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Special Report
Analyzing Egypt
Mohammed Morsi and the Islamists have the upper hand heading into Saturday’s referendum.
(Page 2 of 2)
While one can interpret the postponement of the increases in taxation as a sign of government indecision on how to deal with the economic crisis, it is more likely that Morsi will simply reinstate the tax hikes soon after the constitutional referendum is approved, since he has realized that introducing them, which he knows will be unpopular, at this moment would give a means for the opposition to attract significant further support.
Indeed, it is clear that Morsi’s economic plans, which have included a decree (passed while the November 22 constitutional decree was in force, hence it is beyond legal challenge now) to increase government control over trade unions, are of grave concern to independent labor unions, many of which are concentrated in the industrial city of Mahalla.
Mahalla was the site of the protests that sparked the 2008 general strike in Egypt and has now seen workers throw out the head of the local city council and declare autonomy from the “Ikhwani state,” under the guise of the “Independent Republic of Greater Mahalla” (hat-tip: Ben Jefferies in Cairo for first drawing this development to my attention).
Of course, opposition in Mahalla to Morsi’s 22 November decree and the Brotherhood’s Islamist ideology played a role in this autonomy declaration too, but in this context, one should also note the clear tensions between Tunisia’s labor unions and the Islamist-led government that has plans for a neo-liberal economic approach. In Tunisia, Islamist vigilantes have attacked the headquarters of the country’s main trade union: the UGTT.
Voting in the Constitutional Referendum and the Future: To conclude, while both the Islamist factions and their rivals have rallied significant numbers of people in support of and in opposition to the draft respectively, it should not be inferred that the vote will be split 50-50 in the referendum on Saturday. Rather, it is more likely that the referendum will see a majority vote in favor of the constitution.
The fact that the voting in the presidential race was almost split 50-50 does not indicate that the country is equally divided between Islamists and non-Islamists. In the circumstances immediately leading up to the run-off between Morsi and Ahmed Shafik, it is clear that many Islamists would have believed the election would ultimately be rigged in the latter’s favor, and so would not have turned up to vote.
Despite the call by the main opposition organizations to vote “No” in the referendum (in turn, despite the announcement by the Judges Club that most judges will boycott the referendum, advisers to Morsi claim they have enough judicial officials to oversee the voting), it is clear that this decision has finally come in the circumstances of deep division and indecision within opposition forces as to whether to boycott the referendum or take part in the voting.
The notion of boycotting — now declared by the National Salvation Front to be conditional — illustrates the severe doubts within the opposition as to whether the draft constitution can be turned down.
Since the referendum will likely approve the constitution, there should be new parliamentary elections within two months, which will probably be dominated by Islamist factions as well. Even so, instability with street clashes, rival rallies, and outbreaks of violence will remain a staple of Egypt’s political landscape.
Further, this unrest will not be limited to discontent with Islamist majoritarianism, but will also entail issues such as the tax hikes and Egypt’s potential shift to net importer of natural gas. The superior position of the Islamist factions is unlikely to be overthrown in the near future, but one should not discount a descent into anarchy over the course of ten years or so.
About the Author
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University. His website is http://www.aymennjawad.org.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (28) | Leave a comment
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TLP| 12.13.12 @ 7:46AM
Until it's all turned to Glass, there will never be Peace.
It's gonna need to happen, anyway.
I say: Do it now, before they strike first.
It really is, just that simple.
If they had a Nuke on 911? They would have used it, and EVERYBODY knows it. If they get their hands on a Biological Weapon? They will use it.
Must we always learn the Hard Way?
Jack in Wi| 12.13.12 @ 7:54AM
Your call for mass murder and mass genocide is disgraceful. Lets get the hell out and leave these people alone. They don't need us and we have wasted trillions on the Middle East for no sane reason. It is none of our business and never has been.
Stephie| 12.13.12 @ 8:31AM
I agree with you Jack that we need to leave the middle east. Every last soldier should be brought home. The problem is, obama has inserted himself in helping to remove Mubarik and the Libyan leader to help insert his muslim brotherhood buddies. If the American people can't see what's happening here, there are indeed blind. He is a muslim and has put many muslims in our government. I hold out little hope for our country especially since we don't have a media who will even report the violence happening in MI. The elect the presidents and Hillary is next. The slobbering love affair will begin when barry's term is about up. The man of color will move along and then they can put the first woman in the White House.
