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Streetcar Line
Welcome, President Mitt Romney
GOP team will win tomorrow.
Mitt Romney will be the next president of the United States. Paul Ryan, as vice president, will be breaking lots of 50-50 tie votes in the Senate. Bank on it.
Here’s the big picture for the presidency: Romney will win the entire South, including “swing” states North Carolina, Florida and Virginia, plus all the usual solid-red states of the inland West. That gets him to 248 electoral votes. From there, he will need only one state from each of the next two conglomerations of three. He will need to win either Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Michigan, plus either Colorado, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. He will indeed take two of those six in the right combinations, and he will be president. And that doesn’t even include New Hampshire (an absolute tossup), Iowa (I think it will go for Romney), or Nevada (probably an Obama state), or the lone elector from the Second Congressional District in Maine, which will go for Romney, too. And it doesn’t include still theoretically possible longer shots Oregon (actually, it’s doable) and New Mexico (probably not). Any of those states could help form other combinations that bring Romney to the 269-269 tie that he needs to carry the day — or better.
What it boils down to is that it is Obama, not Romney, who really has to “run the table” in order to eke out a victory. But he won’t. Romney will win, 284 Electoral Votes to 254 for Obama.
Romney will also win the popular vote, but with a plurality rather than a majority. I have it at Romney with 49.8 percent, Obama with 48.6 percent, and Gary Johnson/Virgil Goode/others at 1.6 percent. (Ignoring the fallacy of misplaced concreteness/misplaced specificity, and just to have some fun, I’ll peg Romney’s total votes at 64,576,316, Obama’s at 62,982,965, and all others combined at 2,135,802.)
In the Senate, as indicated above, Republicans will pick up three seats, for a 50-50 tie. (In a bit of a surprise, the Senate race in Maine will remain in doubt well into the wee hours of Wednesday morning maybe even longer with Republican Charlie Summers giving “Independent” fraud Angus King all he can handle, and with Democrat Cynthia Dill well behind but still pulling far more votes than expected. And in one other longshot possibility, if it is clear early enough in the evening that Romney has won, then Republican Linda Lingle might eke out a victory in Hawaii, which would give the GOP a chance at a 51st Senate seat.) George Allen will win Virginia, by the way, thus resuming a career interrupted in 2006 by the Washington Post.
In the House, Republicans will easily hold a majority; in fact, they will lose a net of only two seats, ending with a majority of 239 to 196. Of particular interest to knowledgeable conservatives, Conservative Opportunity Society co-founder Dan Lungren will indeed hold on in California’s hotly contested, redistricted Seventh District. And in Utah, Republican Mia Love will rush past incumbent Jim Matheson.
All of which would, of course, be mere assertions if there weren’t some method to the predictive madness. Of course, there is such a method. (For my past record at this, please, please consult this, with 2006 being the only year that marred my record.) We start with a bad economy (unemployment higher than when Barack Obama took office; household net worth down hugely, the dollar terribly devalued, etcetera). We add the fact that 55 percent of those polled by the Washington Post say the country is “on the wrong track” (vs. 43 percent on the “right track”), and that by a 50-46 margin, voters think Romney can do a better job with the economy than Obama can. (The sample size is a reasonable Democrat +3 — one that probably understates what the actual Republican turnout will be, but not by as much as many other polls.) These are not numbers that re-elect a president, nor ones that re-elect a Democratic Senate in a year in which Democrats are defending more seats, and more vulnerable seats, than Republicans are. They are especially not numbers that re-elect a president when tremendous intensity is on the side against him, while many of his own supporters remain somewhat disenchanted or dejected. Moreover, Romney also leads by a couple of points in the Real Clear Politics average of “net favorable” ratings, and leads by a huge margin in Rasmussen’s crucial “intensity of favorable/unfavorable” ratings when compared to Obama.
Anecdotal reports from Ohio, Virginia, and especially Wisconsin and Pennsylvania agree that enthusiasm is strongly on Romney’s side. The Republican “ground game” is light years better than it was in 2008, and probably even better than the superb effort put forth under Ed Gillespie’s leadership in 2004. Plus, more outside groups on the right are doing more of the smart political tasks than ever before, by a long shot. Pro-life groups, the National Rifle Association, Tea Party groups, Catholics and others motivated by religious freedom, and sharp upstarts such as American Majority Action are doing wonders with voter identification and mobilization. Plus, of course, Romney and supportive Super-PACS have raised and spent multiple times more money than anything Republican presidential efforts have even dreamed of in the past.
Against all this, Barack Obama has had four years to hone an organization that did, after all, garner an astonishing 69 million votes four years ago, plus has had the significant advantage of the most slavishly and hypocritically unprofessional “establishment media” this nation has ever seen. Those twin assets have been enough to keep him close — but they aren’t enough to overcome the remaining good sense of an American public where just enough people still have a wisely inculcated value system that rejects the weakness, failures, and leftist claptrap that animates Obama’s worldview.
With super-storm Sandy having interrupted Romney’s momentum last week, however, I found myself as late as Thursday night convinced that the former governor and turnaround specialist would barely squeak through in a 269-269 electoral vote tie, lifted by a 27-state majority in the U.S. House, and with West Virginia’s Joe Manchin breaking with fellow Democrats to cast the deciding Senate vote making Paul Ryan vice president. Significant civic unrest would have marred the transition, but it would have faded out in time for the inauguration due to the innate decency and common sense of the American people.
Thank goodness we probably won’t be relegated to such a scenario. Barack Obama has lost his magic, and his troops are a bit enervated. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has made up for a campaign-long spate of forgettable TV ads with a stretch-run personal performance worthy of the office he seeks. His stump speech has been sharper, his demeanor uplifting, his personal decency on display, and his deep love of these United States abundantly clear. And his running mate, Paul Ryan, has demonstrated knowledge, competence, can-do optimism and, yes, compassion, throughout an impressive first run on a national ticket.
For all those reasons, conservatives and independents who want a new and promising direction for the country they love can join Ryan in saying, yes, indeed, “we can do this. We can do this. We… can do this, now.”
About the Author
Quin Hillyer is a senior editor of The American Spectator and a senior fellow at the Center for Individual Freedom. Follow him on Twitter @QuinHillyer.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (188) | Leave a comment
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Aristocat| 11.5.12 @ 6:24AM
Romney will win all six of the states you mention.
TLP| 11.5.12 @ 7:42AM
In a sane world, having the following comments out in print via Obama’s racist books would have knocked him out of the running for president of the United States.(they would have crucified a white candidate for far less)
From Dreams from My Father,“ I FOUND A SOLACE IN NURSING A PERVASIVE SENSE OF GRIEVANCE AND ANIMOSITY AGAINST MY MOTHER’S RACE”. Barack Hussein Obama
From ‘Dreams from my Father’,The emotion between the races could never be pure, even love was tarnished by the desire to find in the other some element that was missing in ourselves. Whether we sought out our demons or salvation, THE OTHER RACE (WHITE) WOULD ALWAYS REMAIN JUST THAT: MENACING, ALIEN, AND APART.” Barack Hussein Obama
From Dreams from My Father:“THAT HATE HADN’T GONE” he wrote, BLAMING “WHITE PEOPLE — some CRUEL, some IGNORANT, sometimes a single face, sometimes just a faceless image of a system claiming power over our lives.” Barack Hussein Obama.
TLP| 11.5.12 @ 7:43AM
From ‘Dreams from My Father’,“There were enough of us on campus to constitute a tribe, and when it came to hanging out many of us chose to function like a tribe, staying close together, traveling in packs,” he wrote.“It remained necessary to prove which side you were on,to show your LOYALTY TO THE BLACK MASSES, TO STRIKE OUT and name names” Barack Hussein Obama
“Dreams From My Father,” page 101 (paperback, ISBN 978-1-4000-8277-3)
Dreams From My Father: To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully. The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. The Marxist professors and structural feminists“Dreams From My Father,” pages 99-100
Then there is his love of Islam:
Quote from Barack Obama’s book, Dreams Of My Father:
“THE PERSON WHO MADE ME PROUDEST OF ALL, THOUGH, WAS MY [half brother], ROY..HE CONVERTED TO ISLAM”.
