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Political Hay
Defying the Death Watchers
The Tea Party’s remarkable victory in the House.
“Bring out yer dead!”
The left spent the last two years shouting the famous Monty Python line at the Tea Party, determined to infect the movement with cadaverous gloom. By mid-2011 the press had started a death watch. “Tea Party’s heyday could be nearing end,” warned the Hill. “Tea Party movement looks stalled,” exhorted ABC News.
A poll by CBS/New York Times (and when are they ever not reliable?) alleged that Tea Partiers were less popular than Democrats, Muslims, and atheists. Also Stalinists, Imperial Stormtroopers, and the Jersey Shore cast. Loony Tea Party ideas, declared serious people with pale faces wearing suits, had finally been stopped — and in the nick of time.
But despite the death knells, Republicans in the House of Representatives, swelled by Tea Party legislators who flooded Congress in 2010, are poised to keep their majority this year.
And the margin may be wide. Real Clear Politics counts 195 seats as safe Republican, compared to 154 as safe Democrat. Throw in likely and leaning seats, and Republicans keep the lead 226-183. That leaves 26 toss-up races. And while twice as many toss-ups are for incumbent Republicans than Democrats, Democrats could win every toss-up and still not control the House.
The likely scenario is that Democrats pick up a pittance of seats, John Boehner keeps his gavel, and the House remains a legislative idea shop for conservatives.
The lower chamber has gotten almost no attention. There’s far more froth coming from the presidential race and the Senate. And with vacancies inevitable on the 5-4 Supreme Court, the entire federal government is looking competitive this election, except for the Tea Party House.
“Bring out yer… wait, what?”
The Washington Post noticed this over the weekend. “Such a result,” the Post observed, “will have defied the chorus of prognosticators who saw so many of these inexperienced freshmen as beneficiaries of blind political luck — swept up in the 2010 wave of sentiment against Obama and presumably poised to be swept back to sea when the tide went out this November.”
That turning of the tides has been the conventional wisdom since November 3, 2010. It’s become an article of faith in the media that the Tea Party is the weak underbelly of the GOP and that Responsible Republicans must heroically Save Their Party by distancing themselves from The Extreme Right, The Far Right, and the Party’s Crazy House Wing.
People tend to vote for ideologies or parties in the House, and candidates in the Senate. Which means that voters are about to send extremist, wild-eyed, defund-everything-in-sight Republican right-wingism back to the House this fall (and after the left tried to warn them!). The narrative is about to fall apart.
The Post tries to console Democrats by claiming that several high-profile Tea Party lawmakers are “fighting for their political lives.” Among these stragglers are Rep. Michele Bachmann (leading by 6 or 9 depending on the poll), Rep. Allen West (leading by 9 or 1), and Rep. Steve King (leading by 3, 2, or 7). The only one in serious trouble is Rep. Joe Walsh, who won his Illinois district by less than 300 votes in 2010 and has an unusually strong Democrat opponent this time around.
“Bring out yer dead…maybe? Please?”
Part of this is due to redistricting. The Tea Party’s victory in 2010 allowed it to redraw the congressional maps, shoring up Republicans and exposing already-vulnerable Blue Dog Democrats.
And some concern about the Tea Party is borne out by polling which shows a plummet in the movement’s popularity, especially after the debt ceiling negotiations last year.
About the Author
Matt Purple is The American Spectator’s assistant managing editor.
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Pecos Pete| 10.31.12 @ 6:48AM
The Tea Party is, as the author states, a movement. It is not a political party. The Tea Party is not a wild eyed far right political party. Instead it is a movement of patriot citizens who recognize the disaster of continued deficit spending and illegal extraordinary federal intervention in the freedom of the citizenry. The Tea Party is the silent majority who, from time to time, rise up in righteous indignation and elect federal legislators who are willing to defend freedom.
Sean| 10.31.12 @ 6:57AM
The Tea Party will have victory in the House when the House develops a back bone and cuts spending. I really don't see that happening anytime soon.
Gary B| 10.31.12 @ 7:15AM
Sean,
Right... and John Boehner keeping his gavel is very bad news indeed. He's as close to worthless as one can get. Maybe Romney will give him a swift kick.
