According to Jeh Johnson, General Counsel, Dept. of Defense,
“the core of al Qaeda is today degraded, disorganized and on the
run.” This purposeful statement
was made at the Oxford Union debating society on November 30. The
groundwork was thus laid for the Obama Administration to declare
victory in the war against terrorism. According to Mr. Johnson and
his superiors, al Qaeda no longer has a functional existence. This
is justification, says Mr. Johnson, for replacing past military
conflict by “a counter-terrorism effort against individuals” by law
enforcement and intelligence.
The purpose of this effort to diminish the importance of al
Qaeda is to make it appear that the Obama government has been
successful in reducing the capabilities of the once all-powerful
organization of Osama bin Laden. It is as if organized crime had
been totally destroyed by Obama-led forces and the only thing left
is for individual criminals to be hunted down by local and state
police, with a little help from the FBI.
The original al Qaeda structure no longer exists, but the
movement that Osama bin Laden is credited with creating continues
an effective underground operation that links disparate groups
/franchises — some small, some large — who share a drive to
assume power in their regions. What does exist of the original
organization has a generalized command role similar to general
staff structure that gives overall guidance but leaves operations
up to divisional commanders. This system provides for a modicum of
coordination where appropriate while still maintaining
compartmented security.
According to press reports, Ayman al Zawahiri, having assumed
the leadership after bin Laden’s death, has now located his
administrative headquarters in his homeland of Egypt. There is no
way to confirm this, but his younger brother, Mohammed al Zawahiri
, a member of al-Jihad militant group, was reported by Al
Arabiya as active in the September 11th demonstrations at the
U.S. Embassy in Cairo. If true, this would have been an individual
choice rather than connected to any operational commitment of AQ
Central. At this current stage of al Qaeda’s operational activity
it appears that liaison is maintained by Ayman al Zawahiri and his
immediate entourage with the various al Qaeda franchises providing
specialized technical assistance — such as unique bomb
construction, special cover documentation and, most importantly,
financial aid, a key factor in AQ Central’s continued leverage.
Not much is reported on the relationship of al Qaeda and the top
echelon of the Muslim Brotherhood, but it is obvious that some
discreet form of liaison exists for AQ to maintain a presence in
Egypt. An al Qaeda headquarters in Cairo, a city of approximately 9
million people and a major commercial and banking center, is a
valuable site for international coordination of activity — if
there needs to be any. Moammar Gaddafi used Cairo and Alexandria as
main contact points for Libyan operations throughout Africa and the
Middle East. Al Qaeda undoubtedly would find similar sites equally
advantageous these days, as would other Islamist groups.
Al Qaeda-associated groups share a Sunni religious alignment.
This fact has become quite stark as the Sunni/Shia rivalry has been
played out in Syria’s civil war and Syrian Sunnis have been aided
with trained personnel from al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). Syrian Sunnis,
however, are not necessarily al Qaeda followers, even though
accepting of their assistance. The problem that develops
nonetheless is that a “blood debt” is accrued between the resident
Syrian Sunni fighters and the al Qaeda-associated volunteers who
have arrived from Iraq and elsewhere to assist them. It can be
envisioned that this alliance will have a post-war impact that
could enable local Syrian affiliates of al Qaeda to acquire a major
new protected base of operations.
Over a year ago information surfaced that British intelligence
(presumably Secret Intelligence Service, MI6) had been in contact
with an organization called the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group
(LIFG) since the 1990s. Based in Benghazi and Derna, the
anti-Gaddafi group provided volunteers for al Qaeda in Afghanistan
and later cadre in Iraq. Many of these original Libyan al Qaeda
enlistees have risen to top ranks in the terrorist organization and
as such have become prime targets of anti-insurgent operations
throughout the Middle East. The question now exists as to the
extent of LIFG —veterans’ involvement in the attack on the US
mission in Benghazi. It is clear, however, that a contemporary
Libyan contingent with longtime connections to al Qaeda represents
a dangerous international addition to global terrorism.
Having assumed from the Yemeni jihadi group the name “Ansar al
Sharia,” a collection of North Africans — many with former LIFG
connections — has carved out a share of the terrorist
organizational pie. So far they have remained independent of Al
Qaeda in Maghreb (AQIM) though there are indications the latter
wants to amalgamate with the Libyan version of Ansar al Sharia.
There is a broader “tug of war” going on that includes
consideration of exactly how much coordination of operation will
exist in the future among the various al Qaeda-associated
groupings.
In short, a very extensive and complicated structure still
revolves around an al Qaeda connection. As much as Mr. Jeh Johnson
and the Obama Administration would like it to be, there really is
little sign that bin Laden’s heirs have “gone to the mattresses,”
as their Mafia film cousins were wont to do. This is real life
terrorism and the people who are in that business do not operate in
the world of make-believe — in spite of the White House’s
self-serving, vivid imagination.
