-
The Chinese Waltz
May 24, 2013 | 2 comments
-
The View From the Other Side
May 17, 2013 | 23 comments
-
Cyprus Uber Alles
May 10, 2013 | 9 comments
-
After Hugo
May 3, 2013 | 16 comments
-
Theory and Practice of Terrorism
April 26, 2013 | 24 comments
At Large
Syria Backstory
If Assad is to be replaced, who will replace the Alawites?
A definitive statement was made last week by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that any settlement of the conflict in Syria could not involve Bashar al-Assad. Nonetheless, it has to be acknowledged that the Assad family and its fellow Alawite clan members have been key for over forty years in holding together the always fractious Syrian community. Removing the extended Assad family and its heavily armed and militarized sect relatives would require the creation of an entirely new unifying structure.
There is in some quarters the mistaken belief that the Syria’s Alawite minority has held a traditional power role in that country. The reality is this grouping contains only 10-12% of the population and owes its national political and military position primarily to the Baath Party connections and success of the most recent family patriarch, the late Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father. Hafez rose from Syrian Air Force Intelligence to a key role in the military wing of the secular Baath Party.
The Alawite sect before the rise of Hafez al-Assad was disadvantaged not only politically, but also economically. Generally they were a poor people scraping a living from their mountainous region in northern Syria or working for rich Sunni landowners on the coast. A high number of Alawites became officers as a result of advancing in the ranks of the Syrian armed forces, which in the late sixties had grown in relationship to a Baath Party now strongly influenced, if not controlled, by the military. The high number of Alawites in the officer ranks gave them a new political advantage.
With an eye to strengthening the internal national structure, a particular effort was made initially, in spite of the minority Alawite dominance, to appoint Sunnis to leading positions. Alawite leadership originally was quite conscious of the dangers implicit in any political imbalance. The natural clannishness of the Alawites and the parallel suspicions of the Sunnis, however, tended to encourage conspiratorial notions on both sides. As a result, antagonism between both elements grew and persisted. The Sunni Islamist uprising in Hama in February 1982 was seen by the Assad government as an organized plot by the Syrian wing of the Muslim Brotherhood. The result was an all-out assault on the city by government forces, killing reportedly over 20,000 Sunni and establishing precedent for today’s conflict.
The Alawites’ religious differences with their Sunni countrymen are not as stark as some would suggest. The Alawites have pursued a moderate and non-aggressive interpretation of the Twelver Shia belief, though recently they have played the fellow-Shia card with the Iranians to whatever benefit they could gain. Of course the same manipulation has worked similarly in reverse. While these demographic factors remain predominant in discussion, the fact is that the kinship of Syria’s Kurdish minority with their ethnic fraternity in Iraq and Turkey presents a cross-border allegiance and nationalist drive that without a strong central government in Damascus could alter the face of all three countries.
The Maronite Christian grouping of the powerful Franjieh clan of northern Lebanon has worked closely with its Alawite neighbors on the Syrian side of the border. A particular friendship exists with the extended Assad family. Thus it can be seen that future Syrian governance will have to take into consideration many subtle political and economic ties. The problem that exists now, however, is that the Alawite community is convinced it is faced with a possible return to its 1950s pre-Baathist life of exploitation by the Sunni majority.
Foreigners are generally unacquainted with the complex familial, clan and tribal relationships that so greatly influence Middle Eastern village life. The Assad family has been important in tribal life in the northern mountains of Syria since Bashar al-Assad’s great-grandfather established his and his kinsmen as “protectors” of their village region. In modern times a split occurred between Hafez and his younger brother, Rifaat, the head of security affairs, that ended up with the latter fleeing to France, then England. This division could be an important factor in Syria’s future should Rifaat’s wing of the family wish to contest for Syria’s leadership if and when President Bashar al-Assad departs.
This type of conflict within the Assad family ranks exists to a certain degree within the Alawite sect as a whole. But such complication pales in comparison to the divisions within the much larger and complex Sunni community. Hafez al-Assad was very attentive to rewarding key Sunni politicians and military officers. As a result there is a large cadre of former pro-Assad Sunni personalities capable of influencing any post-Assad period that outsiders might envision. In fact, most of the major Sunni leaders of today once held important roles in earlier Assad governments.