Mike G| 10.31.12 @ 7:34AM
You're right! Even if the Repubs take the Senate, Mitch McConnell is just another John Boner, not a conservative, and beholden to the old party hacks.
Jack in Wi| 10.31.12 @ 7:18AM
Sean: I agree. You still have the old bulls of the party calling the shots. Then they stuck us with people like Tommy Thompson here in Wi. Orrin Hatch in Utah, and George Allen in Virginia. They are about as far from the Tea Party as possible. The fight to get the Republican Party to where it should be, is still a lot of hard work ahead.
Gary B| 10.31.12 @ 11:10AM
Jack, The answer is to primary their butts outta' there. Same for Romney if he rolls over. One key decision will be Secretary of State. If he doesn't choose John Bolton, then you know the fix is in.
Jack in Wi| 10.31.12 @ 12:05PM
Bolton is the last guy I want for Secretary of State. He is totally unconfirmable in the Senate. The Democrats and plenty of Republicans will join in any fillibuster to stop him. I doubt if he could come close to 50 votes. Neoconservatives have nothing to do with real Tea Party principles. They love big wars and big government to fight them. Let them go back to the Trotskyite Communists from whence they came.
Skippy| 10.31.12 @ 2:09PM
Bolton isn't a Jew, so he can't be a Neocon.
But you can hate him as if he were, Jackboot.
Jack in Wi| 10.31.12 @ 4:49PM
There are plenty of Non Jewish Neoconservatives. Bolton is one of the more obnoxious. Others I can think of off hand are William Bennett, George Numayr, Jean Kirkpatrick, Dick Cheney, etc. Most of them are bought and paid for by the Israeli Mafia.
RCV| 10.31.12 @ 10:31PM
Shred of evidence, Jack? Or is that too much to ask?
spike59| 11.1.12 @ 6:07AM
Most of them are bought and paid for by the Israeli Mafia.
----------------------------------
ahhhhhhh, there you go, Jacquelyn; i KNEW when i read Skippy's post, that you would INSTANTLY go into full neo-Nazi mode
spike59| 11.1.12 @ 6:07AM
Most of them are bought and paid for by the Israeli Mafia.
----------------------------------
ahhhhhhh, there you go, Jacquelyn; i KNEW when i read Skippy's post, that you would INSTANTLY go into full neo-Nazi mode
Occam's Tool| 11.2.12 @ 8:00PM
Always nice to hear from Jack when he comes up for air from sucking off jihadists.
ebonystone| 10.31.12 @ 2:40PM
" the old bulls of the party"
More like the old oxen.
Rhoetus| 11.1.12 @ 8:42AM
Water Buffalo or Wildebeest
FL_Libertarian| 10.31.12 @ 8:23PM
The House passed a budget and the Senate for OVER 1400 days have refused to pass a budget.
Intelligent Design| 10.31.12 @ 8:19AM
The Tea Party seeks to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution, so naturally Obama and his fellow Demo-Socialists hate it.
RCV| 10.31.12 @ 10:39PM
Except for those parts they don't like, such as the Equal Protection Clause, Due Process rights for accused terrorists, religious freedom for American Muslims, constitutional privacy rights, etc. etc.
DRA2012| 10.31.12 @ 11:49PM
RCV, do you actually know anything about criminal law?
Accused Terrorists (who aren't American citizens) HAVE no due process rights (they are only entitled to swift execution under the Geneva Convention as enemy combatants out of uniform). There is no legal mandate to move these people to Git-mo, that was only developed as a way to gather intel from enemy combatants.
American Muslims have been openly practising their "faith" all across the US (right up until the point where their cultural mores such as "honour" killings, or "blasphemy" against the prophet lead them to commit (and be prosecuted) for murder, or their insistence that Sharia law subsume Constitutional law, which should lead them to be prosecuted for treason).
The precedence has been established in court that there ARE no explicit Constitutional protections of privacy, excepting that non-public privacy can only be violated by explicit court order.
