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Special Report
Analyzing Egypt
Mohammed Morsi and the Islamists have the upper hand heading into Saturday’s referendum.
With the upcoming referendum to begin on Saturday in Egypt (already taking place in embassies abroad) for the draft constitution that is primarily the work of Islamists from both the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist factions, it is worth bearing the following issues in mind:
The Military: For all intents and purposes, the Egyptian military is interested in keeping its distance from politics, safeguarding its interests in the country’s economy and maintaining a degree of autonomy from civilian government control.
The recent call for dialogue between President Mohammed Morsi and the opposition by the head of Egypt’s armed forces — Abdul Fatah al-Sissi — which was welcomed by opposition leader Amr Moussa but has led to nothing practical yet, amounts to no more than an urge for calm in the face of rival rallies for and against the upcoming referendum. It does not signal a renewed desire for Egyptian military involvement in politics.
While the military, under former Supreme Council (SCAF) head Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, did wish to contain the Brotherhood, the fact is that the balance of power decisively shifted with Morsi’s election and his dismissal of Tantawi in August, with Sissi being promoted in Tantawi’s place.
It is a mistake to see the military as a bastion of Egyptian secularism at this point. What matters for the military now is that Morsi is not going to interfere with its economic holdings in industry and agriculture; further, as Eric Trager and Robert Satloff note, the draft constitution placates the military with a number of clauses that grant the military oversight over its budget, war policy, the appointment of the Defense Minister, and its own independent judiciary.
Islamist Vigilantes: Besides the desire to keep aloof of politics, the military is also aware — along with the police — of the implications of being associated with the deaths or injuries of rival protesters in the current wave of rallies and counter-rallies.
In the context of this security-force vacuum, Islamist vigilantes are simply filling the gap, with some 140 people being “arrested” by them in clashes last week. Indeed, the Der Spiegel article’s summary point that “eyewitness reports suggest that the police tolerated the attacks” makes perfect sense in light of this development.
Various non-Islamist political figures have also accused street thugs from the Muslim Brotherhood in Alexandria and Cairo. In the case of Alexandria, one should note the belligerent Salafist rhetoric, which may point to Salafist responsibility in particular for violent attacks on political opponents. This is not to say that there has been no violence from the opposition, but the opposition is not setting up its own vigilantes.
The Rescinding of the November 22 Decree: Many commentators have interpreted Morsi’s rescinding of the November 22 constitutional decree that granted him de facto dictatorial powers as a sign of genuine compromise owing to the pressure of opposition protests and violent unrest. Morsi’s move is no such thing.
The decree was designed in the first place to hasten the process of finishing the draft constitution and putting it to referendum, sidelining the judiciary and the non-Islamist opposition in the process, with all actions in the interim between the passing and rescinding of the decree remaining beyond judicial review, together with the new prosecutor general appointed by Morsi keeping his position.
The rescinding of the decree comes in such a way that there is nothing to stop the referendum from going ahead on Saturday — something that is also indicated by an announcement on the part of the State Council’s Administrative Court that it cannot overrule Morsi’s decision and insistence on holding the referendum this Saturday because doing so would infringe on the president’s sovereignty.
The Draft Constitution: The best overview of its Islamist nature is given by this Associated Press report, which notes that “the charter not only makes Muslim clerics the arbiters for many civil rights, it also could give a constitutional basis for citizens to set up Saudi-style ‘religious police’ to monitor morals and enforce segregation of the sexes, imposition of Islamic dress codes and even harsh punishments for adultery and theft — regardless of what laws on the books say.”
Indeed, one Salafist member of the Constituent Assembly, Yasser Borhami, boasted of how the secularists and Christians who had quit the panel over the drafting of the constitution had been persuaded to “allow a number of crucial clauses that solidified Shariah, either because of bargaining or because they didn’t realize the articles’ significance.”
Morsi and Economics: Writing in the Atlantic, Soner Cagaptay aims to portray a contrast between Turkey and emerging Islamist-led governments in the Arab world. In Turkey, Soner claims, “Islamization is taking place within the constraints of pre-existing and institutionalized Westernization,” and one supposed aspect of this phenomenon is “Turkey’s embrace of liberal economics.”
On the contrary, Soner’s view is off-base. Islamist ideology outside a secular and Westernized framework and embracing neo-liberal economic policies are by no means mutually exclusive. Morsi’s proposed tax hikes, which he postponed at the start of this week, as part of a plan to secure an IMF loan fit in very well to a neo-liberal approach in the efforts to rescue Egypt from its economic crisis.
About the Author
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a Shillman-Ginsburg Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University. His website is http://www.aymennjawad.org.
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TLP| 12.13.12 @ 7:46AM
Until it's all turned to Glass, there will never be Peace.
It's gonna need to happen, anyway.
I say: Do it now, before they strike first.
