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The Obama Watch
Election 2012
A dark forecast, with a guide to spotting rays of sunshine.
(Page 2 of 2)
Florida. In the Senate race, Republican Connie Mack was briefly ahead of incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in the summer, but Nelson retook the lead in mid-August and has held it since; he will likely be reelected (Dem. hold). In the presidential race, Romney has led in public polling averages for the past month; some Republicans looking at internal polls sound surprisingly nervous behind the scenes, but I suspect Florida will stay red even if it’s a closer shave than some of us were expecting (R+29). If I’m wrong: If Obama has Florida, he’s winning by a fairly comfortable margin.
About those internal polls, by the way: Because campaigns (and party committees and outside groups) will spend more money on polling than media outlets will — allowing pollsters to do things like target a particular geographical balance in a sample — the average internal poll is more accurate than the average public poll. But the average internal poll usually isn’t the one we see. Campaigns leak numbers that send the message they want to send, not numbers that accurately reflect the aggregate of the data they have access to, so internal polling released to the public is significantly less accurate than public polling. Yesterday Toby Harnden of the Daily Mail got an exclusive look at some internal polls that look very favorable to Romney — but there’s a very good chance that those numbers are outliers. I haven’t been shown any internal polls, but I have had informal conversations with people who have access to them; paradoxically, this is probably more informative than seeing the actual numbers (unless you’re seeing them every day). Those conversations influence some of my predictions.
New Hampshire. This one’s very, very close, but Obama has a slight lead in public polls, and GOP insiders with access to internal polling are pessimistic, so I’m calling it for Obama (O+4). If I’m wrong: New Hampshire can swing the election one way or another if, for example, Romney wins Virginia and Ohio but loses the states west of Lake Michigan that Obama won in 2008. That doesn’t align with my predictions, but it’s not a crazy scenario, either.
9:00 pm — Polls close in thirteen states. Among them are Arizona, where retiring Republican Senator Jon Kyl looks set to be replaced by Jeff Flake (Rep. hold), and Nebraska, where retiring moderate Democratic Senator Ben Nelson looks set to be replaced by Republican Deb Fischer (Rep. gain).
Polls also close in Michigan and Minnesota. The presidential race has at times looked close in these states, but not close enough to flip them; both will stay blue (O+16, O+10) Minnesota has really only been part of the race because its media markets overlap with parts of Wisconsin. And Wisconsin really is in play.
In fact, Republicans who’ve seen internal polling actually seem to feel better about Wisconsin than they do about Ohio, which isn’t what you’d guess from the public polls showing Ohio as the tighter race. I think Obama will probably hang on in the Badger State (O+10), but it isn’t certain. Tammy Baldwin beating Tommy Thompson in the Senate race is probably a somewhat safer bet (Dem. hold). If I’m wrong: As mentioned above, if Romney can win Virginia, he has a path to victory that goes through Ohio, and one that goes around Ohio; the latter path requires winning Wisconsin. As you might have heard once or twice or eighty times this year, no Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Romney were the first to manage it. Romney winning Wisconsin’s electoral votes could come in tandem with a Thompson upset in the Senate race, so watch the returns in both races.
Colorado is a coin flip. I say it comes up Romney (R+9). If I’m wrong: The path to victory for Romney that includes Virginia and Wisconsin but not Ohio does not work without Colorado.
10:00 pm — Polls close in Utah (which we’ve already covered), Montana, Nevada, and Iowa.
In Montana, Republican Danny Rehberg has already been elected statewide — he’s the at-large Representative — which makes him a formidable challenger to incumbent Senator Jon Tester. I think Rehberg wins (Rep. gain). In Nevada, Republican Dean Heller probably wins the Senate race (Rep. hold), but the Silver State stays blue at the presidential level; even the rosy internals leaked to the Daily Mail concede that Obama wins Nevada (O+6).
In Iowa, Obama underperformed his polls in 2008; the RealClearPolitics average had him up by 15.3, but he only won by 9.5. The RCP average currently shows Obama up 2.4. I think Romney pulls it off (R+6). If I’m wrong: As with Colorado, the scenario where Romney wins without Ohio does not work without Iowa.
11:00 pm — Polls close in North Dakota, where Republican Rick Berg looks poised to replace retiring Democratic Senator Kent Conrad (Rep. gain).
In the Senate, that comes out to a net gain of one seat for Republicans, yielding a 52-seat Democratic majority (counting Democratic-caucusing independents). In the presidential race, it comes out to 288 electoral votes for Obama and 250 electoral votes for Romney.