BTW, it is the Liberals in the Obama admin (not the T.E.A. Party) that are maintaining "Death Lists" and using UAVs to murder American citizens w/out trial, or setting up roadblocks to arbitrarily stop and search citizens.
aware| 11.1.12 @ 6:07AM
Before you lecture someone on "criminal law" maybe you should bone up on it yourself. The 5th amendment says "No PERSON....shall be ...deprived of LIFE, liberty, or property.. without due process".
It means anybody in our possession, not just citizens. The Geneva Convention does NOT supersede the Constitution.
It's not just "liberals" ushering in a Police State, it's YOU, too. You are playing the same game they do.
And the 4th Amendment says "The right of the people to be SECURE in their persons, houses, papers, and effects..." If this isn't protection of privacy what is?
Enjoy the nation you are doing your part to bring about, where to be accused is to be guilty. I'll bet you're a lawyer, right?(and a neocon Imperialist)
Damn Brown Shirts.
Rhoetus| 11.1.12 @ 8:44AM
The 16th Amendment destroyed the 4th Amendment.
RCV| 11.1.12 @ 10:14PM
I graduated from Stanford Law School, practiced constitutional law for 35 years and know a hell of a lot more about criminal law and constitutional law. You obviously know absolutely nothing about US Supreme Court precedents (not "precedence") on constitutional rights of privacy, due process rights of accused terrorists or freedom of religion. Try to learn something before you speak about it,
Nancy in NC| 10.31.12 @ 8:33AM
As a member (and chair) of a local tea party group, I can tell you the tea party is very much alive. We are working to educate our people, and are making headway in local and state politics. It takes time for a movement to fully materialize, and it doesn't end with one or two election cycles.
We may lose a few battles, but we will still keep fighting. We think Freedom is worth fighting for.
JimP| 10.31.12 @ 9:00AM
Thank you, Nancy.
Al Adab| 10.31.12 @ 2:06PM
Keep working Nancy, we desperately need those NC electoral votes.
Gary B| 10.31.12 @ 8:58PM
Nancy,
Gary North predicts the Tea Party will make great progress in local races throughout the country, as he feel liberalism is on the run. Building from the bottom up is great.
Thank you for your great work!
soljerblue| 11.1.12 @ 12:41AM
Hear, hear, Nancy!
Tea Party member in Alabama -- Rainy Day Patriots is our handle, and here's out website:
www.rainydaypatriots.org
If Romney wins, I see our group and many other TP groups focusing on Senate races in the next two years to bolster the conservatives in the upper house. If he loses, same deal -- keep working on the Senate to strengthen conservatives there. But, if Obama wins a good deal of our effort will pivot to the states because they will become the defenders of the federalist system laid out in the Constitution.
We're still here, still motivated, and we're not going away.
JimP| 10.31.12 @ 8:59AM
Is there any support for getting rid of Boehner as Speaker? I think he is the biggest impediment to the TP House members achieving better results than the last two years- not that I'm criticizing them. Given the totality of the circumstances I thought they did pretty well.
Guimo| 10.31.12 @ 9:13AM
Which is why Todd Akin will win the U.S. Senate seat in Missouri.
CrackerHound| 10.31.12 @ 12:02PM
I sure hope so...getting rid of McCaskill will be a big accomplishment. It will send the message that you can run from for your vote for Obamacare, but you can't hide.
When will Washington get it through their thick heads that WE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DO NOT WANT SOCIALIZED MEDICINE...EVER!
fmm| 10.31.12 @ 9:50AM
Hopefully a conservative rep will follow Senator DeMint's efforts to find and vet true conservative candidates for the senate in future house elections. Additionally, the formation of a conservative caucus in both houses would go a long way toward putting teeth in their programs. Working to change the complexion of the members to conservative ideas is the way to save the country.
lsudolemite| 10.31.12 @ 9:54AM
If Romney takes the WH and the GOP claims the Senate, it'll be interesting to hear Boehner's new set of excuses for not accomplishing anything since his pathetic, self-pitying "1/2 of 1/3 of gov't" argument would be thrown out the window.
Anthony| 10.31.12 @ 9:59AM
First we get rid of Obozo and his fellow Marxists, then we deal with the R establishment.
So little time, so many asses to kick.
