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The Hell-Hole Spectator
North Korea’s Rocket Man
Kim Jong-un is also proving his regime is unreformable.
North Korea launched a rocket. Denunciations flowed around the world. But it was a non-event, one of the least surprising “crises” of the year.
A year ago the much beloved “Dear Leader” died as he indefatigably devoted himself to his people’s welfare. Wailing crowds mourned his passing. Kim’s son, the “Great Successor” Kim Jong-un — tagged the world’s sexiest man by the Onion — took the helm of state.
Since then there have been stories of imminent change. The 29-year-old Kim went to boarding school in Switzerland where he reportedly followed American basketball and lionized Michael Jordan. He regularly speaks to the public and enjoys meeting regular folks. He likes Disney and takes his beautiful young wife with him. She has a taste for fine fashion and designer goods. Obviously Kim is a liberal reformer.
North Korea watchers especially are expecting fundamental economic reform. After all, Kim fils has repeatedly emphasized the need to improve living standards. His uncle, Jang Song-taek, seen by some as the real power behind the throne, reportedly has emphasized economic policy. A top military man was defenestrated from the corridors of power apparently to reassert party control over civilian enterprises controlled by the army. Reports have circulated that Pyongyang is relaxing controls over both factories and farms.
So far, however, nothing much seems to have happened. It’s a bit like the appointment of KGB head Yuri Andropov as the General Secretary of the Soviet Communist Party. He reportedly enjoyed jazz and Gypsy music, drank scotch whiskey, wore tailored clothes, laughed at political jokes, and collected abstract art. Never mind the many human rights violations committed on his watch, observers tagged him as a liberal reformer. Alas, Andropov merely reinforced the status quo. The USSR actually grew more repressive and enfeebled on his watch.
Still, serious people have been hoping for reform in Pyongyang. Alas, the dream has died with the so-called Democratic Republic of Korea’s latest rocket test.
The Kim government insisted that it was merely sending a satellite into space. However, few observers believe that Pyongyang, with active missile and nuclear programs underway, had such limited objectives. Moreover, the North tested another rocket in April, which proved to be less successful, wrecking a deal reached shortly before with the Obama administration. .
There are several important lessons from the latest incident. First, Kim Jong-un — whether as symbolic leader or genuine ruler — is acting as a true successor to his father and grandfather. There has been no improvement in human rights; to the contrary, the regime has tightened border enforcement, sharply reducing the flow of refugees across the Yalu into China. So far the leadership has exhibited greater interest in increasing party control over government economic activity than in relaxing party control over private economic activity. The hint of “glasnost” after the failed rocket launch in April has not been followed by any evidence of “perestroika.”
Second, North Korea’s problem is the system. Undoubtedly, there are “moderates” and “technocrats” within the DPRK government. There may even be a few “liberals.” However, there is no evident opening for them to influence policy. Any serious reform would threaten the positions, livelihoods, and even lives of a regime full of apparatchiks. It would be hard enough for Kim Il-sung or Kim Jong-il at the height of their powers to drag the Korean Workers Party and Korean People’s Army into the 21st century. A newer, less certain, and likely collective leadership isn’t likely to try.
Third, Kim Jong-un and Co. continue the regime’s “military first” policy in substance if not name. Although the ouster of army chief of staff Ri Yong-ho may have reimposed party control over the military, the armed services continue to consume a prodigious share of the country’s economic resources. By one estimate the missile launch facility, related operations, and two launches this year cost $1.3 billion. That’s more than three percent of the country’s estimated GDP, and enough to purchase 4.6 million tons of corn for a starving population.
Moreover, North Korea’s nuclear program apparently continues apace. Rumors abound of a possible nuclear test. South Koreans worry that the North will follow its missile launch with a nuclear blast, highlighting the threat if Pyongyang marries bomb and rocket. Even if the military has lost clout vis-à-vis the party, it retains its predominant position vis-à-vis the people.
Fourth, China lacks the willingness to even try to restrain Pyongyang. Beijing blessed, however reluctantly, the monarchical power transfer from Kim Il-sung to Kim Jong-il. The People’s Republic of China has done the same for the shift from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un. Indeed, Chinese investment in the DPRK has increased in recent years. Rising academic and public debate over the value of Beijing’s alliance with the North has not been matched by any change in Chinese government behavior. The PRC appears to have decided that North Korea’s survival is a vital interest, no matter how irresponsible and provocative Pyongyang’s behavior. With President Xi Jinping barely a month into his presidency, any switch in official policy seems far off if ever.