One last thing: It’s very likely that Romney narrowly wins the popular vote, especially if I’ve got a state or two wrong in the electoral vote forecast.
About the Author
John Tabin is a frequent contributor to The American Spectator online.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (67) | Leave a comment
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Jack in Wi| 11.6.12 @ 9:00AM
This estimate seems to be pretty straght forward with no BS. If true, the Republicans have blown a great opportunity. If this is true lets hope this is the last of the Bush Rove Republican party. If we are going to lose lets at least lose on real principles., not a lot of pablum and me tooism. I hope John is wrong. because I can't stand the thought of another 4 years of Barack. Even though I have never been that favorable toward Romney, I am voting for him.
Anthony| 11.6.12 @ 9:07AM
Well Jack, finally, your're doing the right thing. If perfection is what your're looking for, it will have to wait for the next life.
Meantime, vote as if you're life depends upon it NOW, cuz it does!!!
TLP| 11.6.12 @ 4:56PM
Just because this Ugly Guy - Tabin - says it, doesn't make it so.
I really don't think that most people realize just how many Americans hate this Muslim MFer for Fckng Them Over.
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 8:15PM
OK---Virginia is going 14 points to Romney with 11% in.
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 8:19PM
Florida also is going by 3 points to Romney---Huffington Post. 23% of the vote in.
Now, let's see how PA goes---if it goes for Romney, Ohio is meaningless as the game is over, Rover.
KJ--VA is going strongly Romney.
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 8:25PM
Romney WINS Maine! That was unexpected!
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 8:31PM
That essentially counters NH vote; it can only go well for Romney now.
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 8:34PM
Let me recheck Maine. Huffington Post announced it; they are being fairly good on the count. Besides, any Romney victory is sure to be accurate on HP.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 9:59PM
What are you smoking Occam? Obama carried Maine. Democrats on track to hold the Senate - Elizabeth Warren won, Democrats picked up the Indiana and Florida seats. Ohio looking solid for Obama, Michigan already in his pocket, and Florida looking really good for Obama - most of the votes left to count are in Miami-Dade and Browars, both heavily Democratic.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 10:11PM
Obama ahead in Florida, and the votes left to be counted are in Miami-Dade and Broward, bothe heavily Democratic.
In Virginia, most of the uncounted votes are in heavily Democratic Norther Virginia.
Pennsylvania already in Obama's column, and ahead now in Ohio and Colorado.
Not looking good for your guys, Occam.
KennesawJack| 11.6.12 @ 9:07AM
John, I'm sure you're going to hear this a lot today, but I think you have NH, VA, and WI wrong. From my keyboad to God's eyes!
TLP| 11.6.12 @ 4:58PM
Look at him!
He's very Ugly.
I have zero confidence in his assumptions.
Because he's so Ugly.
That's as good a reason as any, right?
Am I being too superficial?
fmm| 11.6.12 @ 9:50AM
This is righ tin line with RCP averages and the trrends showing Obama gains in the past week. My bet is dems hold POTUS and senate. Hopefully the house will grow some balls.
fmm| 11.6.12 @ 9:50AM
Gah - typos ftl
crushrail| 11.6.12 @ 10:34AM
Your mom sucks ball you diseased libtard piece of trash. RCP has all the outlier polls you r-tard.
hook| 11.6.12 @ 1:04PM
Crush, you give every conservative a bad name by such absurd drivel. Obviously Mr. Tabin is conservative and he is simply trying to be objective. People like you also frequently are cowards...bet you are.
Simon Templar| 11.6.12 @ 2:25PM
Oh, is he? Objective and conservative? Perhaps he thinks he is conservative but he is not being objective, he believing these stacked corrupted poll like an unthinking idiot. Does anyone actually believe there is going to be a D+11 or D+8 turnout?
More than 2008?
Model is not correct.
Hey, I do not want to believe anything or anybody I just want the truth and deal with it.
It does not take a genius to see that any of these polls should be trusted. Gee, liberals must have very 'bad names' as they talk like this every minute and second of the day...try outing yourself in Hollywood. You have a fraud for president calling for revenge! Get lost troll.
hook| 11.6.12 @ 4:13PM
So Romney is going to win. Sadly that is not what polls, HS student polls, and other indicators show.
SHOULD he win, of course not and Simon, do I know you?
TLP| 11.6.12 @ 5:00PM
HS student polls?