From ‘Dreams of my Father’,“IN INDONESIA, I SPEND TWO YEARS AT A MUSLIM SCHOOL”“..I STUDIED THE KORAN..”
From ‘Audacity of Hope:“LOLO (Obama’s step father) FOLLOWED ISLAM....”I LOOKED TO LOLO FOR GUIDANCE”.
From ‘The Audacity Of Hope,“I WILL STAND WITH THEM (MUSLIMS) SHOULD THE POLITICAL WINDS OF WAR SHIFT IN AN UGLY DIRECTION..”.From The Audacity Of Hope,“WE ARE NO LONGER JUST A CHRISTIAN NATION, we are also a Jewish nation, a MUSLIM NATION, a Buddhist nation, a Hindu nation, and a nation of nonbelievers.”
Alej| 11.5.12 @ 7:59AM
"...chose to function like a tribe, staying close together, traveling in packs,” he wrote.“
Cool - the jig knew about flashmobs years before they happened !
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 12:59PM
Mitt Romney's name is above Barack Obama's on the Minnesota Ballot.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 10:15AM
As always, THANK YOU! Now.....LETS ROLL [tomorrow]!!!!!
Alan Third Party Voter Brooks | 11.5.12 @ 6:42PM
Oh just great, you are going to elect another Bush tomorrow. Thanks EVER so much.
Robert| 11.5.12 @ 6:51PM
You're MOST welcome! Way better than another Carter!
KennesawJack| 11.5.12 @ 8:53PM
Robert, I think you just insulted Carter and that's hard to do.
vtwin| 11.5.12 @ 10:42AM
If the polls are correct and they usually are Quin is wrong, Romney is not going to win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio or the Presidency and we are already hearing the excuses from Republicans; “The hurricane…broke Romney’s momentum.” “It’s the October surprise.” “It’s Chris Christie fault.”
Obama wins every state won in 2008 expect Indiana and North Carolina with Florida to close to call; giving Obama a 303 to 332 electrical vote victory over Romney’s 206 to 235.
ColoKat| 11.5.12 @ 11:41AM
the polls aren't correct-and that's because of the Liberal media bias! You cannot oversample Democrats by the points the pollsters are. The dynamics of the country have changed and the 2010 election should have shown that and the pollsters should have taken notice of the changes. The REAL numbers are much much closer-which means Obama is LOSING. Every action from Obama since the end of Sept. has shown how desparate he is to win-but it's just not happening. And getting Clinton-An Impeached President-out there stumping for him goes to show how far that desparation goes. Congrats Mr. President Romney!
Drunken Sailor| 11.5.12 @ 12:29PM
Riddle me this batman. If the elections are won by the independent votes and Romney is ahead with independents (by double digits in most cases) how does Obama pull a come from behind victory?
Add to that the decrease in Democrat enthusiasm.
- The persistently high unemployment numbers
- The below 50% approval ratings for Obama
And yet you still think it's a cake walk for Obama. I suggest you ask your doctor to adjust your meds.
chuck| 11.5.12 @ 3:44PM
Some of the polls have Romney +20 with independents.
O is toast. And he knows it.
Stephie| 11.5.12 @ 7:40PM
How does obama pull a come from behind victory?
He "Leans Forward" :-)
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 12:47PM
As Glen Beck said today, it will be great to be able to have the peace of mind on Wednesday that allows you to not have to even have a thought about the existence of this POTUS forever forward [bearing in mind the period between Tuesday and 1/20/13 of course]!!!!
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 1:13PM
315 votes for Romney is the Razor's Edge. OK, vtwin, you at least made your predictions out in the open for us to twit you about endlessly.
To be more specific: Take 206 as Romney's base. Add FL,CO,IA,NH,OH,VA,WI---that adds up to 295. Throw in PA, where Obama can get no one to his rallies and Bucks' county is pulling in 25K at Romney rallies, and you have 315. MN is actually polling slightly for Romney, and his name is at the TOP of the BALLOT in MN (Everyone knows in Chi that ya don't give da other guy da top of da ballot---ain't professional. Jeez.), which would be 325.
You live in Cali, vtwin, and I live in MN. No one was campaigning in Cali.
I'm listening to AC/DC's Back in Black, and, like Elric of Melnibone, I bring my Demonsword Stormbringer to the fray. Tomorrow I will see many tormented souls, and I will laugh maniacally with glee of battle, swirling the soul-drinking sword above my head.
Figuratively speaking, of course. But 'Bama's goin' down!
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 1:14PM
As you have no doubt noted, I have a range of 315 to 325 for Romney. The above calculations explain it.
vtwin| 11.5.12 @ 3:05PM
Come we are among friends here, is Mr. Tool and vtwin the only one with the courage to share their state by state predictions?
chuck| 11.5.12 @ 3:49PM
Romney takes PA,VA,NC,FL,OH,WI,IO,CO
Obama takes MI,OR,NM, NV
Romney 53% Obama 46% Romney 310+ electoral
GOP takes Senate 52-48, and ADDS to the House.
RCV| 11.5.12 @ 6:08PM
Dems will pick up one Senate vote.
Seek| 11.5.12 @ 6:32PM
Not to rain on my own parade as well as yours, but I think you're a bit optimistic. Romney should win North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa, and has a SLIGHTLY better than 50-50 chance of taking Florida and Ohio. But Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin? I don't think so.
As for a seven-point popular vote margin -- it's sheer wishful thinking. At best, Romney will win 51%-49%, not factoring in the outlier candidates. And if he can't win Ohio, then he's got to win Florida to win it all.
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 4:47PM
Hey, Big V, I don't always agree with you, but I like you as a human being. Take care and be safe riding.
RCV| 11.5.12 @ 6:07PM
Ditto, OT.
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 7:39PM
Take care, vtwin, and safe driving.
And you too, Roberto. Jeez, I remember my days driving on the LA Freeways. Eek.
CJW| 11.5.12 @ 6:11PM
Michael Barone is correct, Romney by over 300.
I saw Clinton in Pght today at lunch. They always schedule the political rallies at Market Square in downtown, surrounded by office bldgs and restaurants. So there is a lot of foot traffic to make it appear as a big crowd. There were buses bringing in union members, carrying the usual signs (UMW, SEIU, UPAT, Teamsters, etc). They did not look smiling. Just carring signs, probably paid, since many are unemployed due to Obama. If they were working they would be at their jobs.
I heard people asking "when's Clinton going on?"Clinton is a draw.
Not much entusiasm when you have to bus in a crowd.
RCV| 11.5.12 @ 3:31PM
Obama wins. Obama electoral total either 290 or 313, depending on how Virginia goes. Popular vote very close, and Romney may squeek out a slight margin due to depressed turnout in Democrat-rich Sandy's path (though electoral votes for Obama there won't be affected).
HBealeJr| 11.5.12 @ 5:28PM
I've got Romney with 331. Our long socialist experiment is nearly over!
ausretired| 11.6.12 @ 6:23AM
Exact same number I get.!!
Archie| 11.5.12 @ 1:48PM
What the heck are you talking about?! Penn, Wis, and Ohio are in play. The hurricane should have broken Obama's momentum (what little he had), but the media took care of that. Imagine if an R was in office during Sandy.
Besides, NJ, NYC and CT are already in the bag for Obama, so the hurricane makes not one bit of difference. Except for maybe the rest of the country seeing the incompetence of democrats responding to crisis.
