to last
appreciably longer than its predecessors. In fact, I expect to see
several coalition governments come and go over the next 18 to 24
months. In which case, it would come as no shock to me if
Berlusconi were to make his way back into power.
Well, another Italian election has come and gone and Monti, who
was perceived as a puppet of both Berlin and Brussels, is out as
Prime Minister. So who is in? At the moment, the answer to that
question is unknown. It could be Pier Luigi Bersani, leader of the
center-left coalition Common Good who appears to have a majority in
the Chamber of Deputies. However, Berlusconi’s center-right
coalition appears to have denied Bersani a majority in the Senate
and could soon find his way back to power. As of this writing,
Berlusconi has indicated he is open to forming
a grand coalition with Bersani. Whether or not Berlusconi
becomes Prime Minister, rumors of his political demise have been
greatly exxagerated.
The wild card in all of this is comedian Beppe Grillo and his
Five Star Movement, which has become the third largest group in
both houses. For his part, Grillo has pledged not to support either
Berlusconi or Bersani. All of which could very well mean that
Italians may go back to the polls again in a matter of months. One
way or another, methinks Berlusconi will become Italy’s Prime
Minister for a fourth time. I think this will come to pass because
the Italian electorate has thrice previously elected Berlusconi
Prime Minister. Why wouldn’t they elect him for a fourth time?
It’s not like Berlusconi is exactly an unknown quantity. Aside
from frequently being on the wrong side of law, Berlusconi says a
lot of stupid things. Just this past January, Berlusconi not only
praised the leadership of Benito Mussolini but
praised Il Duce for backing Hitler during the Second World War
(although he was quick to criticize Mussolini for implementing
racial laws against Italy’s Jewish population).
Berlusconi is undoubtedly a corrupt politician but he isn’t the
first corrupt Italian politician nor will he be the last.
Berlusconi is no angel but he is the devil that Italy knows. For
better or for worse, Italians know that Berlusconi is his own man.
Berlusconi is many things. A puppet for German Chancellor Angela
Merkel is not one of them.
From time to time, Italy has technocrat Prime Ministers such as
Monti. It might very well be that Monti has never taken a bribe in
his life much less attended a “bunga bunga” party. Yet Monti has
not shown himself to be any more competent in extricating Italy out
of its precarious financial situation than Berlusconi and Italians
know it whether they live in Reggio Calabria in the South or Reggio
Emilia in the North. Some might take Berlusconi to task for
his plans to marry a woman fifty years his junior but others
will envy him for it. Berlusconi might one day go to jail but it
won’t be for being boring.
Berlusconi turns 77 in September and shows no signs of slowing
down. So long as Berlusconi has breath in his body he should not be
written off as a political force in Italy. Whatever comes of
Italy’s election, never underestimate anyone named Berlusconi.
