This election’s X-factor may be a gift to Romney from the
mainstream media. It is the suppression of public expression of
support for him. However, while pre-election polls may not have
been fully recording it, Election Day may finally capture Romney’s
true support level for the first time — to Obama’s ultimate
detriment.
If this theory of media-suppressed Romney support sounds
unlikely, think again. The enormous fluidity of Independents’
support has been the hallmark of the last two national
elections.
In 2008, Obama carried Independents 51% to 43%, en route to a
6.3% popular vote victory margin over McCain. In 2010, Independents
swung heavily rightward, carrying Republicans to a stunning
victory.
Current polling shows Independents again favoring Republicans.
According to a 10/31 CBS News/NYT, a 10/30 NPR, and a
10/30 Pew Research Center poll, Romney has an average 11% lead
among Independents. This is the reason this race is so
close.
Despite this clear lead among Independents, it is still quite
possible their support of Romney is undercounted.
For one thing, evidence of an 11% Independent advantage for
Romney is still well below 2010’s Republican margin. For another,
there is a logical reason why this is happening.
The media’s fawning coverage of Obama from 2008 until today has
always signaled their “correct choice” when it comes to candidates.
It was not Hillary or McCain in 2008, and it assuredly is not
Romney today.
People know the conclusions that the media want them to reach.
They also know the answers they are supposed to give. For both
reasons, they may still be giving that answer to pollsters now,
suppressing Romney’s support.
Not until people had some seemingly valid way to “cover” their
inclination did they feel comfortable being explicit in it. The
debates certainly gave some such cover. However, the anonymity of
the Election Day voting booth could give decidedly more.
Such voters may also not be being candid with friends —
friends, who like them, supported Obama four years ago. Peer
pressure is real, especially in circles where Obama is still
publicly lionized.
Such voters may also not be being candid with themselves. They
may have had growing doubts they could avoid prior to November 6 —
doubts made doubly difficult because of their support for Obama in
2008. Now they will face them in the privacy of the polling
place.
We know some of this is taking place because the election is so
close — something 2008 never was. And we know that media coverage
matters — why else would total campaign spending on this
presidential race have almost reached $1 billion in just this year
alone? It is entirely plausible that the visible movement we have
seen toward Romney is still not its full extent.
One thing we do know: Any positive surprise on Election Day is
going to be for Romney, not for Obama.
Four years ago, Obama got new voters to the polls when he stood
broadly for “Change.” After four years, “Change” has become
status quo, for all but diehard Obama supporters. Once he
was a blank slate upon which voters could write what they wanted.
Four years in office has filled that slate.
Certainly, Obama’s voter turnout operation can be impressive and
cannot be underestimated. But while it can perhaps squeeze the same
relative amount of juice from a smaller orange, it can’t make the
orange bigger.
Ironically, the media that helped make Obama, may well be what
unmakes him on November 6. It may have been masking the true level
of Romney’s support all along. If so, it may have inadvertently
influenced how Obama and his campaign addressed this
election.
Had they known this race was already close, would Obama’s
ill-fated first debate performance have been prepared for
differently — as it was after-the-fact when it became clear that
Obama had a fight on his hands? We will never know. But on
Election Day we all may get a surprise — most especially the media
that did the most to create it.