Dukehoopsfan| 11.5.12 @ 5:24PM
"Obama wins every state won in 2008 expect Indiana and North Carolina with Florida to close to call; giving Obama a 303 to 332 electrical vote victory over Romney’s 206 to 235."
Not sure what universe you are in but "electrical" votes will not count tomorrow.
KennesawJack| 11.5.12 @ 9:00PM
Hey Dukie, are you guys REALLY ready for my Syracuse Orange to come to the ACC? Living near Atlanta, I can't wait 'til next year to watch them play Tech and, yes, gonna travel to Duke to watch them play you guy. Syracuse and Pitt along with Duke, NC, and NC State makes ACC the PREMIER bball league in the country.
badnewzbearz| 11.5.12 @ 11:40PM
In what universe does Obama replicate his turnout advantage from 2008? Because with Romney’s advantage with independents, it appears that is what it will take for Obama to win.
We look at the Republican enthusiasm advantage that every poll shows – and we also look at the real numbers for early voting, absentee ballots, and registrations in every battleground state. In every state, Dems are under performing their 2008 numbers by a significant amount, and Republican numbers are up. This is why no one at this site believes that the Democrats can match their 2008 D+7 turnout advantage.
Add to that the Rasmussen and Gallup party affiliation numbers that show a 3-6% Republican advantage, and it becomes even more unlikely. At the moment the Republicans have a party affiliation advantage that exceeds 2010 by quite a bit.
Now, get your head out of Nate Silver’s arse, and join us here in the real world.
Romney wins the EC with 295 and the PV 51-48.
Appleby| 11.5.12 @ 6:48AM
It's going to be a long night.
Stephie| 11.5.12 @ 8:05AM
Have a party and drink heavily!
chuck| 11.5.12 @ 3:50PM
PA is the key. If (when) it goes Romney, its all over.
Gary B| 11.5.12 @ 7:15AM
I can't wait to hear the howling from the Obama camp and how a Romney victory really doesn't mean anything. It's just a voter tantrum. Remember that conclusion?
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 10:17AM
I just hope that and electric shock of 240 volt power surges up Chris Matthews' leg this time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Von Mises Jr| 11.5.12 @ 7:17AM
While the dullest may not yet understand the arrogance of the Obama/Biden regime claiming "we are the ones we have been waiting for," they have figured out that something has gone awfully wrong.
Those versed in socialist propaganda understand that this is the rebuttal to the failures of communism and fascism throughout the last two centuries. The argument is that socialism would work if only we had competent and benevolent leaders such as the Obama and Clinton crowd.
But now Benghazi is exploding in their face and all see that they are incompetent boobs, or worse. And don't forget Obama's promise that he will "stop the seas from rising and heal the planet." Tell that to the people on Wall Street whom had 13'8" storm surge swamp the subways and tunnels, or the poor souls in Staten Island and the Jersey Shore.
It never pays to poke God in the eye.
chuck| 11.5.12 @ 7:46AM
"It never pays to poke God in the eye."
Yes. The good Lord does have a habit of humbling the arrogant.
Grzmlyk| 11.5.12 @ 9:17AM
I live in Vermont, which is 99.9% liberal - at least the areas around Burlington and Montpelier, which comprise probably 90% of the population.
Not a person I know is disenchanted with Obama; on the contrary, while they may not be as enthusiastic as they once were, they believe that Romney is an evil stupid, dirty capitalist. Never mind the empirically provable fact that Romney has, in his life, demonstrated compassion, business acumen, moral decency, fairness and overall competence, whereas Obama has demonstrated a puerile, petulant, ignorant, bigoted, selfish, narcissistic, pompous, foolish contempt for virtually anyone who does not genuflect before him.
And still my circle of acquaintances - which is quite large - remains vociferously pro-Obama.
Unfortunately they will NEVER accept the realities of socialism. It is true that they believe that it's a matter of selecting the "right" totalitarian, but they believe Obama has done great and would have been more successful but for ugly partisan politics and sabotaging, evil Republicans.
Hell, I read a comment on some Web site yesterday that said the media was completely biased - toward the RIGHT!
Mencken said nobody ever went broke underestimating the intellect of the average American and he was right.
Just read Jonathan Chait's latest piece in New York Magazine - he makes the case that Obama's been a GREAT president.
These people will NEVER turn away from their religion.
KennesawJack| 11.5.12 @ 9:34AM
I have a family member who holds a senior position with one of the "Big 3" medical insurance companies and HE is vociferously supporting Obamarx. Go figure.
Grzmlyk| 11.5.12 @ 10:00AM
Frankly, I don't understand it. It's like people denying that gravity exists, or that the sky is blue. It is utterly insane. People are voting against their own interests, as seems to be the case with your relative; I happen to work for a Fortune 50 insurance Company, and many of my colleagues are pro-Obama. Certainly the track record of my company is "go along to get along," and the political correctness here DISGUSTS me.
The only explanation I can come up with is that three emotions drive Democrats: Envy, greed and vanity.
And, in supporting a candidate who wants to destry them too, they prove that emotion trumps rationality every time.
But then that is the stock-in-trade of your garden-variety intellectual, the pied piper to whom the NPR-listening, faux compassion-mongering, wanna-be-considered-cool crowd.
Our populace has become infantilized by wealth, sloth, relentless propaganda from the mainstream media and the full-blown takeover by socialists of our most important institutions: Education, science, politics and communication.
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 10:43AM
The idiots assume that they will be smart enough to weasel out of the net.
However, I'm in MN, and we are IN PLAY!
To understand the idiots you deal with, read some George Orwell. It is very difficult to face facts that are directly in front of your face, sometimes.
Al Adab| 11.5.12 @ 11:26AM
Grz put it correctly. To The Left it is a religion. Their Faith makes them incapable of rendering logical choices.
Should Romney eek out a win tomorrow (an it will take FL, Ohio, and one other maybe IA or WI or NH) we will be subjected to lawsuit after lawsuit and to four years of ridicule, obstructionism by the Dem Senate and street protests (sadly the possibility of urban riots as well) which together will render it difficult to govern and undo the damge of the last four years.
Tyranny never rests and will not accept the result of a Romney win. The beast of totalitarianism continues to raise his head.
Grzmlyk| 11.5.12 @ 11:38AM
True, Al Adab.
I used to think that, to avoid the inevitable and widespread cheating of Democrats, Romney would have to win by 5 points or more. Now I think he's going to have to win by 10 or more.
Because the cheating will be ubiquitous, thanks to the fact that the machinery of local politics is almost always operated by Democrats.
And most Democrats are fine with cheating; indeed, it's their way of life. After all, the mantra of their religion is that it's ok to cheat if you're serving a greater "justice;" it's ok to lie if you're serving a greater "truth;" it's ok to penalize the innocent if you'reserving a greater "fairness," and it's ok to commit violent acts if you're serving a greater "peace."
Grzmlyk| 11.5.12 @ 11:33AM
Yes, I've read both Animal Farm and 1984.
I have come to realize that, in this world, seeing is not believing - believing is seeing.
There could be a video circulating of Barack Obama walking up to a bystander on the street, stabbing that bystander in the heart over and over with a hunting knife and then sauntering away as the blood gushes from the collapsing victim, and your average Democrat would only see a beatific Obama shaking the guy's hand and showing herculean concern for that guy's well being.
Knife? What knife? Blood? What blood? What are you evil Republicans talking about? All your average liberal would see is a beneficent demigod showing just how much he cares about the mere mortals who could never appreciate his superior level of existence.
What is behind this utterly counterfeid facade? When you peel back the mask of uber-compassion that all liberals love to wear, what you get is a melange of very destructive emotions - chiefly, as I say, vanity, envy and greed. Vanity and greed I have long since come to accept as sine qua nons of liberal thought; but I never gave envy its full due - the desire to destroy a person you perceive has having more than you do.
Is not the entirety of the appeal of liberal dogma based on one of those three toxic emotions?