According to Jordanian official sources, the proliferation of weapons within the Syrian rebel groups present great danger for a peaceful evolution in any form of cessation of the civil war. Specifically it is expected that it will be especially difficult to disarm and demobilize the various local militias that have been formed. An additional question involves the future of Syria’s existing armed forces – particularly the special security force of the Presidential Guard and the elite 4th Armored Division commanded by Bashar’s brother, Maher al-Assad.
Iran will do its best to ensure its continued connection through Syria with Syria’s Lebanese acolytes, Hezbollah. At the same time Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have been stalwart in their assistance to the Sunni refugees and fighting groups, certainly will wish to have a major impact on a future democratically-responsive Syrian government. Once again the need for a strong central leadership will reward the best organized and strongest political cohort in the country. And who that is has just as much to do with the quality and character of its foreign allies as it has with the internal group’s own composition.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (24) | Leave a comment
More Articles by George H. Wittman
More Articles From At Large
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/12/14/syria-backstory
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
The Spectacle Blog
The #FreeKate Narrative Melts Down: Lies Exposed in Florida Teen Sex Case
Robert Stacy McCain | 5.25.13
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
H/T to National Review Online
ADVERTISEMENT
Wim Roffel | 12.14.12 @ 7:11AM
This article exaggerates the sectarian element.
Before 1900 Alawites were a kind of pariahs in Syria. A 13th century fatwa against them by Taymiya is still popular among fundamentalist Sunni. Both in 1982 and now it were these fundamentalist Sunni who appealed to sectarian sentiments - not the Alawites. The 1982 massacre in Hama was a reaction against targeted killing of Alawites.
The Alawites got their prominence in the army during the time of French rule. But one should not confuse Assad's reliance on them with sectarian rule. It is just what many authoritarian rulers do - having a trusted core of allies.
Secular Syria is not a natural ally for fundamentalist Iran. What unites them is the antipathy of the US and competition for power with Saudi Arabia in Lebanon.
News reports indicate that most people in Aleppo, Damascus and Raqqa province - to name just a few - prefer Assad above the rebels. Assad has also the support of most of the middle and upper class and ethnic and religious minorities. So Clinton's demand that Assad should have no role in the future of Syria denies a large part of the Syrians a say in the future of their country.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new.....Assad.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/na.....7163.story
Jack in Wi| 12.14.12 @ 7:47AM
Wim: Excellent comments. Assad like Saddam Hussain was a secular ruler and modernizer. He had the support of many minorities in Syria. Like Husain he had the support of the Christian communities who they protected from Islamic radicals. Saudi Arabia and Israel are the radicals in the region causing nothing but instability. The whole Middle East would be a lot better place without the religious extremists. 60 years ago almost all governments in the region were secular in nature, even Israel. The exception was Saudi Arabia. Today the opposite is true. 60 years of American interference has left the region a far worse place.
Al Brooks, bleedingheartlib | 12.15.12 @ 7:00PM
"60 years of American interference has left the region a far worse place."
Agreed.
Wittman is a jingoist.
Al Brooks, bleedingheartlib | 12.15.12 @ 7:02PM
...besides, Clinton said Assad [must go], not the entire clan.
Bruria| 12.16.12 @ 11:02AM
"""Saudi Arabia and Israel are the radicals in the region causing nothing but instability. """how exactly did you figure it out, sir? have your ever visited Israel for, say, a week, ? we are not a religious state, sir. you don't have to believe the NY Times or CNN. the rabis may be in the government but all they want is money from the state nothing else concerns them. i suggest you come with your partner to israel as a tourist (not with an organized tour) and see for yourself, sir. the only thing i'm afraid of is the shock you'll get.
Al Brooks, bleedingheartlib | 12.16.12 @ 7:03PM
Can't speak (write) for Jack, but I'm not going anywhere near the Mideast. Israel is a better nation than the rest in the region-- but that's not saying much.
