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Special Report
Pennsylvania and the Reagan Pivot
Is the Keystone State doing what it did in 1980 — and is it alone?
(Page 2 of 5)
Let’s do the Pennsylvania Polka with that elusive, alluring political attraction known as the Reagan Pivot.
In 1980 Jimmy Carter was supposedly wiping the floor with Ronald Reagan. Nationally the Gallup Poll in October gave Carter an 8 point lead of 47%-39%. On October 10, the New York Times/CBS poll reported that while Reagan had a 2 point lead over Carter in Pennsylvania Reagan was actually not doing well. Reagan’s Pennsylvania fundraising was weak, insisted the Times, which in turn meant the $700,000 budget for the Reagan phone bank operation had to be shaved to $400,000. Not to mention Reagan was trailing Carter in union households and getting absolutely whomped in Philadelphia 52%-15%.
Reagan’s anemic numbers in Pennsylvania were having an effect on Arlen Specter’s Senate race as well. The Times noted Specter was far behind Democrat Pete Flaherty, trailing by 11 points at 47%-36%.
What happened?
On Election Day Reagan carried Pennsylvania — by seven points. Specter won as well — not to be defeated for re-election for 30 years.
Which is to say, somewhere along the line there was a “Reagan Pivot” in Pennsylvania.
A definable point that was unseen and unmeasured in the polls — both in Pennsylvania and nationally. The Gallup October poll that had Reagan losing nationally 47%-39% had, by election day, turned into a 50.7%-41% Reagan rout.
Pennsylvania is frequently cast these days as a “blue state” — and that is wrong. The late Senator Arlen Specter — he who was written off in that 1980 October poll and who was no slouch at understanding the state he represented in the Senate for five terms (the longest serving U.S. Senator in the state’s history) — once insisted to me that Pat Toomey could not possibly win a Senate seat in the state because he was “too conservative.” Specter was wrong, with Toomey not simply driving the Senator from the Republican Party but going on to defeat Democrat Joe Sestak for Specter’s Senate seat.
Pennsylvania is not simply repeatedly competitive. There is a politically structural reason for that competiveness. As the Wall Street Journal’s Matthew Kaminski noted yesterday, of the state’s 67 counties, 52 are controlled by the GOP. Ditto 12 of the 19 congressional districts, both the State House and State Senate, plus the governorship and Specter’s old Senate seat now held by Toomey. It is instinctively and historically conservative, even when electing Democrats. Toomey’s Senate seatmate from Pennsylvania is the pro-life Robert P. Casey, Jr., son of the late governor who was once denied a speaking slot at the Democratic National Convention because of his conservative — read Catholic — views on abortion.
A look back at the last five decades of presidential politics in Pennsylvania — 13 presidential elections — is instructive.
Rule Number One? Philadelphia always votes for the Democrat. Once upon a time Philadelphia was a Republican city — a Civil War-era fact of life that vanished in the 1940s. From JFK to Barack Obama the city has gone for the Democrats 13 out of 13 times.
But the key question is: by how much? The fact of presidential political life in Pennsylvania is that regardless of its size and its overwhelming tilt to Democrats, Philadelphia in fact is more enamored of some Democrats running for president than others. This goes double for the rest of the state, which has one million more registered Democrats.
When that lack of enthusiasm is manifest in the numbers, in the turnout — Republicans can carry the state in a blink.
And when a Republican candidate has a particular appeal to Philadelphians, regardless of their party registration they will abandon their party.
While I call this the “Reagan Pivot” — in fact this problem for Democrats began to emerge not in 1980 with Ronald Reagan but in 1972. The year Richard Nixon was challenged by the now-recently-deceased South Dakota Senator George McGovern.
About the Author
Jeffrey Lord is a former Reagan White House political director and author. He writes from Pennsylvania at jlpa1@aol.com.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (46) | Leave a comment
More Articles by Jeffrey Lord
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TLP| 11.1.12 @ 7:37AM
Wow. This all sounds so familiar.
I know this guy who's been writing this for a while, now.
He's been telling anyone who'll listen that PEOPLE WANNA WORK. Coal Miners, and Pipe Fitters. Welders and Riggers. Drillers and Carpenters. Hundreds of Thousands of Private Sector Union Rank and File in the Energy Sector, plus the Thousands of Ancillary Jobs that spring up around the little Boom Towns that spring up around these Work sites.