Another phrase of Mencken's comes to mind: The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it.
RCV| 11.5.12 @ 11:45AM
Occam, if you believe Minnesota is in play, you have truly become delusional. The latest poll out today has Obama up by 11 points. The fact that a small GOP-commisioned poll says its close, when everyone else has Obama at or close to double digits in Minnesota says it all. Nate Silver puts the chances of an Obama victory in Minnesota in the high 90s. Romney has as much chance of carrying Vermont. But dream on my friend!
Grzmlyk| 11.5.12 @ 11:56AM
What do you do for a living, RCV?
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 1:20PM
He's a Constitutional lawyer, who believes his view of things in California regarding Minnesota is more accurate than mine regarding MN.
Here's the breakdown, RCV: Cravaack is too close to call. Bachmann wins. Klobuchar wins, easily. Romney wins.
I'm living here. I can feel what's going on. All you've got are polls. Nate Silver can kiss my Hairy Hebraic Tuchus.
More explanation on Wednesday, from my Demonsword Stormbringer. After we win, he may speak for me in the future, or Elric himself. We shall see.
Grzmlyk| 11.5.12 @ 2:11PM
How do you know he's a Constitutional lawyer? I'm not challenging it, I just want to know; most of the trolls on this site lie about what they do, if they ever answer at all.
So in other words (if he was telling you the truth), RCV is a soldier in the army of Gaia, working to "change the world" in his image, and looking to make a shitload of money off of other people while he tries to coerce them into servitude to Leviathan while he collects his "fair share" of "free" lucre at the government trough.
Perhaps he studied under that paragon of knowledge of All Things Constitutional, Barack Obama, who knows as much about the Constitution as I know about knitting.
But I guess if you're a "Constitutional lawyer" all you really have to know is that, as far as your are concerned, the Constitution is something you wipe your ass with - until, of course, you want to cite it in support of something you're trying to legislate that is the antithesis of its purpose.
We need another Consitutional lawywer in this country like a cancer patient needs another tumor.
RCV| 11.5.12 @ 6:09PM
How do we know you live in Vermont?
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 7:34PM
Mr. G: skill in manipulation of data that would be pertinent to same is how I judge RCV. As a Psychiatrist, I have some knowledge of Constitutional law issues in a very narrow spectrum on a professional level, because I have to.
I don't doubt him on that. I just doubt him on areas of logic in politics. Of course, my logic leads me to some very unpleasant places; for instance, if Obama is re-elected I see a very good chance of the basic scenario underlying Tom Kratman's novel Caliphate being implemented: to wit, America is subjected to limited nuclear attacks and "loses it," unleashing WWII unlimited war capabilities on the Muslim world, ratcheted up a bit. 100 years later, the final battle for Europe is pending between the American Empire and the Caliphate in Europe, the Middle East having become, for the most part, an irradiated hole.
We need to avoid that with an appropriate show of strength now to take Iran down. No, it doesn't need to be nuclear, but it does need to be decisive. I fear Obama is not up to it.
Domestically, of course, he is an even worse disaster.
For some reason, RCV views him as an old fashioned Democrat like, say, Scoop Jackson or LBJ.
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 7:43PM
For example, Iran has plenty of unsavory allies that would give it a container ship for cover. Enough properly placed lead, and a primitive undetected inefficient bomb could do great damage in Galveston Bay. If you have ever seen Texas City, you would know how vulnerable it is, and how important it is in US refining capacity.
I've actually stomped and driven around the bay a bit. UTMB class of 88.
Warrior| 11.5.12 @ 8:10PM
RCV is a Constitutional lawyer like OT is a brain surgeon. He most likely is a bottom of the line public defender who drools at defending pedophiles and rapists. I don't even know why I give him credit for college, his grasp on reality and facts are about as real as Obama's support for Israel.
Ralph Novy| 11.7.12 @ 6:02AM
I find it telling, Occam, that you describe yourself as a Psychiatrist -- with a capital "P."
Oh, and in view of your criticism of RCV's logic, I thought you saying that you could "feel" what was going on in MN was just precious.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 12:51PM
To those of us possibly to challanged to reflect upon GO's words, may I suggest instead those of Forrest Gump: STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES [and boy were we Americans stupid four years ago, and has it ever come back to bite us in the rear]!!!!
Occam's Tool| 11.6.12 @ 12:41AM
Warrior: I am a Psychiatrist, not a Brain Surgeon. I've also named my school, class, and year. Pay attention.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 4:20PM
Mine are: B.A. UCLA 1969 (major: psychology)
J.D. Stanford 1973.
Ralph Novy| 11.7.12 @ 6:03AM
No Fry Cook in there anywhere?
SUBVET| 11.5.12 @ 1:16PM
Jack I guess that family member was from your "wife's" side huh..........
Von Mises Jr| 11.5.12 @ 10:39AM
I have been to the White Mountains probably 25 times on vacation and only went to Vermont once. Lake Willoughby was beautiful but bizarre.
My son and I walked through the woods to where a couple cute young girls were topless sunbathing on the rocks. We walked out accidentally onto a nude gay beach. Some buck naked older guy came up when he saw my son assuming he was fresh meat. My son almost crapped his bathing suit.
I am libertarian in my beliefs, but the people of VT are whack jobs. No offense intended, my friend.
Grzmlyk| 11.5.12 @ 11:51AM
No offense taken; I'm originally from Chicago, and I've lived all over - in liberal cities thanks to my jobs: New York, Boston, San Francisco.
Vermont used to be monolithically Republican - if you watch the movie White Christmas (a hokey delight), at one point Danny Kaye and Bing Crosby are trying to figure out how to get a novelty act to come to the inn they're trying to save:
Crosby: What do you think would be a novelty up here in Vermont?
Kaye: Who knows? Maybe we could dig up a Democrat.
Crosby: They’d stone him.
If only.
How times have changed - and NOT for the better. Even in the 10 years I've lived in Vermont it has welcomed with open arms a litany of the same urban problems that beset major cities across the U.S. Crime has gone up, the culture has fractured and there is a brand new hard-bitten underclass (not to mention a lot of Muslims). These issues never used to plague this once-pristine place. Every UVM student is an activist for social justice. They don't know jack shit about life, but that doesn't stop them from having temper tantrums if they don't get their way.
And why have the liberals welcomed these problems? They say it's progressivism but it's really religious zeal that is fueled by GREED for federal dollars and the urge to force others to live the way they want them to live.
chuck| 11.5.12 @ 3:53PM
Jesus GRZ!
You come from a state that voted in a Socialist to the Senate! Of course those assholes are for Obama!
Grzmlyk| 11.5.12 @ 4:05PM
Not only that, but that inveterate hack and congenital crook, Pat Leahy, is WORSHIPPED here. It's unbelievable.
Bernie Sanders - a New Yorker, like all liberal Vermonters - is indeed revered.
I cannot fathom how people see parts of Burlington becoming a cesspool, the welfare rolls growing, taxes exploding, and think this is progress. You should see the "Shumlin" signs on virtually every Burlingon lawn. Shumlin - the governor - is another generic crook, a hand-over-fist liberal who thinks there's no problem that can't be solved by throwing other people's money at it.
I honestly think liberals suffer from a mental illness that can never be cured.
chuck| 11.5.12 @ 8:22PM
The only cure for that mental illness is a bullet for breakfast.
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 4:21PM
Spoken like a true Republican!
Louisiana Joe| 11.5.12 @ 5:19PM
I have lived all my life down here in the deep South where the schools are supposed to be very inferior but we undereducated red necks sure saw through Barry O much better than you over educated northerners. I guess common sense trumps education in this case.
Anyway, let’s hope all of America, North, South, East, and West now understands that hope and rhetoric is not a strategy for a successful America. Vote tomorrow like your and your children’s future depends on it.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 10:19AM
Good [and truthful] one....thanks!!!!
