-
Israeli Elections and the Peace Process
January 29, 2013 | 17 comments
-
Wrong Assumptions on Syria
February 1, 2012 | 29 comments
-
America’s Irresponsible Silence on Syria
May 11, 2011 | 28 comments
-
Inside the Palestinian Unity Deal
May 4, 2011 | 146 comments
-
With Friends Like These
September 8, 2009 | 8 comments
Campaign Crawlers
Inside the Israeli Elections
Netanyahu remains on top, and well positioned to form a coalition to his liking.
Leave it to the Israeli electorate to produce an election result that confounded most analysts’ projections. In general, the election was more about specific political personalities than it was about clear political and policy agendas. For as much as Washington views Israel through the prism of its foreign policy interests — namely, the ongoing impasse in the peace process and the nuclear dispute with Iran — socio-economic issues were foremost on Israelis’ minds as they cast their ballots. Indeed, most campaigns side-stepped important questions such as the future of relations with Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood; what should happen if Western diplomacy fails with Iran; and what will happen if Israel does not negotiate with the Palestinians.
Since the race began in October, Benjamin Netanyahu’s lead was never in doubt. His Likud party joined forces with Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu and was projected to win between 32 and 38 seats. But the coalition underperformed, gaining 31 seats, far less than the combined 42 seats it won in 2009. While Netanyahu will likely continue as Israel’s prime minister, his Likud party will emerge damaged from this election.
The 120-seat Knesset requires a majority coalition of 61 seats to govern. The breakdown of party ideologies and the seats they gained will provide some interesting possible coalition combinations as negotiations unfold over the coming weeks. A third of the votes went to vaguely reformist, somewhat centrist, or mildly liberal parties, but they are bound by no common ideology beyond the promise of a more efficient government. On the other hand, the right-wing and Orthodox bloc garnered enough votes that would allow Netanyahu to put together a coalition that reaches close to the magic number of 61. To do so, he could bring in his traditional party ally, Shas (11 seats), the new right-wing Habayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) led by Naftali Bennett (12 seats), and Yahadut Torah (7 seats). The specter of Netanyahu forming an exclusively right-wing coalition will provide him with negotiating leverage as he probes the possibilities of including center and center-left parties in his coalition instead.
Most surprising was the rise of two new parties to the political left and right of Netanyahu’s Likud-Beitenu coalition. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid (There is a Future) garnered 19 seats in its first showing, second only to Likud-Beitenu. Lapid, who has referred to his party as “center-center,” has now emerged as the kingmaker in Israeli politics if Netanyahu would like a broad coalition. Lapid was able to gain votes from the center from those who wished to moderate Netanyahu and he siphoned votes away from the right by avoiding any partnership with left-wing parties. Part of Yesh Atid’s appeal across the political spectrum is that it is a party of fresh talent that has now turned to politics, bringing with it real world experience. The party remained independent and above the fray, concentrating on achieving universal conscription — a principal likely to be a thorn in the side of the religious right.
The other surprise was the rise of Naftali Bennett’s right-wing party, Habayit Yehudi. Bennett has unique experience as a businessman, running the settlers’ council, working with Netanyahu in the Prime Minister’s Office, and as a former member of Israel’s most elite commando unit. His party gained 3 seats in 2009 but garnered 12 in this election. While the number is somewhat lower than the 15 seats analysts recently projected, its rise is nothing short of meteoric. Bennett advocates annexing 60 percent of the West Bank and was one of the few candidates to openly criticize Netanyahu for not sending ground troops into Gaza last November to root out Hamas. The latter position resonated with much of the Israeli electorate who see the current ceasefire as at most a temporary fix, and Bennett’s poll numbers skyrocketed as a result.
Far from the pre-determined narrative that many in the mainstream media spun, the assumption that Israel has undergone a political turn to the right is false. For his part, Netanyahu — who is constantly labeled as a right-winger — is in reality one of the most left-leaning and liberal peaceniks within Likud, responsible for bringing his party towards Israel’s political center.
As for what comes next in the political horse-trading necessary to create a governing coalition, Netanyahu has many possibilities. The shelf life of new centrist parties surviving in the Israeli opposition is exceedingly low. One needs to look no further than the Kadima party that governed Israel just four years ago and its slide into near oblivion today. This will motivate Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid party to join his 19 seats with Netanyahu. It would also give Netanyahu the option of bringing in the security minded Habayit Yehudi party of Naftali Bennett and its 12 seats. Together with Likud-Beitenu’s 31 seats, they would reach 62 seats — the magic number needed to govern. Conversely, should Habayit Yehudi prove to be unpalatable to Netanyahu, he could turn to Likud’s perennial partner Shas and its 11 seats. Whatever happens, Netanyahu is in the driver’s seat, despite his party’s underperformance. But given Israel’s foreign policy challenges ahead, look for Netanyahu to cobble together as broad of a coalition as possible.
Photo: UPI
Letter to the Editor View all comments (23) | Leave a comment
More Articles by Matthew RJ Brodsky
More Articles From Campaign Crawlers
http://spectator.org/archives/2013/01/25/inside-the-israeli-elections
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
Current Issue
- Behind a Quilt of Mist
- Confessions of a Soft-Drinking Newspaperman
- The Lehrman Standard
The Spectacle Blog
Democrat Dan Maffei Blames Budget Cuts for Girl’s Rape, Mother’s Murder
Robert Stacy McCain | 6.18.13
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
ADVERTISEMENT
Frank Drackman| 1.25.13 @ 6:44AM
Jack in Wi, if you comment on this post you're admitting for all eternity that you're the biggest Ho-Mo of all times(BHOAT)...
