To quote ABC’s
Wide World of Sports, in the space of less than three
years, Scott Brown has experienced “the thrill of victory and the
agony of defeat.” In January 2010, the Massachusetts Republican
scored the upset of the century by winning “the people’s seat” in a
special Senate election. However, last month, Brown lost by eight
points to Elizabeth Warren as she regained “Ted Kennedy’s
seat.”
But if Slim
Pickens were still alive he might very well ask, “What in the
wide, wide world of sports is going on here?” After all, Brown
might not be down and out for long. Should President Obama appoint
Massachusetts’ senior Senator John Kerry to his cabinet (be it his
Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense), there will be yet
another special Senate election in 2013. Given Brown’s name
recognition and resources, he would be hard pressed not to make
another bid for the Senate.
But Democrats wanting to avoid another 2010 would likely put up
a heavyweight against Brown as they did with Warren this year.
Current Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick would fit that bill.
If Brown were to lose to Patrick that would all but stop his
political career dead in its tracks. Of course, even if Brown
somehow pulled off another miracle in 2013, he would have to run
again in the 2014 election when Kerry’s current term ends. Four
Senate elections in five years might be a bit much. In the grand
scheme of things, it would probably be more viable for Brown to
recharge his batteries and return to familiar terrain on Beacon
Hill rather than Capitol Hill and seek the corner office in
2014.
To begin with, Governor Patrick indicated shortly after his
re-election in 2010 that he would not seek a third term. At the
moment, Lieutenant-Governor Tim Murray, a former mayor of Worcester
(Massachusetts’ second largest city), is the odds-on favorite to
become the Democratic Party’s standard bearer. But Patrick is going
to be a hard act to follow. Murray lacks Patrick’s charisma and
dramatic life story. When Patrick was elected Governor in 2006, he
became only the second African American to attain such an office
since Reconstruction (Douglas Wilder was the first in Virginia back
in 1989). Patrick is often likened to President Obama and indeed
David Axelrod was involved in Patrick’s 2006 campaign.
All of this to say a Brown vs. Murray match up could work in
Brown’s favor. Brown has more name recognition and it remains to be
seen if the Democratic base that was so enthusiastic for Patrick
and Warren would make the same effort for Murray.
While it is true that Massachusetts is a deeply entrenched blue
state, it must be remembered that Bay State voters have shown a
willingness to elect Republican Governors. In four successive
elections between 1990 and 2002, voters sent Bill Weld (twice),
Paul Cellucci, and Mitt Romney to the corner office.
Naturally, one could argue that if Brown could be elected to the
Senate once, he could get elected again. But there were a unique
set of circumstances and conditions in the 2010 special election
which are unlikely to replicate themselves ever again. First, the
debate over Obamacare was at its peak and the Tea Party was nearing
its zenith. Despite his credentials as a moderate, Brown was viewed
as the only thing stopping Obamacare as a 41st GOP Senator would
prevent a Democratic filibuster proof majority. Remember when Brown
would include 41 in his
autograph? Second, the Democrats fielded an incredibly weak
candidate in Martha Coakley, who didn’t want to
stand in the cold outside Fenway Park to shake hands with
Massachusetts voters and considered Red Sox
legend Curt Schilling “another Yankee fan.” Bay State Democrats
won’t make that mistake again.
The point here is that the stars had to align perfectly in order
for Brown to be elected to the Senate and those stars are not
likely to align in such a way ever again. Brown does not face such
astronomical odds in a gubernatorial race.
Of course, all of this assumes that President Obama will appoint
John Kerry to his cabinet in the first place. Let’s suppose Obama
sees fit not to pluck Kerry from the Senate. If you’re Scott Brown
in 2014 do you run for the Senate against Kerry? Hell, no. It would
be 1996 all over again between Kerry and Weld. But suppose Kerry
decides not to seek a sixth term. Brown would have to ask himself
if he’d rather run against Patrick for the Senate or against Murray
for Governor. I think Brown will conclude that he is better off
staying in Massachusetts.