Fifth, any softening of South Korean policy toward the North would reflect the triumph of hope over experience. The “Sunshine Policy” was a well-meaning attempt to buy liberalization in the DPRK. Alas, the effort was a complete failure. Republic of Korea President Kim Dae-jung bought a summit meeting that was never reciprocated. For a decade North Korea pocketed food, money, fertilizer, and more without moderating its splenetic rhetoric, reducing its conventional threats, or slowing its missile and nuclear programs. When the Lee administration finally closed the aid spigot Pyongyang responded with attacks on a South Korean ship and island. So continues the North’s policy today.
Sixth, it does not pay to reward the DPRK in response to its threats. For years a pattern developed of North Korea issuing threats and then temporarily sitting down at the negotiating table in return for money, food, energy, and other benefits. Unfortunately, Pyongyang has learned that it gains the most when it threatens the most. Even with an agreement in hand earlier this year to trade food assistance for a return to the Six Party Talks, the North moved ahead with its rocket test, wrecking the entire deal. Only continuing and firm Western denial will cause the DPRK to unlearn this pattern.
Seventh, there is little positive for anyone to do with Pyongyang. The North Korean leadership likely puts survival above all other objectives. While economic reform might strengthen the country, it could weaken the state, empowering anti-regime forces. Political reform would be even more dangerous. Years of privation and starvation have weakened government controls and exposed regime myths. Give the North Korean people their druthers and Kim Jong-un might end up hanging from the nearest lamppost. The DPRK is a system without a soft landing for political losers. The risks are far greater than the rewards of liberalization.
About the Author
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author and editor of several books, including The Politics of Plunder: Misgovernment in Washington (Transaction).
Letter to the Editor View all comments (24) | Leave a comment
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Appleby| 12.13.12 @ 7:07AM
So this rocket can reach Hawaii. Has anyone sent him the coordinates of King and Queen Zero's new squat?
RCV| 12.13.12 @ 11:31AM
Sounds like something a real American like you would think of.
Occam's Tool| 12.13.12 @ 4:54PM
Essentially, the NKs are getting to the point where they can threaten our ally in Japan. What the hell are we doing about it, RCV? See my solution, below.
RJ| 12.13.12 @ 7:56AM
Any conservative who thinks surrendering ground to Obama is a good idea because Obama will own the resulting failure and his supporters will learn from it, should be reminded of North Korea.
As far as Andropov, yes much of the American media thought of him as a moderate, even though he tried to murder the Pope. What a standard. Further evidence that much of the American media is not worth listening to - they are either fools or liars.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 9:09AM
I agree with Bandow, as far as the fact that we don't need any people in South Korea. Give'em Nukes of their own, Anti-Missile Batteries, and Laser Technology, and let them go about the job of Defending themselves.
Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and whoever else feels impacted, if not imperiled, by China's newfound Belligerence, would be wise to start up their own Defensive Pact.
The Forces of Darkness are on the move, and awash in Cash. Not a good combination.
I know: Let's gut OUR Military by $50 Billion a year, for the next 10 Years.
What could possibly go wrong?
RJ| 12.13.12 @ 4:29PM
I would be happy to see our troops leave South Korea and I don't see much benefit in US participation in NATO. The people in Washington need to be reminded that the US Armed Forces exist to defend the United States and its interests. American volunteers should never be thought of as policemen for the world.
Hardcard| 12.13.12 @ 8:12AM
This space junk is scheduled to land on Dec.21. gee who would have thunk it? Maybe we can send these commie bastards more of our tax dollars so they don't starve. The rocketman dude looks kind of fat though, we can include moochelles calorie counter .
Von Mises Jr| 12.13.12 @ 9:32AM
North Korea's rocket launch tumbling out of control is a perfect metaphor for Obama's foreign policy. Perhaps Barry and Hillary should declare an "Asian Spring?"