Now that I've gotten that out of my craw, Net-n-Yahoo has more brains in his little finger than EICOTUS has in his whole nappy H'aid, and I don't have any inside info, but I hear its gonna be a warm spring in I-ran, with occasional Mushroom Clouds.
Frank"100% Kosher" Drackman
Maxwell| 1.25.13 @ 8:37AM
Frank, with all due respect, I am waiting for Jack in Wi. to say, but my best friend is Jewish or I know Rabbi Hymie Schlomo Goldstein & talk to him every day to hear his views on all things Jewish.
TLP| 1.25.13 @ 6:45AM
In keeping with what I wrote yesterday, on an article - The words to the Rolling Stones' "Symphony for the Devil" - I would like to Invite You over to The Drudge Report for an Update.
For anyone who still doubts that this Man is anything other than what I've been saying he is? Look at the Pictures of The One, and remember: This is the Middle of Winter, and that This is not the first time we've seen this occur, with him.
And, the Son of a B*tch never even tries to get it off of him.
Can you say: Beelzebub.
Frank Drackman| 1.25.13 @ 6:53AM
thanks for ruining my "What were the Rolling Stones playing at Altamont when the Hells Angels stabbed that boy with the gun?(he could have put an eye out!)
Frank
Drunken Sailor| 1.25.13 @ 11:43AM
"stabbed that boy with the gun". I know you didn't mean it that way but somehow it still fits.
Frank Drackman| 1.25.13 @ 12:51PM
ahhh the old dangling Projectile, or Pronound, whatever its called, let me revert to my native Tongue(calm down Jack)
"Den Jungen, der mit der Handwaffe gestochen wurde"
is that better??
Frank
Jack in Wi| 1.25.13 @ 7:00AM
Nut-an-yahoo underperformed because there are a lot of sane Israeli's who didn't want him. His insane push for war with a non nuclear Iran is crazy. Most of the Israel's security services and military are against it, especially if the USA does not do all the dirty work. Israel Palistine is about 50% Jewish and 50% non Jewish. All you fifth columnists here tell me what you propose to do with these non Jewish people? You refuse to give them a country or civil rights in a united country. Is it aways going to be the an apartheid country or worse yet a zio-nazi state. Lets hope that the number of sane Israeli's grows and the looneys like Nut an Yahoo deminish more. The world needs peace in the Middle East. End the hate, end the murder, end the theft. Shalom
Frank Drackman| 1.25.13 @ 7:32AM
Jack, or as you shall be known from henceforth,
BHOAT(B-iggest H-omo- O-f A-ll T-imes)
"I don't remember askin you a Goddam thing!!"
OK I stole that from my Roll Model, Samuel L. Jackson, who has more testosterone in one of his Jerry-Curled hairs than you in your entire pale, Corpulent, Corpus. And you've got facial hair, admit it, all you Pediofiles do.
And you know the only reason you looked at this post was to deposit that pic of the young Israeli dudes to your spank bank.
And the gall of someone living in a State named after an X-stinct Indian tribe advising another Country on what to do with their land....almost as bad as your hetero-sexual Chair-aide...
OK I know, you french kissed Frank Sinatra(jr) better hope he doesnt find out your kissing and telling, oh Great BHOAT.
Frank "I'm the foot (redacted) master"Drackman
loulou| 1.25.13 @ 12:57PM
Just ignore Jacksh*t in Wi. He/she has no value.
Occam's Tool| 1.25.13 @ 1:33PM
Loulou: Indeed. Correct as usual. For example: "Israelis" needs know apostrophes.
His spelling and grammar reflect the quality of his thinking.
You, on the other hand, I picture as a Kate Upton look a like at a Mensa meeting. Am I that far off?
Occam's Tool| 1.25.13 @ 1:34PM
I hope you caught the "know" for "no." See how that sounds stupid, Jack?
7-08| 1.25.13 @ 7:46PM
Did you ever get to see Gin Wigmore or was that before your time?
Alan| 1.25.13 @ 4:33PM
The nazi dude must have one of those Jethro Bodeen 6th grade educations!
loulou| 1.25.13 @ 5:27PM
Really, no need to insult Jethro.
Doctor Right| 1.25.13 @ 11:52AM
Whatever, Jack.
He won.
Israel will survive and advance under his capable leadership.
And maybe they'll even find a way to take-out the Iranian nukes!
That's because a country like Iran - run by dangerous, Muslim fanatics - has NO business having nukes.
Says who? We do. And Israel!
Deal with it.
Job| 1.25.13 @ 11:58AM
there will be no peace in the Middle East; Jaerusalem will be compassed by armies.
interesting that Netanyahu is called a peacenik (compartively); also interesting that he was able to cobble together a coalition...if only Republicans...
Frank Drackman| 1.25.13 @ 12:48PM
would move to Israel??? don't think its gonna happen, its that whole reading right to left thang, gives me a headache, and I'm left handed....
Frank
Job| 1.25.13 @ 1:30PM
you need practice exercising the other side of your brain Frank, but take it easy or you'll get tennis elbow.
hrgfue | 1.25.13 @ 7:52PM
NFL,NBA,2013 Fashion kickoff for u
7-08| 1.25.13 @ 9:38PM
Rand Paul: 'Any Attack On Israel Will Be Treated As An Attack On The United States'
Kotorokun| 1.26.13 @ 9:16AM
I trust that TAS will cover the equally important elections in Tonga and Burkina Faso as they did the one in Israel. The world awaits the results from Ouagadougou with bated breath!
RCV| 1.28.13 @ 1:21PM
Here's one difference: Israel actually has elections, where people can make actual choices on their governance. All people.
Michele San Pietro| 1.26.13 @ 11:54AM
I think Netanyahu's victory is good for both Israel and the world. Personally, I have no doubt he will succeed in forming a government.