And then there's Ashcanistan, which we'll spend another trillion or two on, possibly three; because when we leave another Cambodia-holocaust occurs-- so we wont leave. The year of departure will be pushed forward from 2014 .
Pecos Pete| 12.14.12 @ 8:14AM
Mr. Wittman: There will be NO " future democratically-responsive Syrian government" unless Hell freezes over. The middle east will never be peaceful nor will it ever be governed by democratically elected representatives. There will always be tribal warfare. Not to mention the internal divisions of the Muslim religion.
pogybait| 12.14.12 @ 9:44AM
All this article does is blatantly confuses the conclusions of congressional Democrats who have watched this illegal and immoral war of Assad unfold on CNN and read about it every day in the New York Times. No doubt that we need someone in leadership in the Alawite sect that would be admired and revered by Hollywood celebrities whose opinions we rely on. Since the Democrat Party has always been a Big Tent full of real, authentic, occasionally imperfect yet vastly superior people, this would be the perfect opportunity for the Obama presidency to offer someone in the Alawite community a cabinet post in the newly formed democratically-responsive Syrian government…..problem solved.
Belianis | 12.16.12 @ 12:35PM
I wish I could offer a positive response to your post, but the behaviour of the Arabs since the time of the creation of Israel has been so perversily foolish and malevolent that the only sensible suggestion I have is to let them exterminate each other utterly. It is their own fault, and theirs alone, that they cannot live as free people in peace with other peoples.
You have a great gift for sarcasm; do you write comedy material?
cicero| 12.14.12 @ 1:26PM
Syria is only a part of the war for supremacy currently going on in the Middle East and across north Africa. It is also bleeding into Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa. The Muslim Brotherhood has waited for almost 90 years for this oportunity. Now they have the chaos they need, and the backing of the useful idiots in the West to fund and arm them. They are saying what they must say to get the support. As soon as the Assads are gone, there will be the semblance of elections, or a benevolent interim government, and once the dust clears, sharia will reign supreme supreme. At that point, the Christians, Alawites, andd any non-islamist will be driven out. The more things change, the more... All you have to do is go back and review every rigime change in the Muslim world from the 8th century forward.
Occam's Tool| 12.14.12 @ 2:33PM
475 kiloton airburst over Damascus tomorrow: problem solved.
I wonder where Assad got his chemical WMDs from? Couldn't have been...Iraq? Hmmmm....
Occam's Tool| 12.14.12 @ 2:34PM
Islam is a religion that is naturally repressive, stemming from the child molesting mass murdering thief who is the prophet of the religion. Sorry, Jack, but facts are facts. Islam kills and oppresses wherever it spreads.
Vic| 12.14.12 @ 2:40PM
Couldn't agree more! Forget about the Syrians. Let them murder each other for all I care
Vic| 12.14.12 @ 2:39PM
I am not even sure why we are involved here. Moreover regarding your question about the Alawites I read someplace that the rebels want to send them all to their grave!
JmsA| 12.14.12 @ 8:53PM
Something to think about:
1000 Years, by Major General Jerry Curry, USA, Ret.
The great British poet Rudyard Kipling, understanding today's situation in Afghanistan better than our State Department wrote, I have eaten your bread and salt. I have drunk your water and wine. The deaths ye died I have watched beside. And the lives ye led were mine.
There are two points the President and the Secretaries of State and Defense may want to keep in mind as they evaluate future problems in the Middle East and how to successfully address them. Both are easiest illustrated by real life happenings.
Many years ago I attended the Infantry officer Advanced Course at Fort Benning, Georgia. Probably ten percent of the students attending that ten month course of instruction were from foreign countries. For about half of the course my table mate was an Arab. We studied together, completed homework assignments together, got to know each others families and generally enjoyed each others company.
JmsA| 12.14.12 @ 8:55PM
Continued:
Part of that time we students were immersed in reading about, researching and discussing wars and problems of the Middle East. By this time my Arab classmate and I had, I thought, become close friends. A question popped into my mind and without evaluating it I said, I have a question to ask you, but you may find it a little impertinent . or, perhaps, offensive.