Kwan| 11.5.12 @ 7:21AM
There is not one logical reason for giving Obama another 4 years in office to wreck the country. It's like giving a pyromaniac a five gallon can of gasoline and a book of matches, and telling him, "Just do your thing man." It's quite obvious that Obama like his fellow Marxist revolutionary heroes Bill Ayers (Weather Underground ) and General Field Marshall Cinque (Symbionese Liberation Army) hate the United States. Voting for Obama means you are rejecting freedom, and willing to become a mindless serf-droid in a Communist People's Republic.
Al Adab| 11.5.12 @ 11:20AM
But Kwan, you used the magic word logical in reference to voting. The Left has never used that criteria and since they now control the once proud and once patriotic Democrat party there is no logic to be found. Emotion trumps all.
Dodd2| 11.5.12 @ 7:24AM
Amen, Brother!
pogybait| 11.5.12 @ 7:28AM
It will be interesting to watch the liberal media outlets spinning like a washing machine, after all election laws were only written as a suggestion.....
Stephie| 11.5.12 @ 8:08AM
Will be watching MSNBC off and on to see Chrissy Matthews have his long awaited breakdown. Mika will weep openly on Morning Joe.
Obama has been sliding downhill since his "you didn't build that" comment and hopefully the scandal that is Benghazi will end up being his legacy.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 10:20AM
Yep, exactly! Recall the movie of yesteryear "Network" and the character that Peter finch portrayed!!!!!!!!!!
TLP| 11.5.12 @ 4:05PM
You shoulda been in the Contest this Weekend.
You coulda walked away with all of the Empty Hand Lotion Bottles that Mathews goes through on Election Night.
His Used, Wet Tissues, from under his table.
Or, the Home Version of his Wet Pantleg.
Stan Redmond| 11.5.12 @ 3:09PM
Remember how much they wanted Gore to be president for the mere fact exit polling showed him ahead?
TLP| 11.5.12 @ 4:07PM
Remember when Al Gore LOST that Election, because HE COULDN'T WIN HIS OWN STATE?
RCV| 11.6.12 @ 4:22PM
... and he had a clear majority of the popular votes.
R Martin| 11.5.12 @ 7:32AM
Mr. Hillyer analyzes the election as a student of politics, but he misses the real reason Romney will win tomorrow and he is, perhaps, unaware of our ace in the hole. Tomorrow is my birthday. Thats right, there's no way the birthday gods will present me with another four years of Obama.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 10:21AM
HAPPY BIRTHDAY! .....now LETS ROLL [tomorrow]!!!!
Al Adab| 11.5.12 @ 11:29AM
"If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray, then I will hear from heaven and will restore their land"
What are you doing this evening?
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 12:53PM
I will be praying AND lacing up my decrepit tennis shoes in order to be prepared to run to my polling station tomorrow and do my duty!!!!
WRTolkas| 11.5.12 @ 8:04AM
Thank you Mr. Hillyer. My wife told me this morning that some talking head on MSM stated that obummer would win tomorrow no matter what. Your editorial brightened my day. Now to vote tomorrow, no matter what.
JP| 11.5.12 @ 8:12AM
This will a Mitt wave election (one that has him winning in PA, WI, OH, IA, MO, and MI), or it will be an election that will be so close that Obama's Chitown Machine will prevail where it finds enough votes to prevail in Ohio and Virginia -thus winning the 270 electoral votes.
In the first case, Mitt's popularity will not have shown up in the polls, and his coattails are long enough to usher even Atkins to victory in the Senate. The later case, will see a long drawn out recount which will allow Obama's team to "find" just enough votes to carry it across the finish line.
Nancy in NC| 11.5.12 @ 8:32AM
Here in NC the Dims are busy bringing in the mentally incompetent on buses and one individual bragged on his Facebook page he would vote for obama five times. The Dims will commit vote fraud all over the country, but I don't think it will be enough.
There's one thing the Dims haven't considered: the number of Democrats who will cross the aisle and vote for Romney. Many of them will lie to the exit pollsters and to their friends, but inside the privacy of the voting booth it will be a different story.
Nevertheless, I am still praying hard and will be working hard tomorrow.
squalis| 11.5.12 @ 9:40AM
I hope you and Quin are both right. My wife, a die-hard lib (or at least she thinks she is) is so fed up with O and his policies, she actually voted for Romne, the first time she has ever voted R for President. She has sworn me to secrecy with the rest of her lib family (I have no fear letting her secret out here as she never reads these pages).
Now, as for lying to pollsters, I have first hand experience with that. Here in Washington State, where we vote by mail and our 2 Presidential votes probably won't matter, there is a ballot initiative to legalize gay marraige. While I don't have any particular moral objection to gay marraige, I am so very sick of this issue taking center stage for so many when there are much more substantial problems facing our country, that in protest, I voted against the initiative. I lied to my wife regarding that vote.
I do hope I am correct that my wife is not a closet AS reader to check up on me.
squalis| 11.5.12 @ 9:43AM
Actually, WA State had legislature passage and Governor signature already to legalize gay marraige. This ballot initiative is to affirm the measure.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 10:28AM
Washingtonians may wish to recall the fourth Commandment of G-D: HONOR THY FATHER AND THEY MOTHER!!!!!!!!!
SUBVET| 11.5.12 @ 1:20PM
squalis.........I can't believe you lied to your wife.....who does that ?
squalis| 11.5.12 @ 3:19PM
William Jefferson Clinton.
My lie is far more innocuous, and avoided a repeat of a contentious argument that would have served absolutely no constructive purpose (she knows where I stand).
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 10:25AM
On FOX this morning a former Navy Seal was being interviewed and told of his organization of Seals who would be manning the polling stations as poll watchers tomorrow nationally [as a counter to the previously famous NBPP's intimidation of Philadelphia voters in 2008 and the DOJ's refusal to prosecute them for same]!!!!
ColoKat| 11.5.12 @ 11:51AM
I voted for Romney days ago, as well as my black husband. My husband has been shaking his head at all the intelligent and successful black people who support Obama. Colin Powell?? For Real? Anyway, the support for Romney is once again (behind the curtain). I'm surprised that so many feel that must "Hide" their vote for a person who is so much more capable at running the country. God Bless Mitt and Hello Mr. President Romney! Happy that the Seals will be out there keeping an eye on things at the polls!!
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 12:59PM
Yes, the Seals and all of the US military people past and present] are simply the backbone-spine of this nation, and without whom there would be no USA. Our collective hearts bleed for the two Seals who recently lost their lives defending the rest of us and our families. John McCain said it best today when he retold the sentiments of the many military personnel that have confided in him regarding this deplorable situation and their disgust at how it has been handled by our government, but the end of this story has not been told yet [but it eventually will be] !!!!!!!!!
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 1:40PM
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfro...../id/462834
Purp| 11.5.12 @ 5:55PM
You mean the 3 Black Panthers? That group... sad you fall for such shit.
John786| 11.5.12 @ 8:55AM
Nate silver et al will have egg on their face- NOT.
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 10:44AM
After the election, John786, please move to Teheran, where we can give you a little surprise within the next 6 months.
John786| 11.5.12 @ 10:56AM
Its Austerity at home and war abroad. This is why you ain't going to win. It may persuade the gullible; but not this time. Time to go and see the psychiatrist regarding your potty issue.
Riff Raff| 11.5.12 @ 12:29PM
It's spend-like-there-is-no-tomorrow at home and half-assed "nation-building" abroad, the Obama program. This is why you aren't going to win. It may persuade the gullible (like you) but more people are seeing the fraud President for what he really is, a dolt, a fool, a puppet for global socialists. Dumb-asses like you have fallen for his schtick, and will never turn away, incapable as you are of independent thought. But the tide is turning away from totalitarian government, where the totality of life revolves around government. People who build, who work, who succeed are tired of self-important failures and freeloaders like you and your fraud President. Barack Obama is a colossal failure. Time for him to go home (wherever that may be). Live with it.