Pecos Pete| 10.31.12 @ 11:55AM
Anthony: Amen!
Al Adab| 10.31.12 @ 1:17PM
Always the case as the GOP continues to betray the Conservative Movement.
That said, without GOP control of the Senate, to say nothing of the 60 needed, repeal of Obiecare, the end of the automatic tax increases set for Jan 1, and any possibility of having a federal budget for a change goes out the window. Reid, (who stole his re-election in NV) will continue to control what comes to the floor.
FL_Libertarian| 10.31.12 @ 8:26PM
51 senators are needed to enact budgetary items.
Gary B| 10.31.12 @ 9:00PM
Anthony: Amen!
Controse| 10.31.12 @ 11:44AM
It must be impressed upon returning Tea Party members/sympathizers that they must make every effort to replace John Boehner as Speaker of the House. That travesty of democracy on display at the Republican National Convention disqualifies him.
Remember how the teleprompter told him the result of the just taken voice vote. Remember how the teleprompter got the vote wrong but he read it anyway. People, this is Soviet Politburo behavior.
Conservatives must restore democracy to the Republican party and it begins with removing John Boehner from leadership.
CrackerHound| 10.31.12 @ 12:10PM
Ted Cruz (R.TX.) would make a good speaker one day. I agree that Boener needs to go.
It won't be long before Democrats will be formulating their positions based on how the Tea Party movement stands....and this is the ultimate goal of the Tea Party. To influence both sides of the aisle towards a more constitutional government. We are only starting with Republicans and have said all along that we have no alligiance to party.
It will be nice to see the Tea Party "primarying" Democrat politicians one day.
eloris| 10.31.12 @ 2:29PM
Uh..GL with that.
Al Adab| 10.31.12 @ 4:37PM
Hmmm, why not. Infiltrate and recruit Classical Liberal Democrats. There might be a few left like Scoop Jackson.
Albert Constantine Jr.| 10.31.12 @ 6:32PM
When Webb won in Virginia in 2006, I thought that was what he was up to, but I was very wrong.
Sean| 10.31.12 @ 9:07PM
Doubt Ted Cruz would leave the Senate to go to the House.
Old Guy | 10.31.12 @ 12:46PM
The "Old Bulls" are hard at work in Indiana. The Indy daily paper political reporter dragged Has-been Hudnut back from New York to tell people not to vote for Mourdock and Lugar has identified himself as a bitter old man who does everything but give any active support to his successor - including demanding that his picture be taken out of a Mourdock piece. The paper, now a Gannett rag, has actually endorsed his opponent.
Stan Redmond| 10.31.12 @ 1:38PM
It should be"bring out your Boehners"
Boehner has to go!!!
atilla| 10.31.12 @ 2:15PM
THE TEA PARTY IS THE BEST THING TO HAVE HAPPENED IN THIS COUNTRY SINCE THE CONSTITUTION WAS WRITTEN.
PLEASE, LET US LISTEN TO THEM AND ELECT PERSONS THAT HONOR THE SACRIFICES OF OUR FOREFATHERS. (REMEMBER THEIR GUTS IN THEIR PLEDGES)....SACRED HONOR, FORTUNES AND LIVES!!!
DO NOT , REPEAT, DO NOT INCLUDE MENENDEZ AND LAUTENBURG, TWO INFAMOUS COWARDS AMONG THEM.
DEFEAT LAUTENBURG AND MENENDEZ ON NOVEMBER 6TH 2012 FOR THE SAKE OF YOUR CHILDREN AND GRANDCHILDREN..THANK YOU!
I LOVE THE TEA PARTY AND EVERYTHING IT STANDS FOR.
I HOPE YOU DO ALSO.
IF YOUR CHILDREN OR YOUR GRANDCHILDREN WANT THEIR JOBS OR THEIR RETIREMENT FUNDS BACK,....IT'S A NO-BRAINER......
VOTE ROMNEY & RYAN TO "GIT 'ER DONE'
LUVYA ,
GENE HAUBER
BRICK, NJ
Occam's Tool| 11.2.12 @ 8:02PM
Straight Republican for me---including Chip Cravaack. And against Klobuchar.