The conservative comeback begins now — on the assumption that a majority of Americans will not welcome a second Great Depression.
(Page 2 of 3)
The Second Shoe Drops
The second shoe to drop will be the budget proposal of House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, which will come a month later, and will be adopted by the full House. That budget will propose to maintain the long-term historical average of federal spending at 20 percent of GDP, under which America prospered as the mightiest economic engine in world history. It would eliminate most of the deficit after just a few years. As CBO’s long-term projections will show, the national debt as a percentage of GDP would stabilize, and then begin a long-term decline, avoiding the Greek tragedy.
That would be accomplished, moreover, without a single American suffering. Ryan’s pro-growth, modernizing, entitlement reforms would be better for the poor and seniors than the current, old-fashioned, outdated, tax and redistribution entitlement programs, and all of their perverse incentives, that end up hurting the poor and seniors. Find me a single American who would be a living example to the contrary.
At the same time, the Ryan budget will propose individual and corporate tax reform with sharply lower tax rates for everyone. The difference will be made up by closing tax loopholes, even without counting the resulting boost to economic growth. That economic growth would produce more tax revenue on net, which would eliminate the deficit entirely within a few years. In fact, in a thriving, grown up, completely honest country, these tax reform proposals would be scored on a dynamic basis, which would allow for even lower tax rates, producing even more booming economic growth.
As Ryan has proposed in the past, these reforms would include a 10 percent income tax rate for families earning less than $100,000 a year, and a 25 percent rate for families earning more. It would reduce the federal corporate income tax rate to 25 percent, close to the global average top marginal corporate rate. These will be wildly popular proposals.
You might say this will all make no difference. The exact same has happened each of the last two years, and it made no difference to the American people. No one noticed.
That was the fault not only of the Romney campaign, or of the Republican Party. It was the fault of the conservative movement more generally. Why did that movement not rise up, drive home the truth to the American people, and hold Obama and his Democrats accountable? We have been ringing those alarm bells right here in this column for two years. But not only has the Democrat party-controlled media failed to take notice. Most of the conservative movement has as well.
But this time more shoes will drop, shoes of reality that will do the job the conservative movement failed to do, and that Obama and his neo-Marxist Democrats will not be able to evade.
Do Not Ask for Whom the Bell Tolls
First, the Republicans themselves will get more feisty, I kid you not. A month or two after the Ryan budget goes public, House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp (R-MI) will have the proposed tax reforms written in legislation, scored, and introduced. His Committee will vote the proposals out to the House floor soon after that. The House will pass them.
That will demonstrate the falsehoods that have been told alleging that these Republican tax reforms “do not add up.” When that happens, conservative media, the Tea Party, and grassroots conservatives should start calling for those fake “journalists” and misleading “commentators” in the Democrat party-controlled media to resign.
Of course, Harry Reid’s Senate will ignore the House passed tax reforms, just as it will Ryan’s House-passed budget. Indeed, the Senate will continue to break the law, by failing to pass any budget at all, or even to try. This is where House Speaker John Boehner can man up, by literally suing Harry Reid for failing to obey the 1974 Budget Act, which the then Democrat-controlled Congress enacted. Indeed, Boehner, who is just about the only person who would have standing to sue, should file a class action on behalf of the American people. The case of John Boehner and the American People v. Harry Reid can ask the court to enjoin payment of all Senate salaries until the Senate complies with the law. Win or lose, the case would dramatize and drive home the point to the American people.
But that is only the beginning of the Greek tragedy that will rapidly unfold, and engulf the Obama Administration and the Democrat party. About that time America will begin to miss the Bush tax cuts, really really bad. In his hubris, Obama will maintain his non-negotiation ploy of my way or the highway over the extension of the Bush tax cuts, and the fiscal cliff, with sweeping tax rate increases for the nation’s job creators, investors, and successful small businesses, and no specific, proposed spending cuts at all. The Republicans will not take the bait, and the Bush tax cuts will expire in their entirety.
That is when the American people will recognize that Bush cut taxes for all taxpayers, including the middle class and working people, contrary to Democrat and liberal mythology propagated at such wildly overrated media institutions as the New York Times and the Washington Post. Obama and his controlled media bloodhounds will say that the resulting tax increases on the middle class are the Republicans’ fault for refusing to go along with Obama’s Marxist tax policy. But even the Republicans and the conservative movement will not be able to screw this one up. For even they will be able to retort that the Bush tax cuts were Republican tax policy enacted into law by Republicans, and it took Obama and his new Marxist Democrat party to let them expire.
The Democrat Depression
Even worse for Obama and the Democrats is what the reality of life will be like without the Bush tax cuts. All those soaring rate increases, along with Obama’s abusive regulatory policies, soaring federal spending, deficits, and debt, and the Fed’s continued mischief, will definitely drive the economy back into recession next year. So far, the Democrats’ Marxist Obamanomics has produced the worst economic recovery from a recession since the Great Depression. But for the economy to go back into recession before there has been any real recovery from the last one now four years ago will be widely recognized as the Depression 2.0.
During the Depression decade, the recovery from the first downturn was better than the recovery America has suffered under Obamanomics. But the renewed recession so soon after the first one drove unemployment back up, and wages and incomes down still further, and put the Great into the Great Depression, in the words of Amity Shlaes.
And that is what next year will bring with renewed, double-dip, recession. Unemployment will soar back into double digits, above even the prior post-Depression peak of 10.8 percent. The deficit will break new world records, soaring past $2 trillion. The national debt will spiral further out of control, bringing the lifestyle of Greece to America. Poverty will set new post-Depression records. Wages and incomes for the middle class and working people will plummet further.
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?