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 1:21PM
No, it's prosperity at home and vermin on their knees abroad, as we shall not engage in Nation Building, just scum destruction.
BOHICA, JOHN786, prepare for the RAM, like a good child molester.
Warrior| 11.5.12 @ 8:14PM
How can you take anyone seriously who is relying on data from Nate Silver a fantasy baseball geek who predicted the 2008 election results (like there was any doubt). He parlayed his predictions into a Huffpo blog and then a liberal wet dream. Kreskin, no. Washed up, yes.
Anthony| 11.5.12 @ 9:10AM
Put a fork in the Kenyan Muslim Marxist and his party. They be toast. Enjoy the pig roast!!
Ronald Reagan's shining city on the hill is about to lite up so bright, they'll be able to see it in Kenya.
KennesawJack| 11.5.12 @ 9:41AM
And Iran, and Iraq, and Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and Syria, and Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, and Libya, and Tunisia, and Mali, and Gaza, and every other god-forsaken sh*t-hole Muslim country.
Purp| 11.5.12 @ 5:54PM
Romney - Reagan ... you are clearly DELUSIONAL.. hahahahaha ... Poor Ronnie in that comparison. Not very respectful Anthony.
hammertrick| 11.5.12 @ 9:44AM
Don't mean to darken anyone's day, somebody wrote in before...
"People that cast votes decide nothing. People that count votes decide everything."
Joseph Stalin
sane person| 11.5.12 @ 10:04AM
Its game over, Nate Silver gives Obama an 86% chance of winning it tomorrow.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 10:13AM
Well everyone here is now aware of two individuals who....... are stupid as hell!!!!!!!!!!
sane person| 11.5.12 @ 11:31AM
You and who else?
Riff Raff| 11.5.12 @ 12:30PM
"sane person". True irony.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 12:45PM
Look in your mirror, idiot!!!!!!
Drunken Sailor| 11.5.12 @ 12:36PM
How long is his track record again? Oh yea, now I remeber, one presidential election cycle.
Drunken Sailor| 11.5.12 @ 12:36PM
Should read. now I remember,
TLP| 11.5.12 @ 4:12PM
Stop getting Drunk before you make your Comments!
Drunken Sailor| 11.5.12 @ 4:45PM
You're assuming I stop getting drunk?
TLP| 11.5.12 @ 5:45PM
Point taken.
Warrior| 11.5.12 @ 8:16PM
Have you taken your own advice?
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 10:11AM
I hope and pray that Quin is correct, but I will not be COUNTING CHICKENS UNTIL 'THEY COME HOME TO ROOST' In 2008 it could I guess be argued that people's ignorance was the cause, but after four years of this radicalism, I simply cannot believe that the American people are that stupid as to re-elect this POTUS. If I'm am proved wrong, I'll look for a high enough bridge to jump from possibly. As Todd and others aboard 9/11/01's flight 93 previously yelling before charging the cockpit.......LETS ROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
sane person| 11.5.12 @ 11:30AM
Have a nice landing!
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 1:02PM
Dispicable.....but entirely typical!!!!!!!
sane person| 11.5.12 @ 1:19PM
When we take over this country finally we will be able to rid it of the "oldefartees." We have had enough of the right wing kooks who hate this country and its diversity, its educational system, its people, etc. and
want us to constantly go to war. If there is a war, the right will start it and we on the left will finish it. Trust that you do not have enough guns and people to stop us.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 1:58PM
http://www.newsmax.com/US/blac...../id/462839
Purp| 11.5.12 @ 5:53PM
Newsmax? That's your problem... 'nuf said.
sane person| 11.5.12 @ 1:19PM
When we take over this country finally we will be able to rid it of the "oldefartees." We have had enough of the right wing kooks who hate this country and its diversity, its educational system, its people, etc. and
want us to constantly go to war. If there is a war, the right will start it and we on the left will finish it. Trust that you do not have enough guns and people to stop us.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 1:33PM
Go back to your INsane asylum, or be prepared to GET A JOB [your governmental welfare will end in one year after this election]!!!!!!!
sane person| 11.5.12 @ 8:36PM
I have a job. I own my own company that designs microchips. I have a PhD in EECS from MIT. I made a few million before I was 30 and continue to make more. What have you done "Oldsmellygasbag?"
Or should I refer to you as skidmark?
Frankly, we blue state people who drive the technology advances in this country are tired of supporting the red states of the south who get more in entitlements than they pay in taxes and then vote for kooks. Unfortunately, you red staters are too dumb to know what is in your best interest.
Romney will sell out the US to China (or whoever is the highest bidder) and the USA workers will get screwed.
A vote for Romney is a vote against the good old USA.
jo blo| 11.5.12 @ 11:34PM
Here's a question:
Let EXACT 4SAT be the following problem:
• Given a Boolean formula ϕ, consisting of an AND of clauses involving exactly 4 distinct literals each(such as(x2∨qx3∨qx5 ∨x6)), decide whetherϕ is satisfiable.
Show that EXACT 4SAT is NP-complete. You can use the fact, that3SAT is NP-complete
jo blo| 11.5.12 @ 11:34PM
Since you're an MIT grad, and all.
jo blo| 11.5.12 @ 11:37PM
And, I might add, even if you are an MIT grad with the achievements you claim, your talk about the left finishing the war confirms that you are, indeed, a pencil-necked geek who has absolutely no idea of what it takes to win a fight, and so your opinion is worth exactly jack crap.
Flavius Ocatavius| 11.5.12 @ 11:47PM
"we blue state people who drive the technology advances in this country..."
Really? The arrogance of leftists has no bounds. I'm an engineer that works for an American tech giant. And I can guarantee you that, even though it is stuck in a hopelessly liberal blue state that's up to its eyeballs in debt, the vast majority of its employees are conservatives.
And your blue-state-supports-red-state meme is not only tired, it's unfounded. Three of the top five states that have received the most fed funding since 2000 are ... blue.
http://www.theblaze.com/storie.....or-wed-am/
sane person| 11.7.12 @ 7:47AM
I bet you work for a defense contractor. The engineers at these companies are stale, stupid and feel entitled. I never hire them. Moreover, I find BS level engineers to be non-creative and therefore I mostly hire PhD level people that can truly come up with breathtaking ideas for commercial markets. This is a completely different line of work than I am sure you are familiar with or can compete in.
When the defense cuts come, it will be hard on you I am sure. Best of Luck.
Bob Grant| 11.5.12 @ 10:13AM
It seems to me Romney could possibly win because:
(A) It seems obama has run out of money. I don't know about you but I've noticed seeing nothing but Romney television ads this past week whereas nothing but obama ads the previous three weeks. I know if this is just anecdotal but it seems to me Romney was in position for a massive ad blitz the last week of the election.
(B) Enthusiasm. Romney's CLEARLY winning here. No question about it.
(C) Independents. By all indications he's up by 15 points and quite possibly more. Much more!
(D) And finally what's not been discussed. And that is what I call the "silent" group of electorates within the democratic party who simply cannot in good conscious vote for obama again. They've seen him in action for 4 years. Some are embarrassed by his actions, the way he's conducted himself office, e.g. the pitting one group of citizens against another, the continual lying throughout his entire administration, the incompetence, the unseriousness with which he takes his job, etc. Some are embarrassed by his inactions, e.g., golfing instead of legislating, not involving himself deeply enough on the pressing issues (Fiscal Crisis), not interacting with advisers and party leaders, etc. In other words, he's been an utter failure and deep down they know this, and thus, cannot vote in good conscious for him. They were called "Reagan Democrats" in the '80's. Romney might not win their vote but Obama CERTAINLY has NOT.