We're finished.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:54PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 10:04AM
Hey. I'm just stating the obvious.
We Irradiate Cancers all the time.
They are the living embodiment of a Human Cancer. Wherever they insert themselves, Death is sure to follow. They spread across the land, killing Everyone that isn't like them. Everyone they come in contact with. Like any other Cancer, nobody can Coexist with them. They need to be Cut out of the Body, or they will Ultimately be the Cause of Death of everyone.
So, WTF is your problem?
ArmyAviator| 12.13.12 @ 10:45AM
@Jack in Wi:: Your attitude toward the Muslim threat is more or less the same that Europeans had in the 16th century. They weren't much concerned with Islam, until the Muslims approached the Gates of Vienna in 1529 and laid seige upon the city and KILLED TENS OF THOUSANDS. The Muslim armies of the Ottomons had already over-run the Balkans and the ramifications of that mess are still being felt today! Ever heard of Kosovo or Bosnia? Had the Muslims NOT been defeated in 1529, the Ottomon Armies would have invaded Europe proper. So, as terrible as it may seem to us squeemish, "Evil, Western, White guys," the only way to defeat Islam, is to kill enough of their people, that they give-up the fight. Otherwise, they will do the same to us and do it in the Name of ALLAH. As TLP says in his commentary, which you trashed, Osama Bin Laden's group of terrorists would GLADLY have popped-off a NUCLEAR WEAPON, had they have had access to one! Killing 50-million Americans would guarantee a better place in paradise for anyone who could kill that many Infidels on one day. The day will come, when Muslims will want back, that land they lost to Europe as a result of being driven out. Land once held by Islam must ALWAYS be returned to the Muslim fold. That means ALL of the Iberian penninsula and half of France! It's called Dar al-Harb. So, Jack, what happens in the Middle East DOES concern us and it always has.
Stilton A. Cheese| 12.13.12 @ 12:32PM
Quote: Until it's all turned to Glass, there will never be Peace.
I don't understand how listening to Phillip Glass will ever bring peace unless one has his/her finger on the on/off switch
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 6:19PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
Jack in Wi| 12.13.12 @ 7:50AM
I could care who runs Egypt. It is their problem to solve. Lets just cut out all foreign aid to the whole region and let them figure out how to live together without our interference. Why should American taxpayers subsidize all this mess for ever? The whole Middle East is not worth one drop of American blood or one American dollar. The peoples of the Middle East have existed for 6000 years without any help from us. They can get along without it now. We have only worsened our own situation and theirs.
bison cookie| 12.13.12 @ 7:58AM
THE UNITED STATES IS ARMING THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD GOVERNMENT IN EGYPT WITH U.S. TAXPAYER DOLLARS. Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi recently attempted to seize absolute power and impose Sharia Law on the Egyptian people. As a result, massive protests and violence have erupted all across Egypt. And how did the Obama Administration respond? By … READ MORE: http://bwcentral.org/2012/12/t.....r-dollars/
Von Mises Jr| 12.13.12 @ 8:21AM
How would you expect the Obama regime to respond?
If you substitute Obama for Morsi, liberals for the Muslim Brotherhood, and the SEIU and Teacher Union Thugs for the Islamist terror on the streets; we could be talking about Wisconsin or Michigan instead of Alexandria and Cairo.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 6:19PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
Stephie| 12.13.12 @ 8:32AM
Why aren't Americans taking to the streets to protest the reelection of the community organizer/agitator? He showed his true colors again when he got 'em all riled up in MI last week.
C. Vernon Crisler | 12.13.12 @ 8:40AM
Because at least 51 percent of Americans are sleep walking through history.
c. j. acworth| 12.13.12 @ 9:30AM
And 47% got a 'Bamaphone. "Free stuff, Man, my Homie done gimme free stuff!"