Seriously, Idiot?
hook| 11.6.12 @ 11:07PM
TLP..you are an unsophisticated moronic idiot. HS polls simply reflect what parents are saying and Obama will be re-elected, won't he? You retard.
crushrail| 11.6.12 @ 10:36AM
"I've been hearing troubling things about the quality of the GOP ground game in Virginia"
Wow what piece of sh-t you scum bag liberal. You are trying to depress the Republican vote you dirt bag liberal subhuman. Virgina is a RED state and belongs to us, not the piece of sh-t Democrat vemin that moved in from Maryland.
Dennis D| 11.6.12 @ 10:41AM
After attending the Romney rally in Dem Bucks county Sunday and witnessing 30,000 people in the bitter cold I am convinced Romney wins and wins big.
KennesawJack| 11.6.12 @ 11:06AM
Dennis, the problem is whether their are numbers large enought to overcome the Philly Phraud.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 11:41AM
Spot on calls all around
George S| 11.6.12 @ 12:17PM
In 2008, the percentage of the electorate was compared to (2004):
Democrat 39% (37%)
Independent 29% (26%)
Republican 32% (37%)
In 2008, Obama got 52% of Independents, 20% of conservatives and 9% of registered Republicans.
What -- in your analysis -- reflects this trend today?
gene| 11.6.12 @ 12:39PM
Can Obama win NY without NYC and Long Island?
I have a lot of people hurting there right now and I honestly do not believe they are going to vote for the Pres. regardless of who they voted for in 2008.
JimH| 11.6.12 @ 2:26PM
An interesting point, unfortunately I think some of the worst hit parts of NYC, excluding lower Manhattan such as Staten Island and Howard Beach are some of the most conservative areas in the city.
gene| 11.6.12 @ 9:03PM
True. Looking at the current results from NY are depressing.
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 1:51PM
315 votes for Romney in the electoral college, and NO END of my victory caws and egotism if I am right (or if electoral votes for Romney go even higher). I cannot help being a protean Genius and a stone cold fox. Is it my fault that I must wear baggy pants to prevent women from fainting with lust even when my mind is on the esoteric thoughts of a true Mensan? No, it is not. Is it my fault that Obama is doomed? Well, a little.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 3:43PM
Obama 303, Romney 235, unless Romney squeeks by in Virginia, in which case it's Obama 290, Romney 248.
crushrail| 11.6.12 @ 3:56PM
You subhuman piece of sh-t. Your mom squeezes all the cum out d--ks you b-tch. Go move to North Korea you un-American piece of scum.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 4:12PM
You should go see Occam's Tool - an excellent psychiatrist - about this obsession you have with male sexual parts, and your Oedipal (go look it up) issues.
crushrail| 11.6.12 @ 4:48PM
Well you are a supporter of Bathouse Barry. By default, that makes you an automatic subhuman fruitcake anti-American.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 10:13PM
Apparently, most of America is too!
Alej| 11.6.12 @ 7:19PM
In which case the 12.8 % n:gger block vote turned the tide in America again.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 10:13PM
You are as low as they come, Alej.
irish19| 11.6.12 @ 5:29PM
OT, I hope to God you're right.
"Is it my fault that I must wear baggy pants to prevent women from fainting with lust even when my mind is on the esoteric thoughts of a true Mensan?"
Whoa, big fella! Wait until the votes are counted.
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 8:16PM
Hey, pal, that's always true, regardless of who wins the Presidential election. :-)
Simon Templar| 11.6.12 @ 2:15PM
Polls say.....
How about using your brain, Tabin, for once in your life. These polls have been so manipulated, corrupted, and in error, you now have liberal pundits admitting they are nothing more than tools for voter suppression and election manipulation. This is not an issue of partisanship, bias, or subjectivity. It statistical analysis and research methods, they teach it in colleges. Concepts such as sample size, sample integrity as an accurate subset of the universe, and survey integrity regarding question formulation are real, they do not come in either blue or red colors.
The internals of the polls, idiot, contradict their overall claims. Did you bother to notice this? Any interest at all or curiosity even in an academic way? Every fundamental ever spouted by a democrat or republican is moving against the Fraud but all you can see is clouds? Even a visitor from another planet could see the inherent crazy contradictions in all of this and wonder what the hell is going on here.
