Some media pundits see in the growing proportion of non-white
groups in the population a growing opposition to the Republican
Party that will sooner or later make it virtually impossible for
Republicans to win presidential elections or even to control either
house of Congress. But is demography destiny?
Conventional wisdom in the Republican establishment is that what
the GOP needs to do, in order to win black votes or Hispanic votes,
is to craft policies specifically targeting these groups. In other
words, Republicans need to become more like Democrats.
Whether in a racial context or in other contexts, the supposed
need for Republicans to become more like Democrats has long been a
recurring theme of the moderate Republican establishment, going
back more than half a century.
Yet the most successful Republican presidential candidate during
that long period was a man who went completely counter to that
conventional wisdom — namely, Ronald Reagan, who won back to back
landslide election victories.
Meanwhile, moderate Republican presidential candidate after
moderate Republican presidential candidate has gone down to defeat,
even against Democratic presidential candidates who were unpopular
(Harry Truman), previously unknown (Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton) or
who had a terrible economic track record (Barack Obama).
None of this seems to have caused any second thoughts in the
Republican establishment. So long as that remains the case,
demography may indeed be destiny — and that destiny could be
Democratic administrations as far out as the eye can see.
If non-white voters can only be gotten by pandering to them with
goodies earmarked for them, then Republicans are doomed, even if
they choose to go that route. Why should anyone who wants racially
earmarked goodies vote for Republicans, when the Democrats already
have a track record of delivering such goodies?
An alternative way to make inroads into the overwhelming
majority of minority votes for Democrats would be for the
Republicans to articulate a coherent case for their principles and
the benefits that those principles offer to all Americans.
But the Republicans’ greatest failure has been precisely their
chronic failure to spell out their principles — and the track
record of those principles — to either white or non-white
voters.
Very few people know, for example, that the gap between black
and white incomes narrowed during the Reagan administration and
widened during the Obama administration. This was not because of
Republican policies designed specifically for blacks, but because
free market policies create an economy in which all people can
improve their economic situation.
Conversely, few policies have had such a devastating effect on
the job opportunities of minority youths as minimum wage laws,
which are usually pushed by Democrats and opposed by Republicans.
But these facts do not “speak for themselves.” Somebody has to cite
the facts and take the trouble to show why unemployment among
minority youths skyrocketed when minimum wage increases priced them
out of jobs.
The loss of income from an entry-level job is only part of the
loss sustained by minority young people. Work experience at even an
entry-level job is a valuable asset, as a stepping stone to
progressively higher level jobs. Moreover, nobody gains from having
a huge number of idle youths hanging out on the streets, least of
all minority communities.
Labor unions push minimum wage laws to insulate their members
from the competition of younger workers, and Democratic politicians
are heavily dependent on union support. For the same reason,
Democrats have to go along with teachers’ unions that treat schools
as places to guarantee their members jobs, rather than to provide
the quality education so much needed to rise out of poverty.
What Democrats cannot say under these conditions is what
Republicans are free to say — even if Republicans have seldom
taken advantage of that freedom to make inroads into minority
voting blocs. Inroads are all they need. If the black vote for
Democrats falls to 70 percent, the Democrats are in deep
trouble.
But if Republicans continue inarticulate, then it is they who
are in big trouble. More important, so is the country..
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