It really is, just that simple.
If they had a Nuke on 911? They would have used it, and EVERYBODY knows it. If they get their hands on a Biological Weapon? They will use it.
Must we always learn the Hard Way?
Jack in Wi| 12.13.12 @ 7:54AM
Your call for mass murder and mass genocide is disgraceful. Lets get the hell out and leave these people alone. They don't need us and we have wasted trillions on the Middle East for no sane reason. It is none of our business and never has been.
Stephie| 12.13.12 @ 8:31AM
I agree with you Jack that we need to leave the middle east. Every last soldier should be brought home. The problem is, obama has inserted himself in helping to remove Mubarik and the Libyan leader to help insert his muslim brotherhood buddies. If the American people can't see what's happening here, there are indeed blind. He is a muslim and has put many muslims in our government. I hold out little hope for our country especially since we don't have a media who will even report the violence happening in MI. The elect the presidents and Hillary is next. The slobbering love affair will begin when barry's term is about up. The man of color will move along and then they can put the first woman in the White House.
We're finished.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:54PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 10:04AM
Hey. I'm just stating the obvious.
We Irradiate Cancers all the time.
They are the living embodiment of a Human Cancer. Wherever they insert themselves, Death is sure to follow. They spread across the land, killing Everyone that isn't like them. Everyone they come in contact with. Like any other Cancer, nobody can Coexist with them. They need to be Cut out of the Body, or they will Ultimately be the Cause of Death of everyone.
So, WTF is your problem?
ArmyAviator| 12.13.12 @ 10:45AM
@Jack in Wi:: Your attitude toward the Muslim threat is more or less the same that Europeans had in the 16th century. They weren't much concerned with Islam, until the Muslims approached the Gates of Vienna in 1529 and laid seige upon the city and KILLED TENS OF THOUSANDS. The Muslim armies of the Ottomons had already over-run the Balkans and the ramifications of that mess are still being felt today! Ever heard of Kosovo or Bosnia? Had the Muslims NOT been defeated in 1529, the Ottomon Armies would have invaded Europe proper. So, as terrible as it may seem to us squeemish, "Evil, Western, White guys," the only way to defeat Islam, is to kill enough of their people, that they give-up the fight. Otherwise, they will do the same to us and do it in the Name of ALLAH. As TLP says in his commentary, which you trashed, Osama Bin Laden's group of terrorists would GLADLY have popped-off a NUCLEAR WEAPON, had they have had access to one! Killing 50-million Americans would guarantee a better place in paradise for anyone who could kill that many Infidels on one day. The day will come, when Muslims will want back, that land they lost to Europe as a result of being driven out. Land once held by Islam must ALWAYS be returned to the Muslim fold. That means ALL of the Iberian penninsula and half of France! It's called Dar al-Harb. So, Jack, what happens in the Middle East DOES concern us and it always has.
Stilton A. Cheese| 12.13.12 @ 12:32PM
Quote: Until it's all turned to Glass, there will never be Peace.
I don't understand how listening to Phillip Glass will ever bring peace unless one has his/her finger on the on/off switch
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 6:19PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
Jack in Wi| 12.13.12 @ 7:50AM
I could care who runs Egypt. It is their problem to solve. Lets just cut out all foreign aid to the whole region and let them figure out how to live together without our interference. Why should American taxpayers subsidize all this mess for ever? The whole Middle East is not worth one drop of American blood or one American dollar. The peoples of the Middle East have existed for 6000 years without any help from us. They can get along without it now. We have only worsened our own situation and theirs.
bison cookie| 12.13.12 @ 7:58AM
THE UNITED STATES IS ARMING THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD GOVERNMENT IN EGYPT WITH U.S. TAXPAYER DOLLARS. Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi recently attempted to seize absolute power and impose Sharia Law on the Egyptian people. As a result, massive protests and violence have erupted all across Egypt. And how did the Obama Administration respond? By … READ MORE: http://bwcentral.org/2012/12/t.....r-dollars/
Von Mises Jr| 12.13.12 @ 8:21AM
How would you expect the Obama regime to respond?
If you substitute Obama for Morsi, liberals for the Muslim Brotherhood, and the SEIU and Teacher Union Thugs for the Islamist terror on the streets; we could be talking about Wisconsin or Michigan instead of Alexandria and Cairo.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 6:19PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
Stephie| 12.13.12 @ 8:32AM
Why aren't Americans taking to the streets to protest the reelection of the community organizer/agitator? He showed his true colors again when he got 'em all riled up in MI last week.
C. Vernon Crisler | 12.13.12 @ 8:40AM
Because at least 51 percent of Americans are sleep walking through history.
c. j. acworth| 12.13.12 @ 9:30AM
And 47% got a 'Bamaphone. "Free stuff, Man, my Homie done gimme free stuff!"
