The morning papers on Saturday brought news of a new stratagem
by House Republicans to gain a bit of leverage on, or freedom of
maneuver around, the debt ceiling issue despite the limitations
imposed by the vox populi in the recent election.
“House GOP alters strategy in battle over debt ceiling,” was the
hard copy
headline in the Washington Post. The Wall Street
Journal’s
sub-heading was a bit more illuminating: “Republican Plan Would
Offer Three-Month Reprieve; Leaders Vow to Fight for Spending Cuts
Elsewhere.”
In essence, the GOP caucus will extend the debt ceiling deadline
until April at which time the matter of the sequestration, which
will impose substantial cuts on both domestic and defense spending,
comes up on the calendar along with the expiration of budget or
spending authority for the government.
It is unclear where this strategy is going, but it is an
improvement over previous kamikaze ideas, such as just
saying “No” to raising the debt ceiling, which were being bandied
about by some of the more exotic members of the caucus. An argument
could be made that, politically, the Republicans would be better
off completely severing the debate over spending cuts, entitlements
and tax reform from the “lose-lose” issue of the debt ceiling. That
said, this new approach seems to be by-product of the leadership,
credibility and prudence of House Budget Chair Paul Ryan
(R-WI).
Prudence, prudentia in the Latin, is a virtue with a
long and noble lineage extending back to pagan philosophers. It is
one of the Cardinal virtues. St. Thomas Aquinas ranked it first
since it relates to the intellect. It can be characterized as
“right reason applied to practice” (recta ratio
agibilium). Unlike a theological virtue such as hope or love,
which are not derived from reason, only from revelation, Cardinal
virtues are accessible to all people through the exercise of their
reason. This is so even if it seems to be in short supply in the
everyday world of human affairs, especially in Washington, D.C.
Prudence has gotten a bum rap in modern times since it is
usually associated with tentativeness, caution, or indecision as in
“Wouldn’t
be prudent” (apologies to Dana Carvey).
So it is reassuring that Paul Ryan stepped forward to counsel
his caucus on how to approach the intertwined issues of the debt
ceiling, sequestration, and the overall budget without
self-immolating themselves. He proposed this short-term extension
of the debt ceiling limit in order to align the discussion of that
matter with those relating to the upcoming sequestration and the
regular budget process coming in March.
The GOP House members were camped out in historic Williamsburg,
Virginia, to rest, regroup, and strategize for the next session.
They had to struggle with the hard reality that they are boxed in
by a Democratic President and Senate as was painfully evident in
the recent showdown on the “fiscal cliff.” While they may take some
solace in making permanent the Bush-era tax rates, for all but the
wealthiest Americans, there was retrograde movement on spending and
tax reform thanks to the perfidious Senate whose members still have
a hankerin’ for pork and rent-seeking.
Paul Ryan cannot be accused of tentativeness, excessive
cautiousness, or indecision. He is the only elected official in the
House, Senate, or White House who has had the knowledge, expertise,
and fortitude (another Cardinal virtue!) to propose a systemic
solution to the multi-faceted Death Star looming over future
generations of Americans — Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security,
and interest on the debt — all of which will gobble up the lion’s
share of the federal budget or necessitate tax increases that would
make even a French politician shudder. Moreover, his legislation
was supported by almost the entire caucus most of whom survived the
2012 election and lived to tell the tale.
Reports coming out of Williamsburg
indicated that Ryan was working his colleagues hard: “We’re
discussing the possible virtue of a short-term debt limit extension
so that we have a better chance of getting the Senate and the White
House involved in discussions this March.”
Besides allowing time for serious negotiations over spending
levels, sequestration, and the overall budget for the federal
government, the extension would broaden the discussion to things
which must be dealt with, e.g., the sequestration, while reducing
the saliency of the debt ceiling as a political issue. Let’s face
it: When discussing shutting down the government, Republicans are
at great risk and playing defense. When discussing budget-cutting
or tax reform, they are on offense.
“We think the worst thing for the economy is for this Congress
and this administration to do nothing to get debt and deficits
under control,”
said Ryan.
Numerous defense experts say that automatic budget
sequestration, equal parts domestic cuts and defense cuts, would
have devastating effects. They say we should negotiate a shifting
of cuts to other non-defense budget items. Given that national
defense is one of the primary constitutional functions of the
federal government, it is certainly worth a shot. But I am not
holding my breath. It will be difficult to come up with additional
spending cuts to compensate for restoring defense spending in the
budget. Democrats will not allow that. Would Republicans then give
defense a pass on the sequestration at the risk of undercutting
their budget cutting street cred? The hard truth is this: if you
take several decades building a European-style welfare state —
with bipartisan support — you are going to wind up with a
European-style defense budget at some point. It is axiomatic. We
may be at that point now.
Ryan the Prudent worked hard to educate the House GOP, most
notably freshmen, on the various moving parts of the budget process
and what can or cannot be done from a very narrow power base in the
House of Representatives. “Paul Ryan Warns Republicans To Temper
Expectations,” was the
headline on Buzzfeed, which quoted Ryan as saying, “I think
what matters most is that people have a very clear view of what’s
coming, so that there are no surprises… that means setting
expectations accordingly, so that we move forward on a unified
basis.”
Yes, that pesky separation of powers thing can be a real
obstacle. Regarding the debt ceiling limit, the only leverage the
Republicans have, i.e., shutting down the government, is really no
leverage at all. There are no hostages to shoot, just
themselves.
Ryan’s idea is the best one available to the GOP in the present
circumstances.
“Our goal is to make sure our members understand all the
deadlines that are coming, all the consequences of those deadlines
that are coming, in order so that we can make a better-informed
decision about how to move, how to proceed,” said Ryan.
“Out of that we hope to achieve consensus on a plan to proceed
so that we can make progress on controlling spending and deficits
and debt,” he said.
“We also have to recognize the realities of the divided
government that we have,” Ryan said.
That is a great example of Midwestern understatement. The
President, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid haven’t the slightest
interest in controlling spending, deficits, debt, and cascading
entitlement obligations. If this continues to be the case, the
likely outcome is that the debt ceiling is raised, sequestration
works the Congress’s will on the entire discretionary budget
(domestic and defense), but entitlements are left untouched by
reform or rational restructuring. Don’t even think about tax
reform.
Elections, as they say, have consequences. We are living with
them now.
