“REAL Unemployment is 15 percent. FIRE OBAMA.”
So says a giant billboard along the Pennsylvania Turnpike
heading north from Breezewood through Somerset.
As I drive a few miles more, there’s another billboard, this one
with a guy with a gasoline nozzle in his ear. It declares, “Vote
Change, Vote No-Obama.”
As I continue upward through this natural gas and coal country,
I see more and more signs, erected in farmer’s fields, taped to
cars. I pass a minivan with writing on the back windshield: “$4.00
per gallon gasoline? Are you kidding me?!”
As I go further through Western Pennsylvania, into the small
towns north of Pittsburgh, I see Romney/Ryan signs absolutely
everywhere, dwarfing the number of Obama/Biden signs — and far
exceeding the depressing ratio of McCain vs. Obama signs four years
ago. I even see Romney/Ryan signs placed next to empty chairs,
evoking the Clint Eastwood image of our president. And where I
don’t see a Romney/Ryan sign, I observe a “Preserve Freedom: Fire
Obama” placard, or another that says “Are You Better Off Now Than
Four Years Ago?”
What I’m trying to say is that I’m seeing in Pennsylvania a
pro-Romney, pro-Republican, anti-Obama enthusiasm that is downright
remarkable. And when I don’t see it, I hear about it. And it isn’t
confined to western Pennsylvania, which is far more conservative
than eastern Pennsylvania. A Romney rally at Bucks County over the
weekend drew tens of thousands, with some projections over 30,000.
Understand that eastern Pennsylvania is completely different from
the western part of the state. It’s more like New Jersey, both in
proximity and politics. Even there, however, Romney’s support is
very strong.
Am I arguing that Mitt Romney will win Pennsylvania this
November 6, 2012? Yes, I believe he will.
For the record, I’m hardly an optimist. Every four years my
hopes for Pennsylvania and the presidential race are raised and
rudely squashed. I’ve learned never to be positive about this
state. It’s because of Philadelphia, which ruins this state’s
politics. It isn’t Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is an old-time Democrat
stronghold, but Pittsburgh’s Democrats are blue collar and tend to
be socially conservative — they’re about God and guns. They are
pro-life, churchgoing, and certainly not gay-marriage advocates.
Their favorite pastime is shooting deer and watching the Steelers.
(I’m with them on that, by the way.) It’s their union that keeps
them voting Democrat — but not all of them.
The hardcore liberal element in this state is southeast in the
Philadelphia area. Once you move away from Philadelphia, heading
north and west, Pennsylvania is redder than red. The rest of the
state needs to vote overwhelmingly Republican to offset the massive
Democratic vote in Philadelphia. And this time, for the first time
in over 20 years, I picture that happening.
There are other factors and indicators. I know Tea Party people
in western Pennsylvania who are sick and tired of being called
racists merely for disagreeing with Obama’s fiscal madness; they
realize the only way to change that is to defeat Obama. They are
mobilizing. They are organized and eager. They are quietly pushing
hard.
Another factor is Tom Smith, the Republican nominee for the
Pennsylvania Senate, who is challenging the incumbent Democrat, Bob
Casey, Jr. Two months ago, I would have bet my house against Tom
Smith. There was no way he had even a remote chance. The latest
polls, however, show Smith with an excellent chance to win Casey’s
seat.
Finally, this is a state with a Republican senator, Pat Toomey,
with a Republican governor and legislature (both houses), and with
Republicans holding a majority of congressional districts. It is
the only staunchly pro-life state in the northeast. It is
religious, with large numbers of evangelicals and Catholics. This
is not a liberal state. George W. Bush lost it narrowly in 2004.
Obama won it handily in 2008; he will not win it this Tuesday.