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:55PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
ArmyAviator| 12.13.12 @ 3:15PM
We don't take to the streets, because we still have it too good! The coming financial collapse, the internal strife and instability of society WILL put people on the streets; it won't be pretty.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:55PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
Hardcard| 12.13.12 @ 9:51AM
The author writes of morsi and his upper hand, that's the hand he wipes his azz with. Shove it mr. m.morsi.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:55PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
ArmyAviator| 12.13.12 @ 10:25AM
Egypt is a Sunni Muslim country. Accordingly, they are going to have a dictatorship of one kind or the other. Democracy, except in name only, is impossible in this, the world's largest Arab and Sunni Muslin country. The Muslim Brotherhood, far from being "reformers" and "secular," according to SecState Clinton, are ISLAMISTS. Morsi is a strong supporter of a renewed CALIPHATE. The goals of the Muslim Brotherhodd are to 1) re-establish the CALIPHATE and 2) overcome the Infidel world and establish ISLAM as the dominate religion in the world. Islam means FACISM and war. Obama seems okay with both.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 3:55PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
ArmyAviator| 12.13.12 @ 11:00AM
We will see the rise of a new vast and powerful ISLAMIC EMPIRE. Trillions in petrodollars will fund the new EMPIRE. It will be ruled by a CALIPH who will be Headquartered in Egypt. He may well be a Turk as the last Caliph was a Turk. He was able to unite the Sunnis and the Shi'ites as well as the other sects that exist in Islam. The new Caliph, will be a man who can unite all the various groups of Muslims. The new CALIPHATE will more or less dictate terms to the Infidel nations of Europe, Africa and to a lesser extent, Asia. However, the United States will already be out of the picture, destroyed from within by financial collapse, internal turmoil, maybe even civil war. Regardless, the US will be of no consequence as the Islamic Empire rises to a position of dominance. This is what's coming and our president, Barack Hussein Obama (mmm mmm mmm) will have been instrumental in it's creation. Our national weakness, our reluctance to use the full forces available and our unwillingness to fight wars to achieve VICTORY will defeat us in the end. Americans have no will to win, only to GET what they can GET outa the government. ObamaPhones, Welfare, Food Stamps, WIC, ADC, Title 8 Housing and the leisure time to hang around and smoke dope are more important to the majority of our nation, than defeating those enemies, who would overwhelm us and enslave us as a people. Thank Liberal Socialism, and the GREAT FACILITATER (BO) for the downfall of our once great nation.
cicero| 12.13.12 @ 11:11AM
Sincce we don't want to wage a genocidal war, we have only one course of action. You can forget about a "democratic" middle east. Not going to happen. We have to open the spigots of our own petro resourses, and encourage the rest of the world to do likewise. That will drop the price of oil below what is necessary for these crazies to export their revolution. Next, the rest of the world has to stop selling them weapons. They have no ability to produce any on their own (or anything else for that matter). They will be relegatedd to fighting among themselves for supremacy over their own people. They will shed their own blood every time they want a regime change. But, the current insanity will end in short order.
KennesawJack| 12.13.12 @ 12:38PM
Plus, they need to know that they can abuse their people all they want but the first time they screw with us or Europe, they are toast. That assumes, of course, there still is an "us" and there is a President in office who takes his oath to protect and defend seriously.
TLP| 12.13.12 @ 2:38PM
Contest at Tuesday's Story: More Pants Than Fire.
Look for Pinnochio.
Who Knows?| 12.13.12 @ 2:05PM
What is Egypt?
There is this area of land with manmade boundaries, within which exist tens of millions of humans.
What is the essential characteristic of most of these people?
They have been “well taught” to be devotees of the faux religion named Islam. And, this has PHYSICAL consequences.
All you ever have to know is that RIGHT NOW over 90% of the females have had clitorectomies.
The men are the masters, the women are the slaves, and you can just pity the fools who chose to be born in that society. Maybe the women were “master men” in their previous lives, and vice versa, and need to experience, themselves, what they did to others, in order to WAKE UP.
Lessons are HARD to come by, but even HARDER to get, so human lives need the HARDEST conditions to break through the HARD shell of egoity, no matter what its form or expression.
When all Beings are truly Spirit-in-action, and they assume the opposite, well---come on, y’all, have your genitals carved up, or your minds, or your emotions.
Come one, come ALL!
John786| 12.13.12 @ 2:52PM
Egypt has gone through a revolution;these are always messy affairs. If mursi doesn't put bread on the table, he will be curtains. The opposition wants to shortcut the political process by making noise ( burning brotherhood offices). They should take a leaf from the brotherhood's play book: 100+ years of service to the Egyptian people under tremendous challenges. Then maybe they will gain wider moral authority. There is no shortcut in the struggle for rights. I would urge the opposition to keep their struggle peaceful and protect the Egyptian people from all political & religious excess.