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:55PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
ArmyAviator| 12.13.12 @ 3:15PM
We don't take to the streets, because we still have it too good! The coming financial collapse, the internal strife and instability of society WILL put people on the streets; it won't be pretty.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:55PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
Hardcard| 12.13.12 @ 9:51AM
The author writes of morsi and his upper hand, that's the hand he wipes his azz with. Shove it mr. m.morsi.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:55PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
ArmyAviator| 12.13.12 @ 10:25AM
Egypt is a Sunni Muslim country. Accordingly, they are going to have a dictatorship of one kind or the other. Democracy, except in name only, is impossible in this, the world's largest Arab and Sunni Muslin country. The Muslim Brotherhood, far from being "reformers" and "secular," according to SecState Clinton, are ISLAMISTS. Morsi is a strong supporter of a renewed CALIPHATE. The goals of the Muslim Brotherhodd are to 1) re-establish the CALIPHATE and 2) overcome the Infidel world and establish ISLAM as the dominate religion in the world. Islam means FACISM and war. Obama seems okay with both.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:55PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
ArmyAviator| 12.13.12 @ 11:00AM
We will see the rise of a new vast and powerful ISLAMIC EMPIRE. Trillions in petrodollars will fund the new EMPIRE. It will be ruled by a CALIPH who will be Headquartered in Egypt. He may well be a Turk as the last Caliph was a Turk. He was able to unite the Sunnis and the Shi'ites as well as the other sects that exist in Islam. The new Caliph, will be a man who can unite all the various groups of Muslims. The new CALIPHATE will more or less dictate terms to the Infidel nations of Europe, Africa and to a lesser extent, Asia. However, the United States will already be out of the picture, destroyed from within by financial collapse, internal turmoil, maybe even civil war. Regardless, the US will be of no consequence as the Islamic Empire rises to a position of dominance. This is what's coming and our president, Barack Hussein Obama (mmm mmm mmm) will have been instrumental in it's creation. Our national weakness, our reluctance to use the full forces available and our unwillingness to fight wars to achieve VICTORY will defeat us in the end. Americans have no will to win, only to GET what they can GET outa the government. ObamaPhones, Welfare, Food Stamps, WIC, ADC, Title 8 Housing and the leisure time to hang around and smoke dope are more important to the majority of our nation, than defeating those enemies, who would overwhelm us and enslave us as a people. Thank Liberal Socialism, and the GREAT FACILITATER (BO) for the downfall of our once great nation.
cicero| 12.13.12 @ 11:11AM
Sincce we don't want to wage a genocidal war, we have only one course of action. You can forget about a "democratic" middle east. Not going to happen. We have to open the spigots of our own petro resourses, and encourage the rest of the world to do likewise. That will drop the price of oil below what is necessary for these crazies to export their revolution. Next, the rest of the world has to stop selling them weapons. They have no ability to produce any on their own (or anything else for that matter). They will be relegatedd to fighting among themselves for supremacy over their own people. They will shed their own blood every time they want a regime change. But, the current insanity will end in short order.
KennesawJack| 12.13.12 @ 12:38PM
Plus, they need to know that they can abuse their people all they want but the first time they screw with us or Europe, they are toast. That assumes, of course, there still is an "us" and there is a President in office who takes his oath to protect and defend seriously.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 2:38PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
Who Knows?| 12.13.12 @ 2:05PM
What is Egypt?
There is this area of land with manmade boundaries, within which exist tens of millions of humans.
What is the essential characteristic of most of these people?
They have been “well taught” to be devotees of the faux religion named Islam. And, this has PHYSICAL consequences.
All you ever have to know is that RIGHT NOW over 90% of the females have had clitorectomies.
The men are the masters, the women are the slaves, and you can just pity the fools who chose to be born in that society. Maybe the women were “master men” in their previous lives, and vice versa, and need to experience, themselves, what they did to others, in order to WAKE UP.
Lessons are HARD to come by, but even HARDER to get, so human lives need the HARDEST conditions to break through the HARD shell of egoity, no matter what its form or expression.
When all Beings are truly Spirit-in-action, and they assume the opposite, well---come on, y’all, have your genitals carved up, or your minds, or your emotions.
Come one, come ALL!
John786| 12.13.12 @ 2:52PM
Egypt has gone through a revolution;these are always messy affairs. If mursi doesn't put bread on the table, he will be curtains. The opposition wants to shortcut the political process by making noise ( burning brotherhood offices). They should take a leaf from the brotherhood's play book: 100+ years of service to the Egyptian people under tremendous challenges. Then maybe they will gain wider moral authority. There is no shortcut in the struggle for rights. I would urge the opposition to keep their struggle peaceful and protect the Egyptian people from all political & religious excess.