...cont
Bob Grant| 11.5.12 @ 10:13AM
...Voting shenanigans by the democrats notwithstanding, Romney SHOULD win tomorrow for the reasons mentioned above.
That's not to say sit on your hands if you've already voted or haven't because you think Romney has it in the bag, get your lazy ass out there and vote and get others too as well!!!!!
Bob Grant| 11.5.12 @ 10:16AM
cor. Others "to".
Bob Grant| 11.5.12 @ 10:18AM
Oh and
(E) Joe Biden - Enough said!
Purp| 11.5.12 @ 5:52PM
Of course you're wrong - Democrats don't see the President the way you do.
Fear is a great motivator, and that's all the Republicans got. Romney instills nothing in people - he's crass, plastic and has no soul or conviction, let alone heart, compassion or conscience.
The Hurricane Sandy was God's way of reminding us of the power of the Presidency and the Strong Leadership Qualities of Barack Obama - Just ask Republican Gov Chris Christie, not me.
There will be a surprise tomorrow - but YOU won't like it.
Warrior| 11.5.12 @ 8:19PM
Sandy?? Unions leaving customers without power because they are blocking non-union workers to assist. Obama left for Las Vegas after "touring" NJ. FEMA can't get fuel into the area and has run out of water to deliver. That's the leadership you are referring to? What a moron.
swimdog| 11.5.12 @ 10:23AM
From your lips to God's ears!! But can I remind some of you premature ejaculators the folly of partying with 26 outs....Yankees vs Marlins, Cardinals vs Rangers, Red Sox vs Mets. Do you realize how many no-hitters were lost in the 9th inning....Its not that I'm superstitious or anything but for all that's holy can we at least keep everything in our favor during this final inning? Then once its over, GO CRAZY BABY- (Knock on wood)!!!
SUBVET| 11.5.12 @ 1:31PM
Dog........ya my son the BB player says there is a BB God. I always laughed at him untill watched the world series [6th game] Angles v SF.
I sat up in the nose bleed seats looking down into the SF dougout and in the 6th inning watched a past player poping open a bottle of the bubbly to celebrate......opps they lost.
I think it was Mayes...........
TLP| 11.5.12 @ 5:47PM
What are you wearing?
gene| 11.5.12 @ 10:27AM
Romney will win by a minimum of 5. I am predicting TEN. yes - 10.
The real question is how may seats they will pick up in the Senate and the House. On that I know nothing.
PS. You people who keep having contests in this chain? Start one now. Who will win and by how many points? Also how many Senate seats and House. Also the "even states". I predict these states will go Romney to include Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 10:35AM
Dear Quin: I have it at 315 electoral votes for Romney.
Unless the storms come, this is a beautiful season of the year in Mobile. I envy you the steak you will be consuming tomorrow night at Ruth's Chris while we win. G-d Bless and Keep You and your family in the coming year.
Al Adab| 11.5.12 @ 2:12PM
O/T:
I have Romney at 266 inclusive of FL and Ohio (and I'm nervous about that) so he would need one beyond either a WI(10), IA(6) or CO(9) or NH(4) would work to pull out a win.
Warrior| 11.5.12 @ 8:28PM
PA and WI are in play. This is not as close as any of the polls want you to believe. Remember the primaries in West Virginia and Kentucky where a prisoner and uncommitted received over 40% of the Democrat vote.
BackToBasics| 11.5.12 @ 10:38AM
No democrat voter fraud:
Romney 52%, Obam 45%, others 3% (+ 7 R)
With democrat voter fraud:
Romney 50.5%, Obam 46.5%, others 3% (+ 4 R)
It would be great to see Reid demoted too!
Who Knows?| 11.5.12 @ 11:24AM
Here in southern Oregon, I was surprised to see an American Crossroads ad saying we can't afford four more years of BHO.
Never thought I'd live to see the day when the GOP would waste money in this dark blue state. Maybe there's something going on.
Still, there's no way liberal Portland et al will let Obama lose---by hook or crook
My guess---Obama in Oregon by 5% at least.
Bob Grant| 11.5.12 @ 11:41AM
Yea, but will they actually make the effort to go to the poll and pull the lever for him?
Who Knows?| 11.5.12 @ 11:52AM
Oregon is a state that uses ONLY mailed in or dropped off ballots.
No need to go to a poll and vote.
Not much effort is needed, maybe a stamp is all. Or, if you're like me, you forgo the post office, and saunter off by the local ballot box receptacle to deposit it.
Bob Grant| 11.5.12 @ 12:14PM
The saunterin' and stamp lickin' wont' be there for obama this time.
Chronic obama apathy converging with Romney/Ryan enthusiasm creates a perfect storm, which usually means a few electoral surprises from left field.
Perhaps Oregon?
ColoKat| 11.5.12 @ 11:59AM
I believe that people across America can see that the policies of Obama have failed. Fewer jobs today than 4 years ago, millions more added to food stamps, Obamacare a financial disaster come 2013 with many of the elements already in place costing seniors care (doctors are NOT taking new Medicare/Obamacare patients), TRILLIONS added to the deficit, and on and on. So I just wonder when Oregonians are behind that voting curtain who will they REALLY vote for? You might just be surprised!
Purp| 11.5.12 @ 4:38PM
Not really - the GOP just has so much money, and doesn't know what to do, since their money isn't working in the true battleground states. If it were, they wouldn't be in Minnesota, Oregon or Pennsylvania this late.
I'd be pissed if I was the billionaires watching my hard earned money thrown in the toilet.
let's hope this ends Citizen's United's threat of buying elections.
Der Alte| 11.5.12 @ 12:18PM
I am expecting massive election fraud in Ohio and Wisconsin, which the Democrats have spent years setting up. That's the "Obama firewall" that we keep reading about. The vote numbers in Dem districts will be completely preposterous, if that's what it takes.
The best outcome, in my opinion, would be Obama losing in spite of obvious fraud. Then there might be some serious clean-up measures for the next elections. That might keep the Republicans competitive for the next Presidential election or two.
The long-term trend, though, is that the exploding Hispanic population will turn America into a one-party (Democratic) state. They won't even need to cheat, although they will, just for the fun of it.
Der Alte| 11.5.12 @ 12:23PM
Maybe Romney is, at the last minute, contesting states like Minnesota that he was not supposed to contest because the Dems did not get around to organizing their vote fraud efforts there.
Bob Grant| 11.5.12 @ 12:32PM
"They won't even need to cheat, although they will, just for the fun of it."
Yep, they'll do it just to relive fond, old memories.
BackToBasics| 11.5.12 @ 5:20PM
from your post - "The long-term trend, though, is that the exploding Hispanic population will turn America into a one-party (Democratic) state."
I totally agree about that and I've been concerned about it since the late 1990's. Back then I knew we had time to fix it, but Bush II shoed no inclination to stop the illegasl alien invasion. By 2020 or 2024, I think we will have one-party rule at the national level barring major wars, terrorism, or major economic depression.
itsy_bitsy| 11.5.12 @ 12:54PM
When Obama was an unknown quantity, the press didn't want to know too much about his rather checkered background! What's amazing is that most of them still refuse to publicly acknowledge it today, all the while knowing exactly what this man is! An anti-capitalist (Marxist)!
pomdter| 11.5.12 @ 12:59PM
If the new Twilight movie came out on Nov 6 instead of Nov 16, Romney would win in a landslide. But, alas, I think Quin underestimates the strength in American ignorance. I hope I'm wrong.
Purp| 11.5.12 @ 4:35PM
You aren't.
A strong President was on display last week, and that will make the difference - even though you think he's wrong.
Strong and wrong always wins over weak and right. (Of course, I don't agree that Obama is wrong, but I'm sure you do)
Bob Grant| 11.5.12 @ 5:01PM
Umm yea,
That "cutting through the red tape" speech really was effective.