That's quite alright, he replied. We know each other well enough to be honest with each other. So go ahead and ask your question.
Well, I began. Each time you Arabs start a war with Israel, they beat your socks off. Why don't you learn your lesson and quit making war on them?
The words hadn't passed my lips before I knew that I shouldn't have asked that particular question. But I was wrong. My Arab officer friend didn't get angry. He didn't even think before replying.
My dear friend, he said in his British accent, You are absolutely right. Each time we attack the Israelis they whip our asses. But have you noticed that with each loss we get better. We get whipped not as badly as in the war before.
Then he got a faraway look in his eyes, pounded on the table and said, Sometime in the next thousand years . we will win!
JmsA| 12.14.12 @ 8:57PM
Continued:
Up until then I had never thought in terms of a thousand years, and I don't think I'm very good at it today. But for those formulating foreign and defense policy for the nation, it is worth making the effort. For it is difficult to think in terms of the immediate future while negotiating with a nation whose leaders are thinking in terms of hundreds or thousands of years.
Point two: during the first Gulf War U.S. and Arab forces fought side by side and some of the officers became close friends. When the war ended in victory there was a celebration in the officers club with everyone congratulating each other. A lot of handshaking and hugging was going on. It was a time of displaying real brotherly love. Seeing this, one of the senior Arab generals felt the need to set the record straight. Look, he said to a small cluster of American generals. We have fought together and some of us have died together. I know you feel that makes us brothers. But that is not the way it is in my world.
JmsA| 12.14.12 @ 8:58PM
Continued:
He looked around the circle making eye contact with all of them. I don't want to see you hurt so I need to share this with you. There will be no tomorrow for us jointly. No matter how much you have helped my country and you came and helped us when we desperately needed your help and no matter how friendly you feel toward us, we are still Muslims and you are still Christians. That means that in our eyes, we can never be brothers. I'm sorry but to us, you will always be Infidels!
And so we Infidels have liberated Iraq and Afghanistan, but we have not made their countries nor their people depositories of freedom and liberty. No matter how hard we work to rebuild their governments, infrastructure, educational and medical institutions, and no matter how desperately they need our help as the Arab general pointedly noted we can never be brothers to each other.
Also, I learned what Kipling meant when he wrote, East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet. He was pointing out to the western world that to Muslims, we Christians will always be infidels!
Bruria| 12.16.12 @ 11:12AM
thank you JmsA , i live in Israel and know something about islam. your analysis is overwelmingly accurate, and the narrative told in the most civilised manner. bless you
sdfhlk | 12.14.12 @ 9:09PM
merry christmas to u,thank you so much.
JmsA| 12.14.12 @ 9:34PM
Just for the sake of argument:
Although various religions throughout the ages have claimed to be the final and true faith, the world of Islam is held in mortmain by the prophet, and as such cannot advance beyond the forms in which he embodied his message without denying the claims he made for himself. Conversely, as Christianity sprang out of Judaism, and as such enshrines and suggests the idea of progress in the very circumstances of its origin, it also arguably embodies the idea of something deeper than or transcendent that its connection with Judaism. Therefore staking its claim to be the final religion, as it differs in kind from the parallel claim of Mohammedanism, Christianity’s claim of finality rests on its opening up endless possibilities of spiritual growth to mankind. Islam, absent any apparently viable argument to the contrary, appears if not conceptually limited, but also exclusionary, and mostly, if not altogether retrograde relative to humanity's ongoing efforts towards lasting enlightenment and freedom.
JmsA| 12.14.12 @ 9:43PM
CORRECTION: Meant to write ...or trascendent than its...
Dimitry_Aleksandrovich| 12.15.12 @ 3:12AM
Lets make something clear right here and right now. If Assad goes and the Sunni Islamists of the FSA (that the U.S. now considers "the sole legitimate authority of the Syrian people) take over in Damascus the Alawites aren't just facing exploitation at the hands of the Sunnis they face ethnic cleansing and possibly even genocide. The same goes for Christians, Druze, Kurds and Jews.
sdfhlk | 12.16.12 @ 10:34PM
i am sorry with it .