To fund this "Asian Spring" would be a piece of cake, perhaps "yellow cake." We can have China put the aid on our tab and they can truck the dollars right across the mountains without having to even get involved. I propose $2 trillion. Hell, if we can spend almost that to give illegal Mexican Aliens health care, it would be racist to neglect little commie Asians. If health care is a right, then food must be even higher up the scale as a human right.
Al Adab| 12.13.12 @ 10:53AM
The threat posed by N K is one which has been pending for about 20 years. Clinton dealt with its emergence by buying off NK with the provision of reactors ofr "peaceful" purposes. That worked out well. Very similar to the way this administration and sadly its predesessor dealt with the emerging Iranian threat. Both have reached the critical mass (pun intended) point yet action is wanting.
Pecos Pete| 12.13.12 @ 8:25AM
North Korea looks like the source for King O's planning for the USA. Four more years of King O's fascist criminal enterprise will further entrench the czars and their entombment of liberty in the USA.
c. j. acworth| 12.13.12 @ 9:00AM
Actually, Pete, I was thinking that the newest edition of Kim should take a page from the playbook of our own Dear Leader and just raise taxes on all the millionaires and billionaires that their wonderful system has produced. If they complain, he can just say "Hey, you didn't build that."
Albert Constantine Jr.| 12.13.12 @ 10:07AM
Actually, I think Kim and Barry both share the notion that all money and resources belong to the government, and they just let the people hold them for a little while.
Just as he publicly remarked how he envied the ease with which the Chinese government could institute its will on the people in executing its infrastructure projects, I would not be surprised if he envied the Kim's rejection of term limits and ability to develop consensus.
Al Adab| 12.13.12 @ 10:50AM
Albert, your first sentence hits hte issue on the head. The Left does indeed believe that all wealth is ultimately property of the government save only what they allow us to keep. That is so contradictory to the entire American experience as to be laughable were it not for the fact that the current administration believes it is so.
Government exists to protect the wealth, property and rights of the citizens, not to "benevolently" provide our pottage from the resources of others.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:07PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
Rayzorback| 12.13.12 @ 8:53AM
So.... the "Rocketman" now has a 3 stage Rocket huh? Maybe would should go ahead and show him how the Bomb part works. I don't think he understands "Japanese".
CrackerHound| 12.13.12 @ 10:35AM
Yea, they HAD a three stage rocket. The problem for NK is that was probably the ONLY one.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 12.13.12 @ 12:32PM
Like Daffy Duck sputtering at the end of the Looney Tunes cartoon where he blows himself up, "The problem is I can only do it once".
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:08PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
Bill8472| 12.13.12 @ 10:16AM
When North Korea fired its rocket, how come the U.S. didn't use that moment to test its SDI satellite laser capacity? It would have been a good practical learning moment.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 4:06PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
You really need to go to this.
It's about Pugsley's Rocket.
Al Adab| 12.13.12 @ 11:09AM
Time magazine picks Kim as Man of the Year.
US administration waffles on comments concerning launch.
Doctor Right| 12.13.12 @ 12:49PM
North Korea is the plu-perfect example of dealing with the Left.
To wit: They will do anything, say anything, and tell any lie to advance their cause...
...And the fools in the western world continue to lap it up like dogs (err...running dogs).
China has no interest in a de-fanged, liberalized North Korea. First of all, they're still fraternal commies, and all that implies.
Second, while the rest of the world is worrying about the next move this loony nation makes, no one is really watching China...and China, a brutal, one-party state, looks positively reasonable by comparison.
Our policy towards North Korea has been absurd for over 20 years. The end of the Cold War should have seen a strong effort to topple this regime, but instead Clinton propped them up with an economic lifeline and enabled them to build nuclear weapons.
North Korea is a sociopathic state; the people are brainwashed, and the ruling elite are bloodthirsty and ambitious.
They have nukes...and soon, they'll be able to put one on a missile and threaten the western Pacific rim.
And that's the only thing about North Korea you can trust:
They WILL use their nukes.
Stan Redmond| 12.13.12 @ 5:58PM
Or sell it. Iran, Venezuela, Eqypt, I'm sure there's lot of willing customers.
Occam's Tool| 12.13.12 @ 4:52PM
A sufficient number of 475 kiloton airbursts could eliminate this problem with minimal radioactive fallout and contamination.