He's been talking about all of the people who still NEED TO WORK, because that's who they are. They still have that Hunter/Gatherer Instinct inside of them, and they still hold on to the Old Ways, best described in The Godfather - "Any Man who can't provide for his family, is not a Man."
He's been talking about all of the NON UNION Workers, who were summarily tossed out of GM and Chrysler, on their Asses. All of the Car Dealership Owners, and their Employees who received the same treatment from this Son of a Marxist and a Communist.
All of the people who would've had JOBS, building the XL Pipeline, and all of the Thousands who have LOST THEIR JOBS, in the Coal Industry.
It seems that, at least one person was listening.
A. C. Santore| 11.1.12 @ 9:53AM
Absolutely right on the button, TLP!
Jeffrey Lord is as competent and accurate a commentary as there is, especially here at The American Spectator.
I trust his judgment. As a lifelong Pennsylvania, I think he's right.
TLP| 11.1.12 @ 4:12PM
You realize that that "One Guy" I was talking about was ME, right?
Lord is Way Late to the Party.
TLP| 11.1.12 @ 4:22PM
Ignore Lord.
Listen to Me.
Come to The Contest, Tomorrow.
Joellen| 11.1.12 @ 2:32PM
Hey Tim & All - Joellen from the Jersey Shore - Pray for us over here and make sure the election goes through Nov 6th. I'll try and check in as much as possible. Again, keep praying.
TLP| 11.1.12 @ 4:23PM
Contest, tommorow.
Subject: The Media, and the Numbers.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 11.1.12 @ 4:39PM
You are in my prayers, Joellen. Which county are you in?
Pecos Pete| 11.1.12 @ 9:08AM
Tim: The nice elderly people in Michael Moore's advertisement don't seem to get it:
"First, it's the 97-year old woman threatening to burn this "motherf***** down." Once everyone's slapping their knees laughing at her, the 75-year old lady says she'll "c*** punch" Romney in the "nut sack" if he wins. Just in case people don't find those two ladies hilarious enough, an 85-year old man guarantees that even after he's dead, he and his deceased pals will keep a close eye on Romney voters having sex, especially with relatives."
Now that's a political advertisement for Obama that ought to send a thrill up the MSM's leg(s).
For the Village Idiots who don't believe the above could ever come from the saintly democrats and Obama by their friendly Michael, here's the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f.....17fWth3YgA
Albert Constantine Jr.| 11.1.12 @ 9:36AM
I saw this inane video. Now if you really wanted to threaten or intimidate people, forcing them to watch Michael Moore have sex could be a game changer.
TLP| 11.1.12 @ 9:41AM
Go look at the picture I just sent you.
I think she was in the Commercial.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 11.1.12 @ 9:53AM
I just sent you a reply that said the same thing (great minds, etc.).
TLP| 11.1.12 @ 4:14PM
Shirt Size/Colour.
Remember: It's a Cotton Shirt.
RSVP.
TLP| 11.1.12 @ 4:15PM
You won't be sorry.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 11.1.12 @ 4:35PM
XXL if available, XL if not (Black or Blue preference, but will take any). Its also in the e-mail.
TLP| 11.1.12 @ 7:16PM
I will send you the Blue one, Fatso.
RJ| 11.1.12 @ 10:17AM
What are the betting odds that Republicans will demonstrate and riot in front of a Democratic field office over this video? Does anyone think, Obama, Mrs. Clinton and Ambassador Rice will apologize to the world for the video and describe it as disgusting? Of course not. They always show more respect for Islamic terrorists than American citizens; a fact that is not lost on most American voters.
KyMouse| 11.1.12 @ 11:19AM
Who finds those Moore commercials funny, much less inspirational? Three-year-olds and 13-year-olds who find dirty language hilarious? Elderly people who think that it's high time their generation stopped valuing civility and good manners?
Al Adab| 11.1.12 @ 3:41PM
Interesting that The Left thinks we should be impressed (or is it intimidated?) by a group of foul mouthed geriatrics. The threat of violence and personal assaults should actually warn us more of the world The Left would like to see. Remember the brown shirts were around to stiffle dissent and "dissent is the highest form of patriotism" isn't it?
Albert Constantine Jr.| 11.1.12 @ 9:34AM
In the summer of 1980 I was vacationing in Wildwood, NJ along with a few friends (I was the only registered Republican and Reagan supporter). We were spending our afternoons at The Barefoot Bar, listening to the band play their covers of the Kinks, the Doors and other classic rock popular in our demographic. The hostages were in their 8th month of captivity in Tehran, and draft registration for our age cohort had been reinstated. The band gave a brief shout out to the veterans and those who were serving, which during the 70s was generally unheard of in the Northeast US.