Good job, you bought and repeated a liberal narrative and participated in voter suppression and manipulation. They are cheating all over the nation but that does not seem to be a concern for you.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 3:44PM
Keep telling yourself that, Simon. It will give you something to suck on Wednesday morning.
crushrail| 11.6.12 @ 3:54PM
Your mom likes to suck on d--k you piece of trash libtard Marxist.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 4:10PM
Another perceptive intelligent comment from the right.
hook| 11.6.12 @ 4:15PM
Obviously crushrails comments should be redacted.
crushrail| 11.6.12 @ 4:46PM
Obviously RCV and hook are both diseased butt buddies. Just like Bath House Barry Obama.
TLP| 11.6.12 @ 5:04PM
I Like Your Style.
Keep it up.
You make me look MODERATE by comparison.
I appreciate that.
Warrior| 11.6.12 @ 8:00PM
Kudos, not an easy task at all.
hook| 11.6.12 @ 11:09PM
would your wishful thinking were true simon, but you aren't bright enough to understand the sickness that pervades this country. with an opposition composed of people like you in part, no wonder Obama won.
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 3:04PM
Well, My Dear Mr. Tabin:
You, too, will feel the CUT of the Razor. And you will be happy for it, you sick little monkey! :-)
Romney 315-325 votes in the EC. I don't drink wine, but I do have preferences in Chocalate and Steak.
KennesawJack| 11.6.12 @ 4:22PM
Really, Occam. You should try Yuengling Lager followed by an ice cold bit of Jaegermeister. In the proper ratios, they enhance the pleasure of both the chocolate AND the steak. Ah, it is good to be civilized, a gourmand, live in America and vote Republican. Truly a glorious day to be alive.
TLP| 11.6.12 @ 5:05PM
And you spelled Chocolate wrong.
Psychiatrist, heal thyself.
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 8:36PM
Damn, I spelled Chocolate wrong. Shit. Damn. Thanks, guys. (But we're still winning, hehehe.)
irish19| 11.6.12 @ 5:31PM
Jagermeister is bad news in a bottle. Yuengling not so much.
I've got the better part of a bottle of Wild Turkey Rye I'm hoping to celebrate with later. Hoping.
KennesawJack| 11.6.12 @ 5:49PM
You Irish are all alike. You're supposed to SIP Jaeger, not guzzle it. My friend, it is my FERVENT hope that you get to enjoy your Wild Turkey in a celebratory way.
hook| 11.6.12 @ 11:10PM
If only you were right Occam
John II| 11.6.12 @ 3:09PM
The Obamanation has by now fully revealed itself to be naught else but a weird coalition of button-down social engineers and crazed populist street-punks.
And so, I herewith prophesy: This day shall be a watershed in the history of the Republic: either we slough off the Obamanation to reassert the American experiment in limited constitutional governance and religious liberty and free-market prosperity and responsible military supremacy, or we slouch finally into the degenerate and chilly night of smug Euro-narcissism and fodder for Islamist thugs.
Yea, the die is cast. And, numbed of late by the Professor's endless cascade of cheap middle-school debating-team rhetoric, I cannot help waxing grandiloquent.
And now back to "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" (1939), in which Jimmy Stewart plays Paul Ryan 31 years before the latter was born. Hollywood wasn't quite as flaky in its Golden Years.
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 8:38PM
Recall that General James Stewart was the Greatest Politically Conservative Hollywood Actor of all time (and in the top 2 or 3 overall---hard to top Bogey in The Maltese Falcon, really), as well as being the 2nd Greatest Hero-Actor in American history (The Greatest being Audie Murphy---greatest hero part, that is; overall, Stewart was almost as great a hero and a much greater actor).
Datsun 2000 Mark| 11.6.12 @ 3:57PM
I hope you're wrong. I really hope....
TLP| 11.6.12 @ 5:22PM
I know him.
He usually is.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 10:17PM
Not this time.
Zeppo| 11.6.12 @ 5:16PM
Yeah, it rings true.
gene| 11.6.12 @ 9:05PM
Is there anywhere safe left to emigrate to, if it becomes necessary?
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 10:15PM
Try Singapore, Gene.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 10:16PM
Ah, McCaskill and Warren win as well - Senate will NOT be in GOP hands.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 11:20PM
Obama wins. It's over, TASers. Welcome back to reality.
Zeppo| 11.7.12 @ 1:15AM
You are certainly entitled to a good gloat tonight, RCV. I sincerely hope that you will still be smiling as the coming years unfold.
RCV| 11.7.12 @ 1:36AM
I have great faith in my country and its people.
ArturoMabb| 11.7.12 @ 2:17AM
we slouch finally into the degenerate www.abercrombieporto.com/a-f-echarpe-c-21.html and chilly night of smug Euro-narcissism and fodder for Islamist thugs.