That's why FEMA - under the "strong" leadership of obama - ran out of water.
Perp, in case you were in jail during your junior and senior years in high school, "strong" is not synonymous with "feckless".
I think you are a bit confused.
Purp| 11.5.12 @ 5:46PM
Feckless is a Fox and Rush term to describe anyone they want to degrade. Truth hasn't a thing to do with it, anymore than 'Socialist', "Muslim", "Lazy", and on and on... trying to paint Obama as horrible and a nothing.
But that "Nothing" is going to whoop Romney's behind and shock him back to the Cayman Islands - which I hear is where GW Bush is hanging out these days, discussing tax evasion techniques. How quaint, isn't it?
If you don't think Obama is a strong leader, you have forgotten GW Bush, haven't you?
FEMA degradation simply reminds us all of Katrina and that debacle for the Republicans - keep it up, it's worth thousands more Democratic votes!
Bob Grant| 11.5.12 @ 6:05PM
Perp,
I actually had at my disposal a - as Your Boy would put it - whole host of words that end in "less" that would appropriately describe our "leader":
Ball less
Gutless
Brainless
Clueless
Birth certificate "LESS"
And yes,
Feckless.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 1:36PM
Here's a opposite view:
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfro...../id/462823
Hope Quin's prediction hold true!!!!!
Drunken Sailor| 11.5.12 @ 2:50PM
Sabato just like to argue with Rasmussen.
TLP| 11.5.12 @ 4:15PM
Sabato is a Liberal Punk.
Nothing more.
Oldefarte| 11.5.12 @ 4:23PM
Agreed, agreed; but I'm amazed that he [of all people] would put his reputation on the line with such an asinine position. Like I said, I won't celebrate until Wednesday, but I have seen/heard NOTHING that makes me think that this is not going to be a Romney victory. To my knowledge, there is zilch/nada on the other side [no national Democrats are even promoting him]. All you see is Jay-Z, the Hollywood idiots and Axelrod/Plouff on TV etc. If Romney does win, Sabato will have major egg on his face for his out-on-the-limb prediction!!!!!!!!!
Pete Esq| 11.7.12 @ 10:26PM
Looks like Sabato and Nate Silver had the last laughs boys.
Dean V| 11.5.12 @ 1:59PM
I believe Romney will have long coattails and bring many new Republican senators with him. I predict the GOP might lose Maine, but will pick up North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia. This would give them a good majority in the Senate and force that senile fool Harry Reid into irrelevancy.
Butch| 11.5.12 @ 3:46PM
Thanks for the optimism, Quin. Made me feel good to read it.
Purp| 11.5.12 @ 4:33PM
So all the Blue States you listed, that have been in Obama's column all election now magically switch to Romney? Seriously?
Romney is having a rough time in Florida, and if he loses there he's finished. Rik Scott and the voter suppression effort has energized Latinos and others in Fla... watch for an Obama win.
If he loses Ohio, which seems VERY likely, he's finished. His lies about Jeep doom him there.
If he loses Virginia, which seems a tossup, he's finished. This is one case where the Senate Race, going to the Democrat will pull the President over the top.
His 'Hail Mary' in Pennsylvania will just serve to bring out more blue Penn Staters to dash his hopes there.
All, in all, I agree with Joe Scarborough - "At this point, I'd bet on Obama" .
Sorry to disappoint all my "friends" here on AS, but there will be no President Romney. The Hurricane was the Hand of God intervening on behalf of our President. Not for Mitt the Twit.
Alej| 11.5.12 @ 7:01PM
They really did call you "Little Shit" on the playground, didn't they. With your keyboard, you can hang around and annoy the big guys and not get the shit slapped out of you.
Neatsfoot| 11.5.12 @ 5:15PM
This piece is completely delusional. It might get the GOP base out to vote. That is, those who don't bother reading any other poll sites.
I live in VA. Very close, but Gary JOhnson and A Rep Goode threaten to take away the state from Romney.
Purp is right, Scarborough is right.
We both promise Obama will leave office no later than January 20 2017.
Ralph Novy| 11.7.12 @ 5:44AM
Bingo. Well put, Neatsfoot.
HBealeJr| 11.5.12 @ 5:24PM
Great article Mr. Hillyer. After wasting valuable time reading an article by a Mr. Olsen on NRO. Your writing has returned me to my usual cheery, conservative state. I am heading home for a good cigar and dinner. Ready to awake in the morning to vote for the next President of these United States..Mitt Romney.
obadiah| 11.5.12 @ 5:43PM
Fox News reports on despair in the Obama camp. Michelle, Malia and Sasha have been seen in tears. Top advisors are apparently preparing resumes. "Why bother voting" is heard in the corridors.
Rhoetus| 11.5.12 @ 8:33PM
Obama should defect to North Korea.
Americanpatriot| 11.5.12 @ 5:44PM
Word is the liberal media is going to call this thing for Obama early to stop people from voting for Romney. Romney is going to be winning but they plan on stopping people from voting by saying Obama is winning. Get the word out so people vote anyway.
Bob Grant| 11.5.12 @ 6:12PM
Good point. One I completely forgot.
They've got two cards up their sleeve:
(A) Call states early for obama to disenfranchise Governor Romney votes
And if that doesn't work
(B) Steal a couple of Battle Ground States by brute voter fraud - Chicago Style!!!
Please people for the love of G*d if you haven't voted please do, and bring a handful of people with you!!!
Kingofthenet| 11.5.12 @ 7:01PM
I just got power on here on the Jersey Shore, To Quin, I say FAT CHANCE, and after I take a shower to freshen myself from my week old grunge, I will be as fresh as a new born baby, your Headaches NeoCons will last FOUR MORE YEARS!
Occam's Tool| 11.5.12 @ 7:36PM
Dear King:
I am sorry, but Elric will explain on Wednesday how his Demonsword was always more evil than you. BOHICA, prepare for the RAM!
Rhoetus| 11.5.12 @ 8:32PM
Romney takes 400 electoral votes easily - maybe 500. Bank on it.
Davis white| 11.5.12 @ 10:22PM
Of the last 30 polls from all sources in Ohio, 28 show Obama winning. Of the two outliers, one was sponsored by Citizens United. Is that a trend? If so, Obama wold have to win one other state to reach 271. How does that comport with your confidence level?
Mark Levin| 11.5.12 @ 11:19PM
dead on Quin....GOP must turnout big tomorrow
Kingofthenet| 11.6.12 @ 12:33AM
Nate Silver's LAST forecast has President Obama at 92% chance of winning, Ross Sell your Intrade shares ASAP!
Ralph Novy| 11.7.12 @ 5:41AM
... and Goodbye, Editor Hillyer
(one might hope)
Bloopville| 11.7.12 @ 1:35PM
Republicans are realists. There was a lot of cool-aide drinking, this time.
Pelleas| 11.7.12 @ 4:15PM
...OOOPS....
So much for Repug crystal-ball gazing......
ROTFLMAO..!
LOSERS!!
Pete Esq| 11.7.12 @ 10:19PM
Perhaps next time you wish to try to call an election, you might start by looking at the polls with a clear eye and not with hopeful blinders firmly in place. Anyone reading the polls from the battlegrounds had to know that Obama was polling very well in all of them. Too many bought the idea that Obama's supporters were unenthused and that the electorate was going to be different this year. Well it wasn't, and it is not going to be different than today in the future. It is going to be more and more diverse, and less white. It is time to wake up.
Seek| 11.8.12 @ 12:00PM
Oh, yeah. This turned out to be an accurate prediction -- NOT! I hereby bestow upon Quin Hillyer the Dick Morris Prize of 2012 for premature prognostication beyond the call of duty.
Mnestheus| 1.6.13 @ 1:18AM
Quin's mastery of psephology rivals Tom Bethell's skill as a climate scientist.