A large cluster of residents of Northeast and South Philadelphia had representatives of several generations who were also enjoying their summer vacation in the same spot. I had already taken my physical at the Armed Forces Entrance Examination Station in Philly, and my recruiter’s office was then located at the end of South Broad Street at the Philadelphia Navy Yard.
As we all cheered America’s armed forces, the matriarch of one of these families, who gave every appearance of being a classic demographic Democrat voter, told us “Don’t fight for Carter” over and over in her Fishtown accent.
Though Carter was ex officio commander-in-chief, I had never considered joining to fight for him, as much as I was to serve my country. Still, it was my first hint that his support was eroding, and that Reagan might win.
I hope Mr. Lord is correct.
Bob K| 11.1.12 @ 10:11AM
If the Republicans in the northern tier of the state and down through it's center come out to vote, PA will go Republican.
Mr. Lord is right. There are too many democrats in the rest of the state who will not vote for Obama under any circumstance.
Nor for that matter, Bob Casey for Senator. Tom Smith, from western PA, is making a real run for Casey's seat. Casey has been forced to spend lots of TV money on attack ads against Smith. Smith has effectively answered them with his own ads which are much more believable, and what is really unique about them is that he is in them actually responding. And he is good at it! He actually has his octogenarian mother in one with him while they respond together to Casey's ad that he and the Republicans will destroy Social Security and Medicare! It's a classic!
Obama and the democrats had a warning shot fired across their bow in the midterm 2010 elections and they ignored it. They could have tacked out of harm's way but chose not to. The full broadside is coming in this election.
squalis| 11.1.12 @ 10:26AM
I certainly hope Mr. Lord is correct, but all these predictions are ultimately meaningless. We will know in a few days.
Anthony| 11.1.12 @ 10:30AM
Well Jeff, the picture of Ronald Reagan helping to get scum like Arlen Specter elected is a bit of a letdown. Did you have to remind us what the cat dragged in?
I suspect a Romney victory is going to have a similar consequence. More RINO trolls to deal with.
Oh well, as I said yesterday, first we get rid of the Muslim Marxist and his party then we deal with the R establishment.
So little time, so many asses to kick.
Who Knows?| 11.1.12 @ 10:58AM
Nice exposition of the Pennsylvania political story---so many details, so many counties, so much nuance.
My mind is blown, when I stretch this analytical trip across the fruited plains, one of the 57 states at a time!
It would be time for political orgasm, if the Keystone state did go for Romney. I won’t be betting anything on this result, though.
It’s the odds, stupid!
While the trend is going Romney’s way, and more counties are Republican than not, etc, we’ll always have Philadelphia, my dears.
From the far edge of the continent, here in Oregon, for me when I read about Pennsylvania and elections, the “big picture” is all that matters. There are the vote enforcers, outside polling places, ready to break your kneecaps if you fail to go for Obama. There is the ballot stuffing.
Yes---bottom line: Pennsylvania is in the control of the Democrats, AS A WHOLE, because the system will always create enough “ballots” for them to win.
Intrade has it 70% Obama for Ohio. I couldn’t find the odds for Penn, but since they don’t even consider it a battleground state, no doubt there are too few people willing to bet it will go for Romney.
Realistically, then, there’s probably less than a 5% chance Penn will go for Mitt.
I hope it does, but….
In a week, we’ll all forget about this article.
Next?
KennesawJack| 11.1.12 @ 12:26PM
Imtrade is in the tank for Obamarx so I'm not sure how much credence I'd lend to their numbers.
TLP| 11.1.12 @ 4:20PM
Give them none.
They're just the Polling Equivilent of the AARP.
Believe it or not?
I take Dick Morris at his word.
LANDSLIDE!
Bob K| 11.1.12 @ 6:11PM
Pennsylvania has 1 million more registered democrats than republicans but the republicans hold the Governor's office and have the majority in both houses of the legislature. Forget the big picture! It boils down to one state at a time. You work on Oregon, OK?
There is nothing to enforce in Philadelphia. It is solidly democrat. Do you think that the enforcers will take them to the polls at gun point to MAKE them vote? Most of them are too lazy to go to the polls or PA would have been solidly democrat for decades. It wasn't!
It is hardly the liberal state that Oregon is with it's death panels and all
Do you have a living will so they can decide to pull the plug early on you?
Swamper| 11.1.12 @ 12:37PM
I live 30 miles from Scranton and you could not steal an Obama/Biden sign if you wanted to. There are none. The only Casey signs are anti-Casey. There is no enthusiasm here for Casey or Obama, but the Romney/Ryan people are pumped and vocal. We tried HOPE now lets try CHANGE R&R 12
djn1313| 11.1.12 @ 12:52PM
I hope the voters in PA and OH come to their senses and vote this bum out. He has cost the nation millions of jobs with his wasteful spending on his "green" agenda, he refuses to develop our domestic energy resources making us dependent on foreign energy, and he watched as four Americans died because of his close alliance with our enemy, the muslim brotherhood terrorists, that he armed and funded with US taxpayers dollars.
Katie| 11.1.12 @ 1:11PM
I agree with Mr. Lord. I live in Gettysburg which is awash with Romney yard signs - except in the area around Gettysburg College. There are also some Obama yard signs in neighborhoods around town but once out of town Romney signs predominate. I work in Philly. Predictably, I see more Obama signs and bumper stickers but a surprisingly large number for Romney (mirabile dictu!!) Also more Romney signs along the Main Line, which is not as Republican as this article would have you think. Lots of professors from the many universities live along the train line and we all know how they vote. Today at lunch the TV was on at work. I saw one pro-Casey commercial (which included blatant lies - e.g Smith wants to end Medicare within 2 years), 2 for Tom Smith, 2 for Romney and none for Obama in the space of 45 minutes. I live in hope
Al Adab| 11.1.12 @ 3:54PM
The great divide is not between states, but rather between the cities and the more rural areas. The mass urban areas of the country are completly beholden to government for sustenance while the rest of the country wishes to maintain their self-reliance. Trouble is, all the votes are in the cities. Many states, Illinois for example, PA another, are controlled by one or two cities and the voters therein.
Bob Grant| 11.1.12 @ 7:16PM
Perhaps suburbia around Philly will vote for Romney and cancel out some of the inner city areas that vote for obama by default.
You know, those areas that seem the fill up the pages in the metro areas. And I'm not talking about marriage announcements either.
All Romney has to do is cancel out Philadelphia proper.
MRD| 11.1.12 @ 2:26PM
I am a former resident of North East Pa, My retired parents still live there and I return often. They are the quitesential "Reagan Democrats" as though registered Democrats they have voted Republican as the Democrats have marched steadily to the left especially culturally. I really hope Mr. Lord is correct. It would do my heart good to see my old state go Republican and help save the country especially since I am trapped in icy blue Delaware, known mostly for the ongoing embarassment occupying the VP slot. That said I am afraid this is a lot of wishful thinking. PA in the RCP average has Obama 4.6 % up. There is no poll I know of that shows Romney up. I wish there was! I recognize that Mr. Lord is making the argument that some of the voters moving to Romney are not being included in the polls, but this seems to me an assertion with no evidence. It seems PA is a lot more securely in Romney's camp than Florida is in ours ( RCP has it Romney up by 1.2%, but no recent poll shows Obama up).
I do not wish to be a doomsayer, just realistic. Still if you are in PA and read this, I hope you prove me wrong. For the sake of having an USA left in 4 years vote and take a couple people with you to elect Romney. Obama is a menance to the USA as we know it.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 11.1.12 @ 4:37PM
"I am trapped in icy blue Delaware, known mostly for the ongoing embarassment occupying the VP slot"
While I share your chagrin about the VPOTUS and Delaware’s blue voting record of the last 20 years, please allow me to briefly dissect the state’s demographics. Kent and Sussex Counties are majority conservative, and have a strong tendency to vote Republican, particularly at the Presidential level. New Castle County, with more than half of the state population, is majority Democrat. To the extent that there is lower voter enthusiasm among Democrats, a Republican stands a chance in a state wide race, which is why Tom Wagner has been winning elections since 1990 (his election is the non-Presidential election year).
An interesting race this year will be the Insurance Commissioners race, which will pit non-party favorite Democrat incumbent Karen Weldin-Stewart against Republican Benjamin Mobley. To the extent that anyone is paying attention to the contest, as Delaware’s population is about 22% black, to see how that section of the electorate responds to Mobley (who is also black) as opposed to party identification (and Weldin-Stewart was the winner of the primary, though not the Party’s supported candidate, despite her incumbency) will be an interesting bellwether.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 11.1.12 @ 4:37PM
Of course, for Republicans to begin to win regularly in Delaware on a state wide basis, the state party will need to get its act together and mobilize, which is not something it has been able to do successfully in New Castle County during the last few decades.
KennesawJack| 11.1.12 @ 5:28PM
As an aside, glad Rehoboth made it throuh relatively unscathed. We still go up there in the summer. The best beach and boardwalk in Del. not to mention Grotto's Pizza.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 11.1.12 @ 5:59PM
Grotto's uses a blend of cheddar and mozzarella cheese, which while greasy, gives their pizza a sharp taste that is unique. For years, you could only get it on the Boardwalk, but they now have many additional locations around Lewes, Dewey Beach and even up in Wilmington.
KennesawJack| 11.1.12 @ 8:35PM
I'm into health food so.....greasy is good.
Bob K| 11.2.12 @ 12:20AM
Grotto originated in Harvey's Lake, PA up in NE PA.
Bob K| 11.2.12 @ 12:21AM
It is still there.
MRD| 11.1.12 @ 2:28PM
Correction to above I mean PA seems securely in Obama's camp compared to Florida in ours ( ie.. Romney's)
JP| 11.1.12 @ 3:06PM
The Democrat enclaves more and more resemble the urban fiefdoms of the Middle Ages. The Dems may rule the major metro areas, but little else.
Talk about Gated Communities. Their urban firewalls will eventually crumble.
Al Adab| 11.1.12 @ 3:59PM
Back in 1968 the election was close and Mayor Daly of Chicago held back the votes from Cook County in order to be able to adjust the numbers necessary to deliver Illinois to Humphrey. The republicans in response held back Lake and Dupage counties. It wasn't until Wednesday morning that Daly finally broke and released the votes. Rahm Emmanuel. What is the GOP prepared to do around the county (Illinois isn't in play) to prevent such things this year? It isn't the GOP who needs to steal this election no matter what Michael Moore's folks think.
Butch| 11.1.12 @ 3:31PM
McGovern and Carter were white. Obama is black. If Romney is to carry PA, he will have to it with whites alone. Blacks will vote 95 percent plus for Obama, unemployment rates be damned.
soljerblue| 11.1.12 @ 10:56PM
I worked as a broadcast reporter in Philadelphia from 1965 to 1982; covered local and state politics, campaigns, candidates, as well as police a nd fire. In those days, it was a pretty good rule of thumb that a candidate who wanted to win PA statewide had to come out of Philadelphia & the burbs with at least 200K votes. Less than that, and it got pretty dicey. I haven't been back in many years, so maybe that rule of thumb doesn't hold anymore. But what I remember about Philly's neighborhoods, and the northeastern counties, squares with what I read in Mr. Lord's report. And I was working there in '80 and saw the shift that he calls the Reagan pivot.
Two points I'd like to make here. First, that Lord seems to feel that 2012, at least in PA, has more in common with 1980 than 2008. I agree. Second, I'm thinking that the anger at Obama and Democrats and their broken promises plus Obamacare that caused the 2010 tsunami hasn't dissipated and has probably gotten worse. As a corrollary to that, Pennsylvania has a high number of elderly residents -- many of whom, like their contemporaries elsewhere, understand that a major thrust of Obamacare is to clean them out of the population as quickly as possible. I don't know if Lord is correct, but he's a Pennsylvanian who obviously knows his state -- and his analysis squares very well with what I remember from 17 years in Philly and two more in central PA.
John II| 11.2.12 @ 12:01AM
Yet again, not a single troll on this thread, so far, and it's pretty late.
My theory continues to be born out by the evidence. Less precisely detailed or focused post--trolls and misery. More precisely detailed and focused post--no trolls and happiness.
Mr. Micawber, call your office.
bison cookie| 11.3.12 @ 12:21PM
5 GENERALS & ADMIRALS SUPPORT OBAMA – HOW MANY FOR ROMNEY? ONLY ABOUT 300!. Barack Obama’s campaign released a new ad featuring General Colin Powell from the Bush administration declaring his support for Obama. It’s a 30 second ad talking mostly about economic issues but it’s clearly an attempt to show that Obama has support from the military. How much support does …READ MORE: http://bwcentral.org/2012/11/5.....about-300/